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(Absolutely) Final Poll: Slim Bush Lead (Early Voters: 54% Bush -- not good news for Kerry)
CBS News ^
| November 2, 2004
| By Jarrett Murphy, CBSNews.com producer
Posted on 11/02/2004 4:59:30 AM PST by JohnHuang2
A
CBS News poll taken up to the eve of Election Day 2004 found the electorate as it has been for weeks and as it was four years ago sharply divided.
The telephone survey of 1,600 adults, which was conducted from Friday to Monday, found President Bush with a 49-47 percent lead over Sen. John Kerry among likely voters including people leaning toward a candidate.
That lead was within the poll's three-point margin of error.
Among all registered voters, it is only a one-point Bush edge - 48 percent to 47 percent.
Ralph Nader draws 1 percent and 3 percent of respondents said they were undecided.
A
CBS News/New York Times poll released Sunday showed Mr. Bush with a 49-46 percent lead. Another CBS News survey,
issued on Monday, had the president with a slim 47-46 percent advantage.
On Monday, when the CBS poll tightened, a senior Bush adviser said that campaign's internal polls showed no movement to Kerry over the weekend. On Sunday, the campaign indicated that the poll showing Mr. Bush up by three points mirrored their internal surveys.
A senior Kerry adviser said in an e-mail response on Monday, "We believe we are slightly ahead."
Because of the margin of error, the candidates were essentially tied over all three days and all three polls.
"There is no other way to describe this election except as close," CBS pollsters conclude.
Other national polls echoed CBS' findings, showing statistical ties between the candidates.
A Fox poll released Monday gave Kerry a 48-46 percent lead among likely voters. A Harris poll had the president up by 4 points. Marist depicted Kerry up by a point, as did Reuters/Zogby. NBC/Wall Street Journal and ABC/Washington Post polls gave Mr. Bush a 1-point lead. Gallup showed a tie.
In the
final days of the race, all the surveys have exposed the same, key questions that voting taking place Tuesday will answer:
- Are the models of "likely voters" ignoring newly registered voters whom pollsters believe lean heavily Democratic?
- Which way will the few remaining undecided voters break?
- Does it matter that Mr. Bush has not broken 50 percent a benchmark for an incumbent president?
In the campaign's final days, the parties were focusing on their "get out the vote" efforts to target their respective bases, rather than focusing on the small number of undecided voters.
Recent polls have often shown Kerry leading among registered voters even as he trailed the president in the narrower pool of likely voters.
The campaigns disagree on which way undecided voters will break. Bush pollster Matthew Dowd said undecideds at worst would split their votes between the two parties and may even be "slightly breaking towards us." But Democrats, citing history, said undecided voters would support the challenger, not the incumbent.
In the CBS News poll, the 3 percent of votes who are truly undecided and joined by another 6 percent who believe they could change their minds.
These voters tend to think economic issues are more important than national security, believe the country is heading in the wrong direction and oppose the war in Iraq all trends that seem to favor Kerry.
However, among all voters, independents are split evenly between the Democrat and Republican tickets.
Men favor Mr. Bush and women prefer Kerry but the gender gap is smaller than it was four years ago. Twenty percent of voters say they have already cast ballots, and 54 percent of those voters say they picked Mr. Bush.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the poll found that the country is also divided on how it would react to a win by either candidate. Forty-five percent of registered voters say they'd be "excited" or "optimistic" about a Bush. An equal number feel the same way about a Kerry win.
Answering they'd be "concerned" or "scared" are 54 percent for Mr. Bush and 53 percent for Kerry.
TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: polls
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To: JohnHuang2
But, of course, today's poll is the only one that matters!
To: All
Driveby observation: For the record, Gore led Bush by 1% in this CBS News poll at exactly this point. The fact that Kerry still trails Bush is good news for Bush but elections are decided by the Electoral College, not the popular vote, so get out and vote.
Later, y'all.
To: anniegetyourgun
To: JohnHuang2
Just watched McAuliff on FOX say that he thinks Kerry will win with 300 Electoral Votes. YEAH RIGHT! Wonder what he's been smoking! He also predicted Daschle will win. I don't believe that either. One of the best things about a Bush win is McAuliffe will be looking for a NEW JOB! That man is a Snake!
5
posted on
11/02/2004 5:02:55 AM PST
by
Grannymay
To: JohnHuang2
6
posted on
11/02/2004 5:03:20 AM PST
by
smiley
(Watch out Dems! I'm a William F. Buckley Conservative!!)
To: JohnHuang2
Does it matter that Mr. Bush has not broken 50 percent a benchmark for an incumbent president? Does it matter Kerry can't get more than 47%?
