The fact that is still hasn't turned north is bad for NO. The 0z tracks shifted enough to make the track over NO less severe as far as flooding goes. Winds, well... that's going to be a problem regardless it seems.
Eyewall replacements typically last ~18 hours, from beginning to end. Considering we are 36-48 hours out... it's possible that we will be in the middle of another as it comes ashore. I'm trying to look for reasons the storm wont be a catastrophe, and the only ones that come to mind are if it manages to find a relatively less populated area. I think 140-150 sustained at landfall is a good bet... ~155-165 possible if it comes in during another ERC.
you mean RIC? How would it come in with much stronger winds during the ERC?
And here I thought I was just getting paranoid about how bad this is...
Sending prayers from Sarasota!
Thx for your insight. I'm not not a hurricane expert but I've called these things correct before with some fuzzy logic in summing up all the trends, patterns and variables.
I got in a debate with a bunch of experts here before the last big Cat 5 developed, though on that one I also relied on a solitary report from one expert that no one else had known of. He was making way too much sense to ignore so I tried to sound the alarm early.