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Michigan now a dead heat in new poll
PR Newswire ^

Posted on 09/28/2004 9:14:00 AM PDT by Nascardude

LANSING, Mich., Sept. 28 /PRNewswire/ -- An already tight race for Michigan's 17 electoral votes between President George W. Bush and U.S. Senator John Kerry, the Democratic nominee, just got tighter. Kerry leads Bush by only two percentage points, his smallest edge in three months, and it appears the number of undecided voters may be expanding slightly. Kerry is ahead of Bush, 45%-43%, with only 1% for Ralph Nader. About 11% of the state's voters claim to be undecided, refused to answer whom they will vote for, or say they don't know (U/RtA/DK). Those are the conclusions of a statewide survey commissioned by Inside Michigan Politics and conducted by Lansing-based Marketing Resource Group, Inc., between Sept. 20 and 24. The poll sampled 600 registered voters stratified by city and/or township, based on past voting history. 36% of the respondents are behavioral Democrats; 30% behavioral Republicans; 27% are ticket-splitters; and about 7% refused to characterize their voting habits or had never voted before. Statistical margin of error is + or - 4.1%. MRG is the state's oldest and most reliable polling organization on Michigan issues and political races. Inside Michigan Politics, founded in 1987, is the largest-circulation bi-weekly, state-based political newsletter in North America. The race between Kerry and Bush in Michigan has closed within the past 10 days, headed into the candidates' first debate in Coral Gables, FL, this Thursday evening. Six weeks ago, Kerry boasted his biggest Michigan lead, 49%-42%, in the wake of the Democratic National Convention. Now, however, IMP/MRG and another survey taken by Fox News on Sept. 21-22 shows the race has tightened to a virtual draw. The survey also found that Michigan voters support both proposals that will be on the Nov. 2 general election ballot: 04-1, which would require that any new form of gambling in Michigan must be subject to approval by voters locally as well as statewide; and 04-2, which would effectively ban so-called "gay marriage" in the state. Voters favor Prop 04-1, 63%-27%, with about 10% U/RtA/DK; voters support Prop 04-2, 61%-33% (6% U/RtA/DK), which is an even greater margin than IMP/MRG found when essentially the same question was asked six months ago.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Michigan
KEYWORDS: 2004; battleground; bluestate; deadheat; imp; michiganpoll; napalminthemorning; poll
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To: Nascardude

Anyone know if the internals seem right? Kerry is in deep crap.


21 posted on 09/28/2004 9:30:25 AM PDT by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestus globus, inflammare animos)
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To: Area51
It's simpler than that. He has to just go there and talk. Ha ha.
22 posted on 09/28/2004 9:31:19 AM PDT by SolomoninSouthDakota
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To: Nascardude
If it means anything...

I saw a lot of Bush/Cheney stickers at the football stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday...and a couple "M for Bush" tee shirts, too. In the past, the Democrats have had a substantial showing on Hoover Street on the way to the stadium...but this year, they don't have any more presence on the street than the college Republicans.

I'm encouraged, now...I thought my vote would be lost on Detroit and the unions. I'll have to step up the email campaign to my fence-sitting friends!

23 posted on 09/28/2004 9:31:56 AM PDT by Fredgoblu
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To: epluribus_2

If Bush wins in Michigan I will be one surprise ex-Michigander!!! The unions there will do anything they can to get Kerry the state and that includes fraud. From Saginaw North and West it is pretty much Republican but the Levin boys always win because of Detroit.
I will be keeping my fingers crossed - maybe I should request an absentee ballot since Bush really doesn't need my vote here.


24 posted on 09/28/2004 9:33:10 AM PDT by finallyatexan
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To: WildTurkey

Don't you love that quote?

I can't imagine they think they will be able to win all the battles "on their own turf" and then have the time and resources to turn the tables on Bush in FL or OH. Won't happen.

What is that guy smoking?


25 posted on 09/28/2004 9:34:16 AM PDT by SolomoninSouthDakota
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To: johnfkerrysucks

Bush lost Michigan to Gore by 117,000 votes (51.2% to 46.1%). Gore won Wayne County (Detroit and its environs) by 227,000 votes. If the GOP can crack down on voter fraud in Detroit, he would win easily.


26 posted on 09/28/2004 9:34:34 AM PDT by kabar
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To: CSM
More Bush signs than JF'nK signs here in Rochester Hills.

I grew up in Dearborn...glad to hear it's going toward Bush down there! Michigan and Military area...in the old Ford homes district. Great little neighborhood.

27 posted on 09/28/2004 9:34:53 AM PDT by Fredgoblu
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To: Nascardude

Yes but what is the poll in Macomb County???


28 posted on 09/28/2004 9:35:43 AM PDT by Mikey_1962
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To: epluribus_2
over a pubbie who's name I cannot even remember

Posthumus.

29 posted on 09/28/2004 9:36:10 AM PDT by Fredgoblu
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To: epluribus_2

You're looking for Dick Posthumus, Lt. Gov under John Engler.