7
posted on
11/02/2004 5:03:31 AM PST
by
Brett66
(Dan Rather, the most busted man in America.)
To: JohnHuang2
I don't see any reference to early voters in the article.
8
posted on
11/02/2004 5:05:52 AM PST
by
js1138
(D*mn, I Missed!)
To: Brett66
Did Clinton ever get 50%?
To: JohnHuang2
and 54 percent of those voters say they picked Mr. Bush And I think this is the % that will hold, 54-45 with 1% to 3rd parties.
They have been padding Kerry with the undecided vote and undersampling Republicans.
We already have a real 3% poll and it shows Bush with a strong lead, not a narrow one.
To: JohnHuang2; All
Finally the last Frelling poll!
11
posted on
11/02/2004 5:07:55 AM PST
by
KevinDavis
(Let the meek inherit the Earth, the rest of us will explore the stars!)
To: JohnHuang2
>>Driveby observation: For the record, Gore led Bush by 1% in this CBS News poll at exactly this point. The fact that Kerry still trails Bush is good news for Bush but elections are decided by the Electoral College, not the popular vote, so get out and vote.
Later, y'all.<<<
Good news.
T4P
To: JohnHuang2
If Bush indeed has 54% of the early vote (and I've seen similar numbers from other pollsters), Kerry is probably done. I strongly suspect that the 'anybody-but-Bush' crowd voted early, registering their discontent at the first possible opportunity. Also, the elderly and unemployed/underemployed are probably more likely to vote early than the working class, and they also favor Kerry. So if these numbers are accurate, I think we're in very good shape.
That said, get out there and vote like its tied. It still very well could be.
13
posted on
11/02/2004 5:11:37 AM PST
by
VOR78
To: Brett66
Bush did broke 50%, what are they talking about?
14
posted on
11/02/2004 5:11:43 AM PST
by
MiamiChef
(Miami saw Fidel hit the ground, now Kerry is next)
To: JohnHuang2
A senior Kerry adviser said in an e-mail response on Monday, "We believe we are slightly ahead." Let me explain what the Kerry adviser is trying to say.
We fully understand that when you count the votes, in a legitimate manner, it appears that President Bush is in the lead. This is because it is still early in the day. Many Kerry Supporters intend on voting twice or three times and that is never reflected in these phone polls.
To: JohnHuang2
When watching/listening to talking heads today, listen for the main talking point for the RATS: Heavy turnout of early voters = Kerry supporters. Why? "No one stands in line for hours to tell someone they're doing a good job." I've heard it three times already and it's early.
Second talking point: "The Young Vote Will Win it for Kerry." If the 18-29 y/o's turn out, landslide for Kerry.
Seen on TV this a.m.: James CarVILE announcing GOP intimidation of black voters before polls open! He is truly a hate-filled, despicable man.
Question for all: Why do these morons think that because someone has a cell phone, they're automatically a RAT/Kerry supporter?
To: anniegetyourgun
I don't want to say the fat ladies singing, because we need everybody to get out there and vote. We need a crushing victory, not just a slim victory, so the Rats will do some serious soul searching on the direction of their rotted party. I'm not talking about the kooks running it. They are totally divorced from reality, and in total denial. I mean the man on the street Democrat. Reform must come from the bottom up, before the top down collapses on them.
Also, the MSM needs needs a serious beating for all the lies and propaganda they shoved on the American people.
17
posted on
11/02/2004 5:13:58 AM PST
by
HisKingdomWillAbolishSinDeath
(Proverbs 10:30 The righteous shall never be removed: but the wicked shall not inhabit the earth.)
To: Grannymay
One of the best things about a Bush win is McAuliffe will be looking for a NEW JOB! That man is a Snake! I heard him too. He's another one I hope we can wipe the floors with. heh!
18
posted on
11/02/2004 5:15:02 AM PST
by
SheLion
( Rove knew that sKerry was a man that stood for nothing and therefore would fall for anything.)
To: JohnHuang2
John,
Any idea on what the polls said in the Reagan landslide just before election day and has polling gotten better, worse or basically unchanged? I know statistics are statistics, but do you think the questions used are either misleading, more difficult or whatever. Thanks.
19
posted on
11/02/2004 5:17:30 AM PST
by
b4its2late
(John John Kerry Edwards change positions more often than a Nevada prostitute!!!)
To: VOR78
The bad news is that the early vote occurs in states which tip to Bush, so the 9% lead is not that big of a deal. Texas alone should skew it that much.
The good news is that the early vote does not show this massive influx of young, liberal voters who are Kerry's hope. I really expected that they would show up early or stay home.
20
posted on
11/02/2004 5:19:20 AM PST
by
dangus
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