Posted on 09/28/2004 9:14:00 AM PDT by Nascardude
LANSING, Mich., Sept. 28 /PRNewswire/ -- An already tight race for Michigan's 17 electoral votes between President George W. Bush and U.S. Senator John Kerry, the Democratic nominee, just got tighter. Kerry leads Bush by only two percentage points, his smallest edge in three months, and it appears the number of undecided voters may be expanding slightly. Kerry is ahead of Bush, 45%-43%, with only 1% for Ralph Nader. About 11% of the state's voters claim to be undecided, refused to answer whom they will vote for, or say they don't know (U/RtA/DK). Those are the conclusions of a statewide survey commissioned by Inside Michigan Politics and conducted by Lansing-based Marketing Resource Group, Inc., between Sept. 20 and 24. The poll sampled 600 registered voters stratified by city and/or township, based on past voting history. 36% of the respondents are behavioral Democrats; 30% behavioral Republicans; 27% are ticket-splitters; and about 7% refused to characterize their voting habits or had never voted before. Statistical margin of error is + or - 4.1%. MRG is the state's oldest and most reliable polling organization on Michigan issues and political races. Inside Michigan Politics, founded in 1987, is the largest-circulation bi-weekly, state-based political newsletter in North America. The race between Kerry and Bush in Michigan has closed within the past 10 days, headed into the candidates' first debate in Coral Gables, FL, this Thursday evening. Six weeks ago, Kerry boasted his biggest Michigan lead, 49%-42%, in the wake of the Democratic National Convention. Now, however, IMP/MRG and another survey taken by Fox News on Sept. 21-22 shows the race has tightened to a virtual draw. The survey also found that Michigan voters support both proposals that will be on the Nov. 2 general election ballot: 04-1, which would require that any new form of gambling in Michigan must be subject to approval by voters locally as well as statewide; and 04-2, which would effectively ban so-called "gay marriage" in the state. Voters favor Prop 04-1, 63%-27%, with about 10% U/RtA/DK; voters support Prop 04-2, 61%-33% (6% U/RtA/DK), which is an even greater margin than IMP/MRG found when essentially the same question was asked six months ago.
I aaw the very tail end of H&C lat night. A guy who wrote a book about Kerry said awhile back if Kerry is 5-6 points down in October he will win because he is a great "come from behind" finisher.
Then Hannity held up Kerry's "New Soldier" book, lol!
I believe you are right - as I said the unions are not playing as big a role as they use to when I was growing up.
I so want GWB to take this state as he has really been fighting for it. Am starting to see an increase in pro-Bush ads on tv....that ought to help.
I'm not that familiar with Marketing Resource group, but Inside Michigan Politics is Bill Ballenger who is a straight shooter.
And if it's 36-30 weighted dem, that's REALLY bad news.
Where at if I may ask? Downriver, West Wayne, Macomb or Oakland?
Actually, it was worse. Gore won Wayne by 307,393 and Detroit alone by 266423.
I stand corrected. You are right. I shouldn't do the math in my head.
"Where at if I may ask? Downriver, West Wayne, Macomb or Oakland?"
Livonia/Wayne County
I think both are inflated, but if Bush can break 53% in Macomb(moving to the right) and go even up in Oakland(treading much more liberal dem), he's got it if he can hold Kerry to a somewhat narrow win downriver.
While getting a big West MI, NW MI, Lapeer, Livingston, and the exurban parts of Oakland(Milford, Lyon, Orion, Oxford) and Macomb(Romeo, Shelby) out to the polls.
A little.
Good - Detroit, Flint, Downriver, Westland, Warren, Lansing, Saginaw, Bay City, Marquette, and I think Muskegon are SHRINKING.
Bad - Southfield and Ann Arbor Growing. Oakland treading more left.
Good - Livingston(bad since I'm country, good politicaly), West MI, Traverse County, Lapeer, Macomb(going more right), and North Michigan growing rapidly.
I think Texas(Dallas area especially) and Florida (Tampa, Manatee, Lakeland) is becoming Michigan South.....
Livonia a People's Republic? Bush and Posthumus both won it.
Actually, "on our turf" is exactly where the Democrats prefer to play against the terrorists. When last that occurred, we should not forget, three thousand people perished on American soil. In order to expedite the bringing of the war to our turf--whose populous would be disarmed, both civilians and military--Kerry would beseech the Congress to declare wars against various enemies of the United States. France would join us in eventual surrender. Aha, I think I've finally discerned Kerry's no-flip-flop foreign-policy plan. Oh, yeah, and I disagree with it too.
Flint's shrinking in population. THAT's good.
Your name rings familiar - do you do alot with Republicans in Flint - Detroit area
Is Mark Farner still there?
I don't know...would be nice if true but you have to admit most polls show Bush behind in MI.
I'm not sure.
I'm active mostly in Livingston County and the Lansing area.
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