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(Absolutely) Final Poll: Slim Bush Lead (Early Voters: 54% Bush -- not good news for Kerry)
CBS News ^
| November 2, 2004
| By Jarrett Murphy, CBSNews.com producer
Posted on 11/02/2004 4:59:30 AM PST by JohnHuang2
A
CBS News poll taken up to the eve of Election Day 2004 found the electorate as it has been for weeks and as it was four years ago sharply divided.
The telephone survey of 1,600 adults, which was conducted from Friday to Monday, found President Bush with a 49-47 percent lead over Sen. John Kerry among likely voters including people leaning toward a candidate.
That lead was within the poll's three-point margin of error.
Among all registered voters, it is only a one-point Bush edge - 48 percent to 47 percent.
Ralph Nader draws 1 percent and 3 percent of respondents said they were undecided.
A
CBS News/New York Times poll released Sunday showed Mr. Bush with a 49-46 percent lead. Another CBS News survey,
issued on Monday, had the president with a slim 47-46 percent advantage.
On Monday, when the CBS poll tightened, a senior Bush adviser said that campaign's internal polls showed no movement to Kerry over the weekend. On Sunday, the campaign indicated that the poll showing Mr. Bush up by three points mirrored their internal surveys.
A senior Kerry adviser said in an e-mail response on Monday, "We believe we are slightly ahead."
Because of the margin of error, the candidates were essentially tied over all three days and all three polls.
"There is no other way to describe this election except as close," CBS pollsters conclude.
Other national polls echoed CBS' findings, showing statistical ties between the candidates.
A Fox poll released Monday gave Kerry a 48-46 percent lead among likely voters. A Harris poll had the president up by 4 points. Marist depicted Kerry up by a point, as did Reuters/Zogby. NBC/Wall Street Journal and ABC/Washington Post polls gave Mr. Bush a 1-point lead. Gallup showed a tie.
In the
final days of the race, all the surveys have exposed the same, key questions that voting taking place Tuesday will answer:
- Are the models of "likely voters" ignoring newly registered voters whom pollsters believe lean heavily Democratic?
- Which way will the few remaining undecided voters break?
- Does it matter that Mr. Bush has not broken 50 percent a benchmark for an incumbent president?
In the campaign's final days, the parties were focusing on their "get out the vote" efforts to target their respective bases, rather than focusing on the small number of undecided voters.
Recent polls have often shown Kerry leading among registered voters even as he trailed the president in the narrower pool of likely voters.
The campaigns disagree on which way undecided voters will break. Bush pollster Matthew Dowd said undecideds at worst would split their votes between the two parties and may even be "slightly breaking towards us." But Democrats, citing history, said undecided voters would support the challenger, not the incumbent.
In the CBS News poll, the 3 percent of votes who are truly undecided and joined by another 6 percent who believe they could change their minds.
These voters tend to think economic issues are more important than national security, believe the country is heading in the wrong direction and oppose the war in Iraq all trends that seem to favor Kerry.
However, among all voters, independents are split evenly between the Democrat and Republican tickets.
Men favor Mr. Bush and women prefer Kerry but the gender gap is smaller than it was four years ago. Twenty percent of voters say they have already cast ballots, and 54 percent of those voters say they picked Mr. Bush.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the poll found that the country is also divided on how it would react to a win by either candidate. Forty-five percent of registered voters say they'd be "excited" or "optimistic" about a Bush. An equal number feel the same way about a Kerry win.
Answering they'd be "concerned" or "scared" are 54 percent for Mr. Bush and 53 percent for Kerry.
TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: polls
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To: SheLion
How about little Tommy Daschle too?......maybe he can officially start working for his wife now.
To: Use It Or Lose It
>>Question for all: Why do these morons think that because someone has a cell phone, they're automatically a RAT/Kerry supporter?<<
We're talking about people with cell phones only, and no Land lines. The question is why would someone have no Land line? Bad credit, illegal residency status, transience, etc. The funny thing is though I do have several Republican friends with no Land line.
Married with children (the Bush demo) has a land line.
22
posted on
11/02/2004 5:23:18 AM PST
by
dangus
To: HisKingdomWillAbolishSinDeath
Yep. As for MSM....I say we shame 'em at every turn after today......
To: VOR78
If the early results are true, Terry MacAwful flat-out lied on Fox this morning. I'm losing confidence in that guy! ;)
To: ninonitti
How about little Tommy Daschle too?......maybe he can officially start working for his wife now. heheh! I know what you mean! :)
25
posted on
11/02/2004 5:27:39 AM PST
by
SheLion
( Rove knew that sKerry was a man that stood for nothing and therefore would fall for anything.)
To: Use It Or Lose It
"The Young Vote Will Win it for Kerry." If the 18-29 y/o's turn out, landslide for Kerry."
This is so much nonsense. My kids are voting Republican excepting my liberal daughter. She is outvoted 3-1 among siblings.
26
posted on
11/02/2004 5:29:12 AM PST
by
Luke21
(Christ is wonderful)
To: JohnHuang2
I voted this morning at 6:40 AM and there were 94 people ahead of me. When I left the parking lot was still filling. Good turn out for this area.
27
posted on
11/02/2004 5:32:05 AM PST
by
AD from SpringBay
(We have the government we allow and deserve.)
To: JohnHuang2
Democrats don't vote early because they are too busy doing illegal telephone push polls, harassing people outside the polling places and can't vote on their way to work because they don't have a job (it's all Bush's fault). LOL
28
posted on
11/02/2004 5:32:34 AM PST
by
Amanda King
(Fritz Hollings has left the room.)
