Posted on 10/04/2004 4:36:10 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
I'm a PA resident, and have been doing all I can to help Dubya. I've lost count of the hours I've spent in the phone bank, delivering signs and going door-to-door.
I have a feeling he's not going to win this state, though. If the polls show him even or slightly ahead, there's no way, because Philly is so corrupt and is a harbor for such flagrant voter fraud. I think he'd need to be up by at least 7 points to win the state.
He may get the most legal votes, but the down-to-earth supporters in the burbs won't vote more than once, because most have principles or a sense of right and wrong. The same isn't true for the libs in the city.
| Date | Prob. Bush Win | Mean EVs | Std. Dev. |
| 01/21 | 96.8% | 341.5 | 41.1 |
| 01/26 | 95.5% | 334.8 | 40.6 |
| 02/02 | 92.2% | 323.8 | 39.7 |
| 02/09 | 83.0% | 307.8 | 40.3 |
| 02/16 | 78.4% | 300.4 | 39.4 |
| 02/23 | 76.2% | 298.2 | 39.6 |
| 03/01 | 74.5% | 295.9 | 39.3 |
| 03/08 | 68.0% | 289.2 | 39.8 |
| 03/15 | 68.0% | 288.8 | 39.0 |
| 03/22 | 68.5% | 289.3 | 38.8 |
| 03/29 | 69.4% | 290.1 | 38.8 |
| 04/05 | 71.2% | 292.3 | 39.1 |
| 04/12 | 70.4% | 290.6 | 38.1 |
| 04/19 | 68.6% | 288.1 | 36.7 |
| 04/26 | 64.9% | 284.5 | 36.3 |
| 05/03 | 66.3% | 285.7 | 36.3 |
| 05/10 | 65.6% | 285.3 | 36.8 |
| 05/17 | 65.2% | 284.8 | 36.6 |
| 05/24 | 60.0% | 280.3 | 36.9 |
| 05/31 | 61.1% | 281.2 | 36.8 |
| 06/07 | 60.5% | 280.6 | 36.5 |
| 06/14 | 65.0% | 285.0 | 36.6 |
| 06/21 | 63.9% | 284.0 | 36.8 |
| 06/28 | 58.4% | 278.8 | 36.7 |
| 07/05 | 58.7% | 279.1 | 36.7 |
| 07/12 | 53.1% | 274.2 | 36.5 |
| 07/19 | 48.2% | 269.8 | 35.7 |
| 07/26 | 43.4% | 265.6 | 35.0 |
| 08/02 | 42.1% | 264.3 | 34.7 |
| 08/09 | 42.9% | 265.2 | 34.5 |
| 08/16 | 42.6% | 264.9 | 34.2 |
| 08/23 | 41.8% | 264.3 | 34.5 |
| 08/30 | 56.1% | 276.4 | 35.0 |
| 09/06 | 65.0% | 284.1 | 35.0 |
| 09/13 | 73.7% | 291.5 | 34.2 |
| 09/20 | 80.1% | 297.3 | 33.4 |
| 09/27 | 81.0% | 298.9 | 33.9 |
| 10/04 | 69.1% | 286.3 | 32.5 |
I particularly like the fact that the North Carolina probability is 91% for Bush-Cheney. Combine that with the fact that Richard Burr has now pulled even with Erskine Bowles in the Senate race and it is apparent that Mr. Edwards doesn't have much of a following in his own state.
Thanks for your continued efforts on this!
I went there yesterday and saw the bookies are indeed betting on Bush. That is a very good pulse to take. Money wins out...Hey, we're a capitalist society.
Gotta love New Hampshire. When in New England - stay there.
We all needed this positive news today! Thanks
PING !!!
Wasn't Nebraska the only state on the 2000 Red/Blue map that didn't show even a single county for Al Gore?
Thanks jdege!
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