POLL: Kerry Keeps Slim One-point Lead Over Bush

Yahoo News ^ | 10-10-2004 | John Whitesides

[Optimom]

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic challenger John Kerry (news - web sites) held on to a slim one-point lead over President Bush (news - web sites) after Friday's second debate between the White House rivals, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Sunday.

[Optimom]

My first post, took long enough that we may have already. Not to worry, the numbers will come up.

[Thane_Banquo]

Zogby polls are unreliable and lean Democratic. In 2002, Zogby predicted that the Democrats would win the Congressional races.

[Brandon]

The poll of 1,216 likely voters was taken Thursday through Saturday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The final day of polling came after the debate but showed little change in the race.

So only one third of the sample was taken after the debate. Any bounce will probably take a few days to develop anyway, and in a tracking poll it takes even longer, since they hold onto the older numbers for a few days.

[syriacus]

Thanks for posting this. I'm glad to see the poll is mostly from days before the most recent debate.

I hope there will still be a good post-debate bounce for Bush, due to his sharpened message.

[cp124]

=Bush up by 6

[evad]

I'm not sure but is Z-by a....
arab hack
OR
a muslim hack
OR
a muslim arab hack??

[adam_az]

Wonder what the internals are and why this is so diff. than the Rasmussen poll.

[antivenom]

See post 6...

[Dane]

WashPost/ABC tracking poll 10/9/04; Bush 50 Kerry46

Rasmussen 10/9/04; Bush 50 Kerry 46

[TNCMAXQ]

Did I read correctly that Zogby selects his voters at random? This does not sound like it would create an accurate picture. I think the samples should be broken down by demographics. For example, how do we know he isnt calling far more women than men?

Speaking of the gender gap, the ABC poll that has Bush up by 4 is more encouraging. It shows Kerry ahead by only 5 among women, but losing by 14 with men! Taking that average, it would seem that Bush should be farther ahead. On ABC radio they said the 2 were evenly split with independents. That sounds like good news to me since other polls show Bush lagging a bit with that group.

Another poll yesterday has Kerry leading with Hispanics by only 10. This is a sizable loss for the Dems since '00. So all the news is not rosy, but Mr Bush seems to be doing OK for now.

[Cathay]

I don't know why they couldn't use the data just after debate, there're nearly 800 likly, it's quite enough

[federal]

And all you have to do is accept that reuters/zogby have even a screed of credibility!


BWWAAAHAAAAAAA!

[Bringbackthedraft]

Give Kerry a 1 point gap so when the dead vote he may pull it off?

[Thebaddog]

Zogby admitted this last summer that he looks at his data and adjusts it as he sees fit. Towards the end of the campaign, he adjusts his data to conform to the winning trend to maintain his credibility.

W up six is about right. And that Ipsos poll is French.

[fml]

The slight advantage for Kerry was well within the poll's margin of error

Theres a nice spinny stretch for you.

[patriciamary]

What is wrong with Americans!Do they need the terrorists to stick a bomb up their ass before they wise up.Well if Kerry's elected it's a good chance.

[patriciamary]

I thought a new swift boat ad was coming out,they better hurry there's not much time left!

[edwin hubble]

"I'm not sure but is Z-by a.... arab hack
OR a muslim hack
OR a muslim arab hack??"

Zogby is a democrat, Christian of lebanese descent.
(like Helen Thomas).

[edwin hubble]

The daily tracking polls:

Rasmussen = + 4 Bush
AP/Washington Post = + 4 Bush

[evad]

Zogby is a democrat, Christian of lebanese descent. (like Helen Thomas).

arghhh...my eyes, my eyes (visualizing the H T image)

Anyway, I knew he was some kind of hack.

Bye the bye, just for grins, is there any such thing as a Christian Democrat??