If the Detroit vote stays home, Kerry's toast.
And with the Marriage Protection Amendment on the ballot, turnout will be skewed in favor of candidates who support defending one-man, one-woman marriage. In the Missouri primary, for example, 40,000 voters turned out to vote on the marriage amendment alone...then went home without bothering to vote in contested gubernatorial primaries or Congressional races or anything else. Right now in Michigan, the most aggressive voter registration campaign I've ever witnessed is going on in churches, driven by the marriage issue.