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Posted on 08/27/2005 8:05:55 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane warnings and watches are posted. Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast models continue to converge upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this very large and dangerous storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. There have been reports of coastal animals leaving in droves for higher ground. Meanwhile, New Orleans continues to suggest that residents evacuate.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida
Images:
New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait
Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop
Northwest Florida Long Range Radar
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics
Live streaming:
copy/paste into player:
WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12
Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
---|---|---|---|---|
Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
If we are luckyshe may undergo an ERC right before landfall but even then you are only talk dropping her to 140-150, and that is if she does not intensify any further.
Camille's lowest pressure was 905 MB and measured 909 and landfall. Gilbert is the record holder at 888. Andrew was at 922. This is an epic storm folks.
THat said, I will go out on a limb here. New orleans will get slammed but take a direct hit. The Trough over the great lakes will nudge katrina a little east of North right before landfall ---- COMMISH PREDICTION : Initial Landfall, Mouth of the Mississippi, LA with a grazing blow, with final landfall between Biloxi, MS and MObile Bay, AL.
I won't predict she is coming ashore as a CAT 5, but we will need an ERC and some weakening by the grazing of LA to get her down to CAT 4. At worst she will be the strongest GUlf Landfall since Camille, and Strongest US since Andrew. There is a 50-50 chance she will eclipse Andrew and Camille is not out of the picture.
If the levees are breached and New Orleans flooded, the structural integrity of every building in the city will be threatened.
Exactly right. They should not give people a choice. If additional lift capability is needed, then let's have military aircraft and free public transportation to the airport ASAP.
yes it will make a difference, getting hit by the part of the eye with 75MPH hurricane force winds, is a MAJOR difference then getting hit with 150MPH winds closer to the eye.
WWL newscasters begging people to head out east on I-10 to Slidell then north and back west.
Get your gas NOW!!!!
Dear God. The mayor: "We're going to rise to the occasion"
Then do it. You should have done it hours ago. Moron.
Try CNN, Brad Huffines (used to be in Savannah) is doing a good job.
907 mb. OMG.
Thank you for your excellent analysis.
Can anyone tell me the (a) altitude of the Superdome and (b) the height of the Superdome?
It seems to me that thing could become the worlds largest enclosed lake.
See my post #1626. I believe it's the Southwest quadrant that is the worst. It would have to make landfall on the other side of Biloxi to spare NO the backwash. It would be better if it went west. They've been predicting this one since my family moved to Southeast Louisiana in 1979. All the pieces are in place. If it stalls and hits shore at high tide, things are going to be very grim.
"If your analysis is correct then I hope those using Pres. Bush as cover for political gain will be judge harshly in this life and the next."
It's already started. Heard two libs yesterday blaming Bush for the severity of destruction about to take place because he didn't give us enough money for the coastal restoration projects. One was Congressman Charlie Melancon and can't remember the other one at the moment (Mary Landrieu, perhaps). They aren't capable of taking responsibility for their actions (or lack thereof). It's ALWAYS someone else's fault. And wait and watch for the bozos who will be praising Blanco and Nagin for their work.
I heard that when the wind reaches 39mph, they close the Causeway across the Lake. One less escape route...
!!!!!
President Bush to speak at Noon ET, re Katrina.
Why is nobody talking about this? I understand lives are at stake but this should be a big story as well.
Once darkness falls tonight, if roads are still gridlocked with tropical force winds, it will be mass panic. OMG.
I wondered that myself - should there be military air assets moved in there now to fly people out.
Bush is giving a speech on the iraqi constitution at 12:30PM. what is wrong with the ehite house communications team, this hurricane could be worse then 9-11, and he is going to talk about iraq today of all days.
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