Live Thread - Hurricane Katrina, Part IV (Update: Now a Category 5 )

NOAA - NHC ^ | 27 August 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane warnings and watches are posted. Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast models continue to converge upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this very large and dangerous storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. There have been reports of coastal animals leaving in droves for higher ground. Meanwhile, New Orleans continues to suggest that residents evacuate.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:
copy/paste into player:

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[commish]

New Orleans is looking down the gun barrell and the trigger is halfway depressed. This is not going to be pretty. SST's are 90-92 degrees all the way to landfall (this is all along the coast), no sheer, perfect anticyclone aloft. THis is a once evry 30-50 years storm.

If we are luckyshe may undergo an ERC right before landfall but even then you are only talk dropping her to 140-150, and that is if she does not intensify any further.

Camille's lowest pressure was 905 MB and measured 909 and landfall. Gilbert is the record holder at 888. Andrew was at 922. This is an epic storm folks.

THat said, I will go out on a limb here. New orleans will get slammed but take a direct hit. The Trough over the great lakes will nudge katrina a little east of North right before landfall ---- COMMISH PREDICTION : Initial Landfall, Mouth of the Mississippi, LA with a grazing blow, with final landfall between Biloxi, MS and MObile Bay, AL.

I won't predict she is coming ashore as a CAT 5, but we will need an ERC and some weakening by the grazing of LA to get her down to CAT 4. At worst she will be the strongest GUlf Landfall since Camille, and Strongest US since Andrew. There is a 50-50 chance she will eclipse Andrew and Camille is not out of the picture.

[IndyTiger]

If the levees are breached and New Orleans flooded, the structural integrity of every building in the city will be threatened.

[kabar]

Exactly right. They should not give people a choice. If additional lift capability is needed, then let's have military aircraft and free public transportation to the airport ASAP.

[oceanview]

yes it will make a difference, getting hit by the part of the eye with 75MPH hurricane force winds, is a MAJOR difference then getting hit with 150MPH winds closer to the eye.

[Founding Father]

WWL newscasters begging people to head out east on I-10 to Slidell then north and back west.

[steveegg]

Get your gas NOW!!!!

[kenth]

Dear God. The mayor: "We're going to rise to the occasion"

Then do it. You should have done it hours ago. Moron.

[Amelia]

Try CNN, Brad Huffines (used to be in Savannah) is doing a good job.

[Dog Gone]

907 mb. OMG.

[NautiNurse]

Thank you for your excellent analysis.

[TomGuy]

They opened the contraflow lanes at 4PM yesterday. You just can't see it from those video cam views.

Thanks. That is good to know. Seeing that empty 6-lanes was unnerving.

[Petronski]

Can anyone tell me the (a) altitude of the Superdome and (b) the height of the Superdome?

It seems to me that thing could become the worlds largest enclosed lake.

[Laurita]

See my post #1626. I believe it's the Southwest quadrant that is the worst. It would have to make landfall on the other side of Biloxi to spare NO the backwash. It would be better if it went west. They've been predicting this one since my family moved to Southeast Louisiana in 1979. All the pieces are in place. If it stalls and hits shore at high tide, things are going to be very grim.

[LibSnubber]

"If your analysis is correct then I hope those using Pres. Bush as cover for political gain will be judge harshly in this life and the next."

It's already started. Heard two libs yesterday blaming Bush for the severity of destruction about to take place because he didn't give us enough money for the coastal restoration projects. One was Congressman Charlie Melancon and can't remember the other one at the moment (Mary Landrieu, perhaps). They aren't capable of taking responsibility for their actions (or lack thereof). It's ALWAYS someone else's fault. And wait and watch for the bozos who will be praising Blanco and Nagin for their work.

[LibFreeOrDie]

About an hour ago, TWC said tropical storm force winds (35mph) will start 6-9 hours.

I heard that when the wind reaches 39mph, they close the Causeway across the Lake. One less escape route...

[Aggie Mama]

!!!!!

[leadpenny]

President Bush to speak at Noon ET, re Katrina.

[winodog]

Why is nobody talking about this? I understand lives are at stake but this should be a big story as well.

[IndyTiger]

If people are stuck on the roads when winds are anywhere near 175mph, their cars will be thrown around along with all of the other debris.

Once darkness falls tonight, if roads are still gridlocked with tropical force winds, it will be mass panic. OMG.

[oceanview]

I wondered that myself - should there be military air assets moved in there now to fly people out.

Bush is giving a speech on the iraqi constitution at 12:30PM. what is wrong with the ehite house communications team, this hurricane could be worse then 9-11, and he is going to talk about iraq today of all days.