Replies

I agree with the complaints of the undersampling. However, NJ is an exception to the rule. It is one of maybe three states where the vote tally always favors the Democrat candidate more than the polls indicated. I think part of the problem is the "independents," who aren't really independent but Democrats who don't want to be identified with a party.

Undecideds in NJ always break overwhelmingly for the Democrat. New Jersey is very unique in that respect. That's why I need to see Kean 8-10 points ahead to believe he'll win a close race. Every election I hear about the chance of a Republican winning NJ, and every election they lose by double-digits when the tally actually comes in.
I really hope Kean builds some mojo.

16 posted on 08/30/2006 3:36:26 PM PDT by TitansAFC ("Life is just one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead.")

I hear what you're saying about NJ.

Unfortunately, I still have a bad feeling that we are going to have another big terrorist incident before November that will drastically shift the vote further to the GOP.

Right. I also think Kean is a weak candidate, although this is based on one poor debate performance a few months ago.

We're better off sending our $$$ to Santorum, Burns, DeWine (I know, I know), Talent, and Mark Kennedy.