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Michigan now a dead heat in new poll
PR Newswire ^

Posted on 09/28/2004 9:14:00 AM PDT by Nascardude

LANSING, Mich., Sept. 28 /PRNewswire/ -- An already tight race for Michigan's 17 electoral votes between President George W. Bush and U.S. Senator John Kerry, the Democratic nominee, just got tighter. Kerry leads Bush by only two percentage points, his smallest edge in three months, and it appears the number of undecided voters may be expanding slightly. Kerry is ahead of Bush, 45%-43%, with only 1% for Ralph Nader. About 11% of the state's voters claim to be undecided, refused to answer whom they will vote for, or say they don't know (U/RtA/DK). Those are the conclusions of a statewide survey commissioned by Inside Michigan Politics and conducted by Lansing-based Marketing Resource Group, Inc., between Sept. 20 and 24. The poll sampled 600 registered voters stratified by city and/or township, based on past voting history. 36% of the respondents are behavioral Democrats; 30% behavioral Republicans; 27% are ticket-splitters; and about 7% refused to characterize their voting habits or had never voted before. Statistical margin of error is + or - 4.1%. MRG is the state's oldest and most reliable polling organization on Michigan issues and political races. Inside Michigan Politics, founded in 1987, is the largest-circulation bi-weekly, state-based political newsletter in North America. The race between Kerry and Bush in Michigan has closed within the past 10 days, headed into the candidates' first debate in Coral Gables, FL, this Thursday evening. Six weeks ago, Kerry boasted his biggest Michigan lead, 49%-42%, in the wake of the Democratic National Convention. Now, however, IMP/MRG and another survey taken by Fox News on Sept. 21-22 shows the race has tightened to a virtual draw. The survey also found that Michigan voters support both proposals that will be on the Nov. 2 general election ballot: 04-1, which would require that any new form of gambling in Michigan must be subject to approval by voters locally as well as statewide; and 04-2, which would effectively ban so-called "gay marriage" in the state. Voters favor Prop 04-1, 63%-27%, with about 10% U/RtA/DK; voters support Prop 04-2, 61%-33% (6% U/RtA/DK), which is an even greater margin than IMP/MRG found when essentially the same question was asked six months ago.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Michigan
KEYWORDS: 2004; battleground; bluestate; deadheat; imp; michiganpoll; napalminthemorning; poll
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The bad news gets worse for Kerry. Michigan was the one state where he held his ground against Bush. But the last 2 polls there have shown it to be a 2 point lead. And within the margin of error. The party breakdown of this poll is 36 Dem 30 GOP.
1 posted on 09/28/2004 9:14:00 AM PDT by Nascardude
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To: Nascardude

Kerry is going to be out of ca$h soon...


2 posted on 09/28/2004 9:15:17 AM PDT by frog_jerk_2004
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To: Nascardude

If Bush can motivate the "bible belt" in western and northern Michigan, Kerry is toast. I've always thought that Michigan was in play for Bush. My Detroit surban neighborhood was filled with Gore signs in 2000, this time it's filled with Bush signs. Bush has a real shot at winning Michigan.


3 posted on 09/28/2004 9:16:50 AM PDT by PilloryHillary (John Kerry LIED http://www.johnfkerrysucks.com)
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To: Nascardude

plain and simple......GW will win michigan


4 posted on 09/28/2004 9:17:20 AM PDT by kingattax
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To: johnfkerrysucks

"surban" = suburban


5 posted on 09/28/2004 9:17:26 AM PDT by PilloryHillary (John Kerry LIED http://www.johnfkerrysucks.com)
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To: Nascardude

Well this is good news, but with Detroit there and all the "extra" votes they can come up with, this is probably one that Kerry will keep. But we can always hope. And work for it too.
Vote Fraud...The most frightening aspect of this campaign without a doubt.


6 posted on 09/28/2004 9:18:07 AM PDT by BonnieJ
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To: Nascardude

Michigan polls probably tend to skew more for the Dems...thus the movement from Kerry to either undecided or for Bush is probably greater than indicated..the latest from Wisconsin showed a doubel digit lead for Bush,a nd near the same in Ohio..there's no way that these can be correct and MI is still in the kerry column.


7 posted on 09/28/2004 9:18:21 AM PDT by ken5050 (Bill Clinton has just signed to be the national spokesman for Hummer..)
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To: Darth Reagan; kesg

poll ping


8 posted on 09/28/2004 9:20:52 AM PDT by marblehead17 (I love it when a plan comes together.)
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To: Nascardude

Kerry positivly, absolutly has to have Michigan. Make him spend like crazy there has no downside.


9 posted on 09/28/2004 9:21:09 AM PDT by Semper Paratus
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To: Nascardude

I don't see how the Kerry camp can feel good, there is no movement toward their man in any of these polls, no matter what they want to believe.


10 posted on 09/28/2004 9:21:31 AM PDT by KellyAdmirer
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To: kingattax
Hahahaha

Oh how I wish this comes true.

Talk about a slap down for our own Little Jenny Grandstand, and our out of touch Senators- Debbie Stabusall and KKKarl Lenin.
11 posted on 09/28/2004 9:21:59 AM PDT by Area51 (Diapers and Politicians need to be changed-For the same reason)
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To: frog_jerk_2004
Kerry is going to be out of ca$h soon...

Nah, Soros will come to his rescue.......

12 posted on 09/28/2004 9:23:56 AM PDT by AxelPaulsenJr (Excellence In Posting Since 1999)
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To: Nascardude

What traitor John needs to do is come to Michigan and talk about how he has spent years defending and promoting Gun Control.


13 posted on 09/28/2004 9:24:00 AM PDT by Area51 (Diapers and Politicians need to be changed-For the same reason)
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To: Area51

A message to Michigan..."Help Is On the Way" !!!


14 posted on 09/28/2004 9:24:30 AM PDT by kingattax
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To: Nascardude

WOO-HALLELUJA-HOO!!!

I smell toast burning!
15 posted on 09/28/2004 9:26:31 AM PDT by epluribus_2
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To: ken5050

no kidding! They had Granholm up by 14 points and she won by 3.x% (over a pubbie who's name I cannot even remember - shows how hard we try when the polls are inflated)


16 posted on 09/28/2004 9:28:06 AM PDT by epluribus_2
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To: Nascardude; Dan from Michigan; wmichgrad; grellis; ClintonBeGone

It might just be up for grabs!


17 posted on 09/28/2004 9:28:13 AM PDT by CSM ("Don't be economic girlie men!" - Governator, August 31, 2004, RNC)
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To: Nascardude

Famous quotes:

"I'd prefer we play on our turf." (Ted Devine)


18 posted on 09/28/2004 9:29:22 AM PDT by WildTurkey
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To: johnfkerrysucks

What suburb do you live in? Mine had a few JFnK signs up, but lately I've noteced a lot of GWB signs here in the home of Henry Ford!


19 posted on 09/28/2004 9:29:38 AM PDT by CSM ("Don't be economic girlie men!" - Governator, August 31, 2004, RNC)
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To: Area51
But maybe his OrangeTanTM will really help him in this state. Ok...maybe not...but there is always Florida!

Gum

20 posted on 09/28/2004 9:29:42 AM PDT by ChewedGum (aka King of Fools)
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