Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Michigan now a dead heat in new poll
PR Newswire ^

Posted on 09/28/2004 9:14:00 AM PDT by Nascardude

LANSING, Mich., Sept. 28 /PRNewswire/ -- An already tight race for Michigan's 17 electoral votes between President George W. Bush and U.S. Senator John Kerry, the Democratic nominee, just got tighter. Kerry leads Bush by only two percentage points, his smallest edge in three months, and it appears the number of undecided voters may be expanding slightly. Kerry is ahead of Bush, 45%-43%, with only 1% for Ralph Nader. About 11% of the state's voters claim to be undecided, refused to answer whom they will vote for, or say they don't know (U/RtA/DK). Those are the conclusions of a statewide survey commissioned by Inside Michigan Politics and conducted by Lansing-based Marketing Resource Group, Inc., between Sept. 20 and 24. The poll sampled 600 registered voters stratified by city and/or township, based on past voting history. 36% of the respondents are behavioral Democrats; 30% behavioral Republicans; 27% are ticket-splitters; and about 7% refused to characterize their voting habits or had never voted before. Statistical margin of error is + or - 4.1%. MRG is the state's oldest and most reliable polling organization on Michigan issues and political races. Inside Michigan Politics, founded in 1987, is the largest-circulation bi-weekly, state-based political newsletter in North America. The race between Kerry and Bush in Michigan has closed within the past 10 days, headed into the candidates' first debate in Coral Gables, FL, this Thursday evening. Six weeks ago, Kerry boasted his biggest Michigan lead, 49%-42%, in the wake of the Democratic National Convention. Now, however, IMP/MRG and another survey taken by Fox News on Sept. 21-22 shows the race has tightened to a virtual draw. The survey also found that Michigan voters support both proposals that will be on the Nov. 2 general election ballot: 04-1, which would require that any new form of gambling in Michigan must be subject to approval by voters locally as well as statewide; and 04-2, which would effectively ban so-called "gay marriage" in the state. Voters favor Prop 04-1, 63%-27%, with about 10% U/RtA/DK; voters support Prop 04-2, 61%-33% (6% U/RtA/DK), which is an even greater margin than IMP/MRG found when essentially the same question was asked six months ago.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Michigan
KEYWORDS: 2004; battleground; bluestate; deadheat; imp; michiganpoll; napalminthemorning; poll
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 41-6061-8081-100101-110 next last
To: Nascardude

I aaw the very tail end of H&C lat night. A guy who wrote a book about Kerry said awhile back if Kerry is 5-6 points down in October he will win because he is a great "come from behind" finisher.

Then Hannity held up Kerry's "New Soldier" book, lol!


81 posted on 09/28/2004 12:19:50 PM PDT by valleygal
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: grellis

I believe you are right - as I said the unions are not playing as big a role as they use to when I was growing up.


82 posted on 09/28/2004 12:24:45 PM PDT by finallyatexan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 66 | View Replies]

To: Nascardude

I so want GWB to take this state as he has really been fighting for it. Am starting to see an increase in pro-Bush ads on tv....that ought to help.


83 posted on 09/28/2004 2:13:08 PM PDT by ride the whirlwind (And I have faith in the transforming power of freedom. - President Bush to the criminals in the UN)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Nascardude
Inside Michigan Politics and conducted by Lansing-based Marketing Resource Group, Inc

I'm not that familiar with Marketing Resource group, but Inside Michigan Politics is Bill Ballenger who is a straight shooter.

And if it's 36-30 weighted dem, that's REALLY bad news.

84 posted on 09/28/2004 2:42:52 PM PDT by Dan from Michigan (A gun owner voting for John Kerry is like a chicken voting for Col. Saunders. (bye bye .30-30))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: johnfkerrysucks
My Detroit surban neighborhood was filled with Gore signs in 2000, this

Where at if I may ask? Downriver, West Wayne, Macomb or Oakland?

85 posted on 09/28/2004 2:44:40 PM PDT by Dan from Michigan (A gun owner voting for John Kerry is like a chicken voting for Col. Saunders. (bye bye .30-30))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: kabar
Gore won Wayne County (Detroit and its environs) by 227,000 votes.

Actually, it was worse. Gore won Wayne by 307,393 and Detroit alone by 266423.

86 posted on 09/28/2004 2:48:50 PM PDT by Dan from Michigan (A gun owner voting for John Kerry is like a chicken voting for Col. Saunders. (bye bye .30-30))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: Dan from Michigan

I stand corrected. You are right. I shouldn't do the math in my head.


87 posted on 09/28/2004 2:51:51 PM PDT by kabar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 86 | View Replies]

To: Dan from Michigan

"Where at if I may ask? Downriver, West Wayne, Macomb or Oakland?"

Livonia/Wayne County


88 posted on 09/28/2004 2:52:42 PM PDT by PilloryHillary (John Kerry LIED http://www.johnfkerrysucks.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 85 | View Replies]

To: Mikey_1962
Yes but what is the poll in Macomb County???
A couple of months back, an EPIC(dem lean) poll had Bush with 60% in Macomb and Kerry with 60% in Oakland.