30 posted on 09/28/2004 9:36:46 AM PDT by leoncaruthers
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To: Nascardude

I think the "Reagan Democrats" originated from Macomb County Michigan. My MI parents, democrats their entire lives, voted for Reagan. After that, my mom switched back to Dems. Dad continued to vote Republican. Much to my horror, Mom even voted for Clintoon twice! aghhhhh! But...the good news is, she recently told me she will pull the lever for Bush this November.


31 posted on 09/28/2004 9:37:40 AM PDT by 1 spark
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To: SolomoninSouthDakota

Posted on kerryblog.blogspot.com. Seems they are disgusted with dear old Ted, also.

Ron.

The Kerry campaign needs to do a few things quickly.

The first is to fire whoever is doing oppo research and running their war room. To be kind the operation sucks. A blind man could have predicted that Rove was going to do something "negative" (as you will note even I did and got pilloried for it) and he will do more. Someone right now needs to have a list of "the next 10 Karl issues" and get a grip on them.

The second is to hire some competent surrogates. I give up how many times are we going to see Ted Devine pistol whipped on one show after another or Stephanie Cutter have her chair ripped out from under her.


32 posted on 09/28/2004 9:40:02 AM PDT by WildTurkey
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To: ken5050

Good point. Have the demographics changed in Michigan since 2000? I remember thinking that Bush had a shot at winning it back then, but nobody has talked about it much this year. I thought it was either out of reach or that it just didn't fit into the strategy of holding Ohio, Florida, and contesting Pennsylvania. Personally I would rather see Bush focus in heavily securing large victories in FL and OH so as to overcome voter fraud. I would hate to see him spread resources too thin and narrowly "lose" some of the must win states. Any thoughts on this?


33 posted on 09/28/2004 9:42:17 AM PDT by Clump
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To: Nascardude

electoral-vote.com has Minnesota in the Bush column today. Okay it's just a moment in time but it's a sweet one! Bush/Cheney are taking the fight to Minnesota and New Jersey so they won't have to fight the Dems in Ohio and Florida.


34 posted on 09/28/2004 9:45:22 AM PDT by Graymatter (Reload Bush/Cheney 2004)
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To: kabar

Bush lost Michigan to Gore by 117,000 votes (51.2% to 46.1%). Gore won Wayne County (Detroit and its environs) by 227,000 votes. If the GOP can crack down on voter fraud in Detroit, he would win easily.



26 posted on 09/28/2004 9:34:34 AM PDT by kabar
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Don't forget that 200,000 of those Gore voters were by dead registered voters.

The Ex-Prosecutor-now Governor Jenny Grandstand hasn't done a thing about it either.


35 posted on 09/28/2004 9:46:08 AM PDT by Area51 (Diapers and Politicians need to be changed-For the same reason)
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To: Nascardude
I just read that President Bush is expected back in Michigan in October for the groundbreaking of a new Veteran's cemetary in Holly. Its not official yet, but the talks have been with Karl Rove so they're serious.

The article didn't say whether the Frenchurian Candidate was invited...

36 posted on 09/28/2004 9:47:16 AM PDT by Kieri (Farscape Returns on Sunday, October 17th at 9PM ET!)
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To: Nascardude

Interesting. If this goes much further, the momentum factor could really kick in. A lot of people really don't like to vote for a loser. And nobody wants to live in the single state that voted against a sitting president. It doesn't help bring in the pork.

I get the feeling that a fair number of my friends intend to vote for kerry because of the "Everybody knows that kerry is better than that awful Bush" syndrome. You can't underestimate the lemming effect among liberals. They don't want to get out of line with their friends and neighbors.


37 posted on 09/28/2004 9:48:01 AM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: Mikey_1962; Nascardude

I live in Macomb county and even though I have been seeing Kerry signs and bumper stickers, I am starting to see a lot of Bush bumper stickers and signs now too.

The NRA and other pro-gun groups have done a good job of exposing Kerry for the anti-gunner he is, and a lot of gun owners I know won't be voting for Kerry for that reason.

Sure, Kerry will get the gay vote the feminist vote, and the teacher's union vote, but that's nothing against the joe six-packs and the soccor moms.

Even though the UAW supports Kerry, talking to other people in the Union, there are enough that consider Kerry to be a poodle (He's French, he's a rich woman's lap dog, and he won't protect you) that I belive that Bush is going to take Michigan.


38 posted on 09/28/2004 9:48:10 AM PDT by WaltStringer
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To: Kieri

The article didn't say whether the Frenchurian Candidate was invited...


36 posted on 09/28/2004 9:47:16 AM PDT by Kieri (Farscape Returns on Sunday, October 17th at 9PM ET!)
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That is because he declined before he accepted.


39 posted on 09/28/2004 9:48:51 AM PDT by Area51 (Diapers and Politicians need to be changed-For the same reason)
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To: finallyatexan
We will win this election with or without Michigan, but we must uncover the fraud after the fact to protect us in future elections. We need to cross check all the numbers from the suspected counties and expose the corruption. We can file Freedom of Information Act requests if we need to. If we get the facts together and make enough noise, the Feds will have no choice but to investigate. Since Bush is probably going to win this thing by a sizable margin, we need to use this as an opportunity to protect our system of government for the future.
40 posted on 09/28/2004 9:49:59 AM PDT by Clump
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