If Bush indeed has 54% of the early vote (and I've seen similar numbers from other pollsters), Kerry is probably done. I strongly suspect that the 'anybody-but-Bush' crowd voted early, registering their discontent at the first possible opportunity. Also, the elderly and unemployed/underemployed are probably more likely to vote early than the working class, and they also favor Kerry. So if these numbers are accurate, I think we're in very good shape.
That said, get out there and vote like its tied. It still very well could be.
The bad news is that the early vote occurs in states which tip to Bush, so the 9% lead is not that big of a deal. Texas alone should skew it that much.
The good news is that the early vote does not show this massive influx of young, liberal voters who are Kerry's hope. I really expected that they would show up early or stay home.
If the early results are true, Terry MacAwful flat-out lied on Fox this morning. I'm losing confidence in that guy! ;)
Very good point.