2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/4/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, October 4, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 295 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 243 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 290.03 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/27/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/20/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/13/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/6/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/30/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[Momaw Nadon]

[Momaw Nadon]

[Momaw Nadon]

If you want on (or off) of the weekly TradeSports.com Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.

[tiamat]

Those are interesting numbers and I hope you are right and that the trend continues.

Lots of hard work on your part!

Thank you for sharing that!

[Momaw Nadon]

You're welcome.

[syriacus]

Looks like enough people realize that
A vote for John Kerry is a vote for a well-manicured gas bag.

[LibertarianInExile]

First question: are the non-winner-take-all states weighted as such, or are they considered here in a winner-take-all way?

Second: is there any analysis of the SENATE? That is almost as important as the Presidential election.

[SheLion]

Great post. Thanks so much for your work on this!

[Brandon]

The only current non-wta states are Nebraska and Maine. Nebraska is more likely to vote for me as a write in than it is to give even one EV to Kerry. Maine could split its votes, but if it did, it would most likely just cost Kerry one EV. The bottom line is that it's trivial.

As for the Colorado initiative, I don't believe it will pass, and I believe it will be struck down by the courts if it does.

[Reader of news]

I would like to see NM, MN and PA in the Bush column - 36 more EV.

[Momaw Nadon]

The non-winner-take-all states such as Maine and Nebraska are considered here in a winner-take-all way because TradeSports.com does not have separate futures contracts for Congressional Districts in these states.

There are futures contracts for the Senate races on TradeSports.com. The current price for Republicans maintaining control of the US Senate in the 2004 Election is 79.5.

[Meldrim]

If these debate performances keep up you can go ahead and swing NH to Kerry. BTW, I think Bush will carry Maine CD2.

[tjwmason]

This weeks there's an addition to the Roll of Honour (last week's http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1228090/posts#9). Alaska is equal to Texas in being the most likely state to go for the President (98% chance), which places it as sixth equal along with South Carolina and Wyoming (most likely on one occasion).

Fourth - Mississippi and North Dakota (twice)
Third - Oklahoma (three times)
Second - Alabama (four times)

First - Texas with a magnificent 11 times.

Shock of shocks, the District of Columbia maintains its unbroken record of dishonour in being least likely to vote for the President in every week I have monitored, and has never risen above 1% change of voting Bush.

[drangundsturm]

There is also a direct market whose price is simply the number of electoral votes the market believes bush will win. As of right now, the last trade was 295. The current bid/ask spread is 282 to 300. See the market BUSH.ELECTORALVOTES under the Politics/US Presidential Elec category.

If your probability weighted scores differed from this figure by much, then an arbitrage play would exist allowing a smart trader to lock in a small profit, thus moving the two figures back into agreement (within transaction costs).

So, it is only necessary to track this market.

[drangundsturm]

There is also a direct market whose price is simply the number of electoral votes the market believes bush will win. As of right now, the last trade was 295. The current bid/ask spread is 282 to 300. See the market BUSH.ELECTORALVOTES under the Politics/US Presidential Elec category.

If your probability weighted scores differed from this figure by much, then an arbitrage play would exist allowing a smart trader to lock in a small profit, thus moving the two figures back into agreement (within transaction costs).

So, it is only necessary to track this market.

[San Jacinto]

Here is something interesting:

If one considers a state to be "in play" if the current likehood of Bush winning is between 45% and 55%, then the currrent number of states "in play" is Zero.

[TheGeezer]

I didn't think this worth a new thread, so I put it here. It may also be old news by now! Anyway: captainquartersblog.com: Kerry Abandons Virginia. Scroll down a bit to the headline. Interesting and encouraging stuff.

[treeclimber]