Posted on 09/16/2004 3:28:10 PM PDT by Republic Rocker
All these Polls out today seem to be going in two opposite directions. Some showing Bush pulling ahead in every state yet the Pew People are saying it is all even again? HUH!
Is the new Gallup coming out today?
Gallup probably heard about the Pew poll so they decided not to come out with theirs showing the opposite.
Well, a pessimist might say that the state polls lag the national horserace, but I won't say that.
Listening to those on FR who know more about these things than I do, one needs to look at the internals of a given poll to interpret it. For example, the Pew survey showing the race, nationally, is back to a statistical tie, was it of "adults," "registered voters," or what?...for example.
...in short, I would not put it past some polling organizations to redesign their sampling techniques simply to bring the race back into "horse race" status.
CHILL, people. The pew/Harris polls include simply adults, not even necessarily registered voters (100% of the Harris poll respondents were simply "adults". 25% of the Pew respondents were not even registered voters.)
Kerry Spot points out that the Pew poll showed a massive shift toward Kerry in certain quarters over the one week polling period. For example, Bush went from a 20-point lead among young voters (under age 30) to a 14-point deficit. What could have caused a net shift of 34% in that group? And the poll shows a similar finding among seniors.
The Harris poll was a likely voter poll.
National polls really aren't significant. It is the electoral college that matters. Bush is still looking good there and is even putting New Jersey in play
There has just been way too much momentum in ALL polls over the last two weeks going in GW's direction. Almost stretching his lead everywhere, in every state and demographic.
Then all of a sudden its back to a dead heat? No way. Doesn't work that way.
Thank you for the info. Very glad to see there is at least one good conservative in Hawaii. Now do you have any good Spam recipes you might share? :)
Swings that large usually mean that both polls are wrong and the truth is somewhere in between.
I don't think that's true. The base was adults, but then they narrowed it down to LV's. Their 48-47 Kerry advantage was based on LVs. That's not to say that there aren't problems w/ their methods, but they used LVs. Pew also clearly used RVs and LVs.
The corner reported that Gallup would provide good news for Bush.
I suppose a standard caveat that all polls are suspect is warranted.
Well, then - this is one that be turned quickly. The sponsors and co-sponsors of the bills in the House and Senate to bring back the draft are ALL DEMOCRATS.
Actually, Pew on their website said the poll was a combination of registered voters and "Adults"
I've been hearing that college profs all over have been telling students that Bush will draft them if he wins.
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