To: HisKingdomWillAbolishSinDeath
I always thought the Dem party AT ONE TIME was a "reasonable" group of people with different beliefs - you know..for the working man, social programs for the poor and truly disadvantaged, etc.
However - the party's been hijacked and pulled so far left over the past decade that it's now totally off the map.
I wonder what my (now deceased) Father-in-law would have done this election. He was a very Christian man, raised his family to be God-loving people but was a Democrat through and through. My wife and I actually talk about it often..
I'd wager that there are MANY today just like my wife's father. People who once WERE Dems, but now can't bring themselves to vote for those who advocate partial birth abortion, gay "marriage" (man, I just can't bring myself to write that), and the other far left, whacko socialism that today's Democrat party stands for.
These people are going to vote for W in this election, IMHO. Add in W's base, and it's going our way this time around - solidly.
That is, unless the Rats are successful with their vote fraud in PA, OH, FLA.
29
posted on
11/02/2004 5:34:18 AM PST
by
jstolzen
(All it takes for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing - Edmund Burke)
To: JohnHuang2
Are the models of "likely voters" ignoring newly registered voters whom pollsters believe lean heavily Democratic? This has been disputed. I heard Jeb Bush claim that Republicans have actually registered more new voters than Democrats. Republicans just haven't blown their own horn about it.
Also, the pollster's methodology of throwing 9 out of 10 U's Kerry's way is just not realistic.
30
posted on
11/02/2004 5:40:16 AM PST
by
randita
To: discipler
"We fully understand that when you count the votes, in a legitimate manner, it appears that President Bush is in the lead. This is because it is still early in the day. Many Kerry Supporters intend on voting twice or three times and that is never reflected in these phone polls."
LOL
31
posted on
11/02/2004 5:49:23 AM PST
by
traviskicks
(http://www.neoperspectives.com/johnkerry.htm)
To: dangus
We're talking about people with cell phones only, and no Land lines. The question is why would someone have no Land line? Bad credit, illegal residency status, transience, etc.
Answer #1 - COST.
Especially if you're unlucky enough to live where that &^%^& SBC has bought out your local phone company. Answer #2 - COST
I used to work with a lady that had an out of control teenage daughter. Her Land line phone bill was running $400 a month. Her kid was involved with some bad people, wound up being arrested, etc. and kept accepting collect calls from her black 'boyfriend' who was in PRISON. Her and her hubby finally canceled the land line (SBC) and went with a multiple Cell Phone package saving a ton of money.
Answer #3 - Telemarketing
Even with the 'no call list', some telemarketing calls still come through on a land line because people don't read those little privacy statements they get from the Bank or Credit Card Co's. With a cell phone, you don't get any - for now anyway.
There's been many times when I've opened up our SBC bill and thought of canceling myself.
32
posted on
11/02/2004 5:55:56 AM PST
by
Condor51
(May God have mercy upon my enemies, because I won't. - Gen G Patton)
To: JohnHuang2
Twenty percent of voters say they have already cast ballots, and 54 percent of those voters say they picked Mr. Bush.
Twenty percent of voters say they have already cast ballots, and 54 percent of those voters say they picked Mr. Bush.
Twenty percent of voters say they have already cast ballots, and 54 percent of those voters say they picked Mr. Bush.
33
posted on
11/02/2004 5:59:05 AM PST
by
Porterville
(If you see a stinkin' commie in the snow covered hill, a landslide will take it down)
To: JohnHuang2
Wish the rest of the country was like Mississippi this morning - wife and I voted and of the 150-200 people in line waiting for the place to open, everyone except the dozen or so Democrats were upbeat and having a good time.
34
posted on
11/02/2004 6:04:36 AM PST
by
trebb
(Ain't God good . . .)
To: Porterville
Historically, absentee ballots favor Republicans, because they are the guys who have to travel and/or work.
I'm not sure if that's the case now, or if it applies to early voting, because the whole situation is changing.
35
posted on
11/02/2004 6:04:42 AM PST
by
Cicero
(Marcus Tullius)
To: JohnHuang2
Twenty percent of voters say they have already cast ballots, and 54 percent of those voters say they picked Mr. Bush. This is actually pretty good. I summed up the votes for 2000 in all the states that do early voting. BUSH won 53% four years ago. So it looks like BUSH is trending up from four years ago, even with the unpresidented GOTV efforts from SOROS and his clan.
36
posted on
11/02/2004 6:08:34 AM PST
by
11th_VA
(VRWC Local 1077)
To: b4its2late
Internally, the polls showed Reagan ahead and a growing lead, but the media was stunned by the margin of victory, and the huge (hugh) number of RAT Senators defeated.
37
posted on
11/02/2004 6:09:13 AM PST
by
jps098
To: jps098
Thanks for the info.
38
posted on
11/02/2004 6:11:32 AM PST
by
b4its2late
(John John Kerry Edwards change positions more often than a Nevada prostitute!!!)
To: dangus
The good news is that the early vote does not show this massive influx of young, liberal voters who are Kerry's hope. I really expected that they would show up early or stay home.They're still asleep.
39
posted on
11/02/2004 6:15:51 AM PST
by
CedarDave
(Served with pride alongside the Swifties, USCG patrol boat, Coastal Division 13, Viet Nam, 1967-68.)
To: Grannymay
Actually, given McAwful's track record...I hope he keeps his job.
40
posted on
11/02/2004 6:16:56 AM PST
by
Tulane
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