Posted on 09/28/2004 9:14:00 AM PDT by Nascardude
LANSING, Mich., Sept. 28 /PRNewswire/ -- An already tight race for Michigan's 17 electoral votes between President George W. Bush and U.S. Senator John Kerry, the Democratic nominee, just got tighter. Kerry leads Bush by only two percentage points, his smallest edge in three months, and it appears the number of undecided voters may be expanding slightly. Kerry is ahead of Bush, 45%-43%, with only 1% for Ralph Nader. About 11% of the state's voters claim to be undecided, refused to answer whom they will vote for, or say they don't know (U/RtA/DK). Those are the conclusions of a statewide survey commissioned by Inside Michigan Politics and conducted by Lansing-based Marketing Resource Group, Inc., between Sept. 20 and 24. The poll sampled 600 registered voters stratified by city and/or township, based on past voting history. 36% of the respondents are behavioral Democrats; 30% behavioral Republicans; 27% are ticket-splitters; and about 7% refused to characterize their voting habits or had never voted before. Statistical margin of error is + or - 4.1%. MRG is the state's oldest and most reliable polling organization on Michigan issues and political races. Inside Michigan Politics, founded in 1987, is the largest-circulation bi-weekly, state-based political newsletter in North America. The race between Kerry and Bush in Michigan has closed within the past 10 days, headed into the candidates' first debate in Coral Gables, FL, this Thursday evening. Six weeks ago, Kerry boasted his biggest Michigan lead, 49%-42%, in the wake of the Democratic National Convention. Now, however, IMP/MRG and another survey taken by Fox News on Sept. 21-22 shows the race has tightened to a virtual draw. The survey also found that Michigan voters support both proposals that will be on the Nov. 2 general election ballot: 04-1, which would require that any new form of gambling in Michigan must be subject to approval by voters locally as well as statewide; and 04-2, which would effectively ban so-called "gay marriage" in the state. Voters favor Prop 04-1, 63%-27%, with about 10% U/RtA/DK; voters support Prop 04-2, 61%-33% (6% U/RtA/DK), which is an even greater margin than IMP/MRG found when essentially the same question was asked six months ago.
I also happen to think the Detroit Dem voters are very unenthused by this candidate and the turn-out in fraud rich areas will be lower than in the past.
Only one of my neighbors had a sign for JFnK, then I got my sign up and then I noticed 3 more GWB signs. Of course, it is most likely the distribution process, but I like to think that I inspired them! I'm in the Pelham, Outer, Carlysle area.......
Michigan has a traditional marriage preservation ballot proposal as well, so that should boost the turnout of conservative leaning voters, hopefully in a similar fashion as happened in Missouri during this past summer.
Union fraud in Michigan has gone on for years and years but no one ever wants to look into it. One fortunate thing is that the unions don't have the grip they use to have in Detroit - they are the ones that basically ruined the auto industry in the state - Flint is a ghost town and I really don't think they will ever recover - Detroit seems to be bringing in more high tech jobs (good for Republicans) but it will take a long time. Michigan is a really beautiful state and I love it dearly but politics there are down and dirty and if a union boss tells you to vote for a Democrat you vote for a Democrat.
But, but, but...isn't Michael Moore going to bring Michigan for Kerry?
Do you have any proof at all of this?
"What suburb do you live in? Mine had a few JFnK signs up, but lately I've noteced a lot of GWB signs here in the home of Henry Ford!"
Surprising to hear about the pro Bush signs in the home of Henry Ford! We are in the People's Republic of Livonia, and it's surprising how many Bush signs are in our neighborhood this time around.
"Bush lost Michigan to Gore by 117,000 votes (51.2% to 46.1%). Gore won Wayne County (Detroit and its environs) by 227,000 votes. If the GOP can crack down on voter fraud in Detroit, he would win easily."
I agree totally, but this time around the Democrats have a dud for a candidate.....the blacks don't adore him like they did Clinton & Gore. I predict a lower turnout in Detroit combined with more black people voting Bush this year... and that will help.
I'm somewhat dubious of Prop. 1 and wouldn't mind any Freeper insight. Personally I am not sure a Const. Ammendment is necessary with regards to gambling. In addition, the current process allows for local input through city councils. I'm not sure what is accomplished by approving prop 1 and at this time I am leaning heavily towards popping the "no" chad!
Nice to meet ya, neighbor! Now, bring me some cookies!
What do you think of prop 1?
I'm actually pleasantly surprised with this poll. Michigan is a sleeper state, I believe. The president lost this state by just 5 points or so in 2000. I think the Prez can still take this one, especially considering that both Nader and the gay marriage ban are going to be on the Michigan ballot. It could make the difference. Let's hope and pray to God it does.
If the Detroit vote stays home, Kerry's toast.
And with the Marriage Protection Amendment on the ballot, turnout will be skewed in favor of candidates who support defending one-man, one-woman marriage. In the Missouri primary, for example, 40,000 voters turned out to vote on the marriage amendment alone...then went home without bothering to vote in contested gubernatorial primaries or Congressional races or anything else. Right now in Michigan, the most aggressive voter registration campaign I've ever witnessed is going on in churches, driven by the marriage issue.
"What do you think of prop 1?"
I will probably vote NO. I don't like changing the consitution just to help the casinos make more money. It seems like it could be a slippery slope....I don't see how letting this pass will help anyone but the tribal casino owners. As it stands, most tribal casinos would be exempt so they don't have to give money to the schools etc., so gambling will be popping up all over (from the grocery stores to the restaurants) and they'll make more money. The communities and schools are the ones who will suffer. I have nothing against someone gambling their own money, but it has to benefit the community in some way and I don't see how prop 1 will do that.
If Bush wins states like Michigan and New Jersey, this election will be a major landslide.
Mich poll ping.
Down to the wire....
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