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Minnesota has been in the Bush column for a while. ALL the polls show that EXCEPT the Minneapolis Star Tribune (State Democrat Paper) which shows Kerry up by 9. Problem is the Star Tribune has overstated the Democrat vote here in Minnesota by 5 points in the last 5 elections. If you control for that bias, even the Star Tribune poll changes to show a Bush lead in Minnesota by 2 points. Minnesota is in play yet the Kerry camp is not campaigning here or advertising. Why, because they think the state is in their column and are basing that assumption on a demonstrably flawed poll. The Democrat's problem is they have not kept up with the changing face of Minnesota politics. Since 2000 we have elected a Republican Gov., a solidly Republican Legislative House, HALF our Congressional Delegation is Republican (including the Senator we elected in 2002) our State Senate is only Democrat Controlled by 1 vote and all but one of our state wide offices is held by a Republican. The Republican Gov Tim Pawlenty is enormously popular and the margin by which Rep Senator Norm Colman WON Minnesota in 2002 is LARGER then the margin Bush LOST Minnesota in 2000! Bush campaigned in the last week of 2000 for Colman here in Minnesota so it was his coattails, as much as Colman's personal popularity, that boasted Coleman to a win in 2002.

Minnesota is in play and Kerry can NOT win without Minnesota since it is a 20 point shift in the Electoral Collage (10 point loss in "Sure Kerry" state plus a 10 point gain for Bush) So assuming the race is as close as 2000, and Minnesota goes Bush?