I think both are inflated, but if Bush can break 53% in Macomb(moving to the right) and go even up in Oakland(treading much more liberal dem), he's got it if he can hold Kerry to a somewhat narrow win downriver.

While getting a big West MI, NW MI, Lapeer, Livingston, and the exurban parts of Oakland(Milford, Lyon, Orion, Oxford) and Macomb(Romeo, Shelby) out to the polls.

89 posted on 09/28/2004 2:54:58 PM PDT by Dan from Michigan (A gun owner voting for John Kerry is like a chicken voting for Col. Saunders. (bye bye .30-30))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: Clump
Have the demographics changed in Michigan since 2000?

A little.

Good - Detroit, Flint, Downriver, Westland, Warren, Lansing, Saginaw, Bay City, Marquette, and I think Muskegon are SHRINKING.
Bad - Southfield and Ann Arbor Growing. Oakland treading more left.
Good - Livingston(bad since I'm country, good politicaly), West MI, Traverse County, Lapeer, Macomb(going more right), and North Michigan growing rapidly.

90 posted on 09/28/2004 2:58:06 PM PDT by Dan from Michigan (A gun owner voting for John Kerry is like a chicken voting for Col. Saunders. (bye bye .30-30))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: finallyatexan

I think Texas(Dallas area especially) and Florida (Tampa, Manatee, Lakeland) is becoming Michigan South.....


91 posted on 09/28/2004 3:01:09 PM PDT by Dan from Michigan (A gun owner voting for John Kerry is like a chicken voting for Col. Saunders. (bye bye .30-30))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 44 | View Replies]

To: johnfkerrysucks
We are in the People's Republic of Livonia

Livonia a People's Republic? Bush and Posthumus both won it.

92 posted on 09/28/2004 3:02:04 PM PDT by Dan from Michigan (A gun owner voting for John Kerry is like a chicken voting for Col. Saunders. (bye bye .30-30))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 50 | View Replies]

To: WildTurkey

Actually, "on our turf" is exactly where the Democrats prefer to play against the terrorists. When last that occurred, we should not forget, three thousand people perished on American soil. In order to expedite the bringing of the war to our turf--whose populous would be disarmed, both civilians and military--Kerry would beseech the Congress to declare wars against various enemies of the United States. France would join us in eventual surrender. Aha, I think I've finally discerned Kerry's no-flip-flop foreign-policy plan. Oh, yeah, and I disagree with it too.


93 posted on 09/28/2004 3:05:28 PM PDT by dufekin (President Kerry would have our enemies partying like it's 1969, when Kerry first committed treason.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: Dan from Michigan
Why did you put Flint in the Good column? This is a city that voted for a Democrat Mayor 2 times that was so bad and corrupt he put the city into a deficit so bad the State had to take over. UofM Flint profs all Dems - Trial lawyers in upscale old city all Dems - overwhelming black population all Dems - 85% of city population union. As far as the burbs - Grand Blanc solid Republican - Burton Dem - Davison Dem - Fenton Rep. - Swartz Creek Dem Flushing 1/2 and 1/2 Mt. Morris Dem Clio Dem
94 posted on 09/28/2004 3:51:22 PM PDT by finallyatexan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 90 | View Replies]

To: finallyatexan

Flint's shrinking in population. THAT's good.


95 posted on 09/28/2004 4:21:20 PM PDT by Dan from Michigan (A gun owner voting for John Kerry is like a chicken voting for Col. Saunders. (bye bye .30-30))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 94 | View Replies]

To: Dan from Michigan

Your name rings familiar - do you do alot with Republicans in Flint - Detroit area


96 posted on 09/28/2004 4:27:30 PM PDT by finallyatexan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 95 | View Replies]

To: Dan from Michigan
Flint's shrinking in population. THAT's good.

Is Mark Farner still there?

97 posted on 09/28/2004 4:28:36 PM PDT by freedumb2003 (Please quote me. I am an Unimpeachable Source.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 95 | View Replies]

To: Nascardude

I don't know...would be nice if true but you have to admit most polls show Bush behind in MI.


98 posted on 09/28/2004 4:30:41 PM PDT by MichelleWSC
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: freedumb2003
Is Mark Farner still there?

I'm not sure.

99 posted on 09/28/2004 5:02:53 PM PDT by Dan from Michigan (A gun owner voting for John Kerry is like a chicken voting for Col. Saunders. (bye bye .30-30))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 97 | View Replies]

To: finallyatexan

I'm active mostly in Livingston County and the Lansing area.


100 posted on 09/28/2004 5:03:32 PM PDT by Dan from Michigan (A gun owner voting for John Kerry is like a chicken voting for Col. Saunders. (bye bye .30-30))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 96 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 41-6061-8081-100101-110 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson