Live Thread - Hurricane Katrina, Part IV (Update: Now a Category 5 )

NOAA - NHC ^ | 27 August 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane warnings and watches are posted. Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast models continue to converge upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this very large and dangerous storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. There have been reports of coastal animals leaving in droves for higher ground. Meanwhile, New Orleans continues to suggest that residents evacuate.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:
copy/paste into player:

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Gabz]

Glad you checked in and are OK - thanks for the local update.

[silentknight]

A cat four is NOT worse than a cat 5. Whoever said that doesn't know what they are talking about.

[AntiGuv]

Well, that makes no sense. A Category 5 is worse than a Category 4 by every measure.

[M. Espinola]

A fine historic hurricane link with clear tracking maps for each listed hurricane:

Hurricane History

[Sally'sConcerns]

After looking at your graphic...is it self-righteous for me to ask why anyone lives there?

How far inland would you suggest people who work to provide oil, gas and commerce through the ports live? If memory serves me, Houston also is below sea level. Where should those that work in ports live?

[Revel]

Here are the levee height maps if you can make sense of them. I don't know this area enough to figure them out.

http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/pao/response/amaps.asp

[MplsSteve]

I was kinda wondering that too. I'm not too familiar with hurricanes - but I wonder if it'd be possible for a hurricane to ramp itself up too quickly before landfall - and therefore be unable to sustain itself?

Anyone out there know?

[wardaddy]

It means I was only 11 years of age when Camille struck only about 25 miles east of where they now predict this one to make landfall...eye-wise.

August 17, 1969

we were moved into a gym basement in the middle of the night in 100mph plus winds

the next day, my dad picked me up to go the few miles down to the coast for relief work...he was a general contractor...

most folks who lived thru that learned.

the surge and winds were records

[UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide]

If I heard correctly, somebody (sorry, didn't catch his name)at WDSU 6 just said a Cat 4 is worse than a Cat 5. How can this be?

As a blanket statement, no. But the category is based on only one dimension, maximum sustained wind speed in the eye wall. Some lower category storms however, spread high winds over larger areas than a more intense but more tightly wound stronger storm. But if you happen to get the eye, you want a 4 rather than 5.

[oceanview]

what I was saying was, often times the strength at sea is not the strength at landfall. the timing of the eyewall replacement cycle seems to be a factor in that.

[Gabz]

Night, Blam.........keep us posted.

[Pyro7480]

The cats are telling you, "Get the hell out of Dodge!"

[jpsb]

"I still don't see from the radar loops, alot of northern component to its movement"

That what I an waiting to see to. All models in good agreement, and NHC is excellent in thier forecasting, so I think I will not worry about this one.

[nwctwx]

The fact that is still hasn't turned north is bad for NO. The 0z tracks shifted enough to make the track over NO less severe as far as flooding goes. Winds, well... that's going to be a problem regardless it seems.

Eyewall replacements typically last ~18 hours, from beginning to end. Considering we are 36-48 hours out... it's possible that we will be in the middle of another as it comes ashore. I'm trying to look for reasons the storm wont be a catastrophe, and the only ones that come to mind are if it manages to find a relatively less populated area. I think 140-150 sustained at landfall is a good bet... ~155-165 possible if it comes in during another ERC.

[fatima]

OK I am laughing.Your right :) got to go to bed-love you much,night.

[rwfromkansas]

Not really, but hurricanes do weird things.

Now, it could undergo an eyewall replacement, which would weaken it, but this storm has not been hurt too much by the cycles. It even gained strength with some pretty crappy eye structure today if you can believe that!

[Heatseeker]

ROFL! I have a "Cat 4" too but no pix handy.

[Sprite518]

Well its official now...Cat 4 ground zero the Big Easy

[Prophet in the wilderness]

Liberal/Democrats should NEVER be elected to ANY leadership positions.

[simon says what]

I still don't see from the radar loops, alot of northern component to its movement...

What radar loop are you using ? All of the radar sites I go to have it too far out in the gulf to see now.