Posted on 10/04/2004 4:36:10 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
Alabama | 96.0 | 9 | 0 |
Alaska | 98.0 | 3 | 0 |
Arizona | 86.0 | 10 | 0 |
Arkansas | 87.1 | 6 | 0 |
California | 8.3 | 0 | 55 |
Colorado | 76.0 | 9 | 0 |
Connecticut | 7.0 | 0 | 7 |
Delaware | 13.0 | 0 | 3 |
District of Columbia | 1.0 | 0 | 3 |
Florida | 63.0 | 27 | 0 |
Georgia | 97.0 | 15 | 0 |
Hawaii | 8.0 | 0 | 4 |
Idaho | 97.0 | 4 | 0 |
Illinois | 7.5 | 0 | 21 |
Indiana | 96.0 | 11 | 0 |
Iowa | 58.0 | 7 | 0 |
Kansas | 96.0 | 6 | 0 |
Kentucky | 91.5 | 8 | 0 |
Louisiana | 96.0 | 9 | 0 |
Maine | 26.5 | 0 | 4 |
Maryland | 18.0 | 0 | 10 |
Massachusetts | 2.0 | 0 | 12 |
Michigan | 25.0 | 0 | 17 |
Minnesota | 36.5 | 0 | 10 |
Mississippi | 96.0 | 6 | 0 |
Missouri | 84.0 | 11 | 0 |
Montana | 94.5 | 3 | 0 |
Nebraska | 95.0 | 5 | 0 |
Nevada | 74.5 | 5 | 0 |
New Hampshire | 56.0 | 4 | 0 |
New Jersey | 19.9 | 0 | 15 |
New Mexico | 37.0 | 0 | 5 |
New York | 7.5 | 0 | 31 |
North Carolina | 91.0 | 15 | 0 |
North Dakota | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
Ohio | 69.0 | 20 | 0 |
Oklahoma | 97.0 | 7 | 0 |
Oregon | 27.5 | 0 | 7 |
Pennsylvania | 36.0 | 0 | 21 |
Rhode Island | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
South Carolina | 95.0 | 8 | 0 |
South Dakota | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
Tennessee | 89.0 | 11 | 0 |
Texas | 98.0 | 34 | 0 |
Utah | 97.0 | 5 | 0 |
Vermont | 8.0 | 0 | 3 |
Virginia | 87.5 | 13 | 0 |
Washington | 19.0 | 0 | 11 |
West Virginia | 80.0 | 5 | 0 |
Wisconsin | 61.0 | 10 | 0 |
Wyoming | 97.0 | 3 | 0 |
Totals | 295 | 243 |
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 295 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 243 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 290.03 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/27/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/20/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/13/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/6/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/30/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
Those are interesting numbers and I hope you are right and that the trend continues.
Lots of hard work on your part!
Thank you for sharing that!
You're welcome.
First question: are the non-winner-take-all states weighted as such, or are they considered here in a winner-take-all way?
Second: is there any analysis of the SENATE? That is almost as important as the Presidential election.
As for the Colorado initiative, I don't believe it will pass, and I believe it will be struck down by the courts if it does.
I would like to see NM, MN and PA in the Bush column - 36 more EV.
There are futures contracts for the Senate races on TradeSports.com. The current price for Republicans maintaining control of the US Senate in the 2004 Election is 79.5.
If these debate performances keep up you can go ahead and swing NH to Kerry. BTW, I think Bush will carry Maine CD2.
If your probability weighted scores differed from this figure by much, then an arbitrage play would exist allowing a smart trader to lock in a small profit, thus moving the two figures back into agreement (within transaction costs).
So, it is only necessary to track this market.
If your probability weighted scores differed from this figure by much, then an arbitrage play would exist allowing a smart trader to lock in a small profit, thus moving the two figures back into agreement (within transaction costs).
So, it is only necessary to track this market.
Here is something interesting:
If one considers a state to be "in play" if the current likehood of Bush winning is between 45% and 55%, then the currrent number of states "in play" is Zero.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.