Posted on 08/30/2006 11:11:16 AM PDT by okstate
TRENTON, N.J. - The U.S. Senate race between Republican Tom Kean Jr. and Democrat Robert Menendez is virtually deadlocked, but if voters weren't so concerned about the war in Iraq, Kean could hold a clear lead, according to a poll released Wednesday.
A portion of Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind Poll designed to test the impact of national issues on the race indicated that if the war were not a factor, Kean could be leading Menendez by 47-36 percent. As it stands, however, 43 percent of voters polled said they favor Kean to 39 percent for Menendez, a difference that matches the poll's sampling error margin and makes the race a virtual tie.
(Excerpt) Read more at mercurynews.com ...
Bravo Sierra
It is looking more and more like a status quo election and with a few breaks we might even pick up a seat or two.
I've been also thinking along those lines.
If we vote, and get most other GOP voters to vote, we will do fine.
Wow. The dude has a 4 point lead in NJ! This is great news.
This is the first time any GOP challenger is leading a Democrat, I think. It is good news, even if Kean is no conservative. If he wins, it will go a long way towards offsetting possible losses elsewhere.
"Those asked about Bush and Iraq first gave Menendez a 41-39 percent edge. But respondents not asked to think about the war first gave favored Kean, 47-36 percent."
Here's the problem with this poll and others. The real truth about the war is that sadly enough, people DON'T CARE about it EITHER way. When the rodents turn out against the war they get 200 or less people no matter where. When Americans are asked to turn out to support the war the turn out is about 200 people.
NO MATTER WHAT THE "Experts" in the Beltway have talked themselves into believing, people just don't care about the war. When open ended surveys ask what issues are important to people, they say things like : the economy is bad, the war is bad, this is bad that is bad. These are answers from people who are not paying attention. They are pleasing the questioner. How can ANY thinking American say the economy is bad?
So the ratpollsters use the war question as a way of working for rat candidates. They are, in effect, saying "Hey you're losing, so you better tie your opponent to the war because nothing else is working."
Menedez is a thief. He was a thief when he was the mayor of Union and he was the Hudson County rat party's bag man for 12 years. Voters know this. But this is New Jersey where voters are dumber than in any other state.
Regardless of these bull shiite polls, if the brain dead voters in NJ are sick of ratcrap, menedez is gone. If they will eat another hot steaming plate of rat droppings, Kean is gone. It really is as simple as that.
This is huge new, because a) he's had a steady lead, and b) because I think ALL the polls are, for some weird reason, undersampling Pubbies. If Santorum and Burns hold, and we lose Chafee, right now there is no change. But I think we'll also get MN for +1. Now, if Chafee has more starch in his drawers than I think, it could really get interesting . . . and downright suicidal for the Dems.
I'll say again: I don't understand why, but ALL---that is EVERY ONE---of the polls this time out for some reason is undercounting Republicans. NONE of the polls is 2-3% close to where the GOP vote really is. So if you add 2-3% to all the GOP candidates, then we'll talk who might lose a seat. In 1996, every one of the polls---every single one---was off in Clinton's direction by anywhere from 1% to 6%. It's not "randomness," becuase not one single poll had Dole higher than where he finished, and if it was just an accident, one or two would have been off in Dole's favor. So there is some phenomena here no one has figured out yet.
Its unfortunate that Ginty has lost, but you can't hand the election to Menendez. You may not like having to simply take the lesser of two evils, but its a fact of life. Fight the RINO's in the primary, but always fight the RATS in November.
Is this the same Tom Kean who led 9/11 committee whitewash for the Democrats?
No, it's his son who is running in NJ, I believe.
Unfortunately, I still have a bad feeling that we are going to have another big terrorist incident before November that will drastically shift the vote further to the GOP.
Since NJ is Latino north I doubt that Kean has a real chance war or not.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.