Gallup probably heard about the Pew poll so they decided not to come out with theirs showing the opposite.
Well, a pessimist might say that the state polls lag the national horserace, but I won't say that.
Listening to those on FR who know more about these things than I do, one needs to look at the internals of a given poll to interpret it. For example, the Pew survey showing the race, nationally, is back to a statistical tie, was it of "adults," "registered voters," or what?...for example.
...in short, I would not put it past some polling organizations to redesign their sampling techniques simply to bring the race back into "horse race" status.
CHILL, people. The pew/Harris polls include simply adults, not even necessarily registered voters (100% of the Harris poll respondents were simply "adults". 25% of the Pew respondents were not even registered voters.)
Kerry Spot points out that the Pew poll showed a massive shift toward Kerry in certain quarters over the one week polling period. For example, Bush went from a 20-point lead among young voters (under age 30) to a 14-point deficit. What could have caused a net shift of 34% in that group? And the poll shows a similar finding among seniors.
The corner reported that Gallup would provide good news for Bush.
I suppose a standard caveat that all polls are suspect is warranted.
Time will tell.
"I have been told that a Gallup/CNN poll out to be released on Friday has Bush 13 points ahead nationally."
You know I wouldn't doubt that the DEMS are trying to influence young voters in a wisper campaign that the president may institute the draft..It is low and I wouldn't put it past them... I mean all this talk about vietnam and all... It may be wise for GW to address this simply show the military recruitment statistics and use it to his advantage. I mean he can even point to the fact that Kerry does not enjoy the backing of the military and that if Kerry were elected than in fact there may be a draft because the military may get out in droves since they would not respect Kerry as CinC.
I the guess the other shoe to drop is someone stepping forward and saying that the polls are being forged to support Kerry.
John
I don't trust either of these polls. Unless I see a poll of registered voters, its worthless IMO.
And you know what's worse.
Quinnipiac just called my house. The woman asked me a question "who in your household is having the next birthday?"
I answered wrong. Wife. She didn't want to take the poll and she's a lib anyway. #$%#$%#$%
I could have really helped skew the Poll for Bush.
Damn man. Kicking myself. I should have said me, I should have said me!
GRRRRRR
-Mal
We need to act as if the President is ahead, confident and cheerful, but WORK as if he were behind, informed and unrelenting.