Hurricane Ivan Upgraded to Category 5 Hurricane

NOAA National Hurricane Center ^ | September 8, 2004 | NOAA National Hurricane Center

[bd476]

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HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 25

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 AM AST WED SEP 08 2004

...Dangerous Hurricane Ivan heading for the central Caribbean Sea...

A hurricane warning remains in effect for Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao.

A hurricane watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for The Guarjira Peninsula of Columbia...and for the entire Northern Coast of Venezuela.

At 11 AM AST...1500z...the Government of Haiti has issued a Hurricane Watch for the entire Southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the Dominican Republic Westward...including Port Au Prince.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Southwestern coast of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo Westward to Pedernales.

Interests in Central and Western Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.

At 11 AM AST...1500z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near Latitude 12.7 North...Longitude 66.2 West or about 145 miles...235 Km...East-Northeast of Bonaire and about 795 miles...1280 km... EAST-Southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

Ivan is moving toward the West-Northwest near 16 mph...26 km/hr. This motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track...the center of Ivan should move North of Aruba... Bonaire...and Curacao later today. However...any deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring the center close to those islands.

Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale with maximum sustained winds near 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 2 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 KM… from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles...260 KM.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 MB...28.20 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near the center of ivan in the hurricane warning area.

Rainfall Amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the path of Ivan.

Repeating the 11 AM AST position...12.7 N... 66.2 W. Movement toward...West-Northwest near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 MPH. Minimum central pressure... 955 MB.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor Products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 pm AST followed by the next complete advisory at 5 pm AST.

Forecaster Avila

$$

[TexasNative2000]

"He always goes starboard at the bottom of the hour."

[JellyJam]

Me, too ... another hit like that on Charlotte County and it will finish it off for good.

[MeekOneGOP]

bump!

[Dog Gone]

I'm sure you're well aware of this, but those long range model runs are notoriously prone to change in subsequent runs. This is especially true when there is a lack of strong steering elements which will obviously affect the storm's track.

It is truly hard to imagine the GFS outcome as being even remotely possible at this point.

Right now, I'd suggest the key thing to look at is where Ivan passes the island of Jamaica. If it's south of the island by very much, this storm could become a Mexican or Texas event. If it's north, then it has Cuba and Florida written all over it. And if it directly hits Jamaica, it might be seriously weakened by the mountains.

[kitkat]

Thanks for the new thread. bd476, thanks for showing the link to the old thread as well. That keeps us up to speed and saves our time.

[Marak]

What site are you getting this information from?

[Howlin]

Ivan Terrorises Grenada - Now Heading for Jamaica and the U.S.

"PA"


Hurricane Ivan, with winds of more than 140 mph, was barrelling across the Caribbean toward more holiday isles tonight after devastating Grenada.

Ivan is on course to hit the US mainland at the weekend after crossing over Jamaica and Cuba.

It made a direct hit on Grenada with ferocious winds, causing “incalculable damage” and killing at least three people as it collapsed concrete homes into piles of rubble and hurled hundreds of the island’s landmark red zinc roofs through the air.

The most powerful storm to hit the Caribbean in 14 years wrecked the capital, St George’s, and also damaged homes in Barbados, St Lucia and St Vincent.

Thousands were without water, electricity and telephone service, just days after Hurricane Frances rampaged through.

Ivan strengthened even as it was over Grenada, becoming a Category 4 storm and got even stronger as it headed across the Caribbean Sea, passing north of the Dutch Caribbean islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao.

It is threatening to cross right over Jamaica by Friday morning or Saturday, and then Cuba, the US National Hurricane Centre in Miami said.

http://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=3470465

[Strategerist]

Like I said, most of the model maps on the web are terrible for a variety of reasons (incomplete, slow to update, or show TOO MANY models and don't label them, giving a false impression of model spread.)

A couple of those models are text output..the GFDL and UKMET (the Bracknell "vort tracker") and the various NHC models are avaliable at a Florida State University ftp site. I import these into a program (beta version, not currently avaliable, I didn't write it) that generates my own map.

For the other models, I use 3 different sites and import the tracks with mouse clicks on a SLP or Vorticity map.

I'll TRY posting the link to my site; the name of it is sort of a play on the many self-important tropical "Center" sites on the web done by non-meteorologists (I'm not one either) that are just some guy in front of a computer.

I'm not really sure if it can take the hits, but here goes; updates are erratic as I need to be awake and at home, of course. I delete the various irrelevant old models, as the hideous "spaghetti map" does not.

GUNA (the thick black line) is the most important to NHC.

(Note; PLEASE no one paste the modelmap as an image in a thread here!)

http://home.comcast.net/~johnk8/INDEX.HTML

[Truth666]

storm damage allowed prisoners to escape Grenada’s prison

[Strategerist]

New ECMWF is in (Because of the nature of the maps I can't import the storm positions to plot on my site.)

It hits Miami, goes up the East Coast of FL, and ends up in South Carolina.

[Severa]

No s**t. My mom just got back home from FL yesterday. FL relatives managed to make it through Frances ok, just some tree damage in yards is all....

GAH. Here we go again...

[Gabz]

Good grief, your poor mother. How did Dad handle it??????

Here we go again is right.

[Severa]

He sounded ok, only thing he had to contend with was the fact the dishwasher decided to die on him. He's been too busy trying to find parts to fix it...

You missed the fun yesterday. First day of school. My 5 yr old son Robbie had an all day fit while my 7 1/2 yr old autistic son JJ had a great day. *head shake* Go figure. Robbie did a lot better today, thank God.

[Gabz]

Poor Dad!!!!

Jax seemed to be happy with first day of school yesterday....we'll see about today. The bus is due home in about 10 minutes!

[Marak]

Thanks for the link! It looks like you have put a bit of thought into this. As someone who lives in hurricane country, I am interested in how the different computer models generate the eventual track that NHC publishes.

[firewalk]

Thanks for the ping

[ConservativeLawyer]

Thanks for the hurricane ping.

Dang, I still don't have electricity at the house after Frances.

[JellyJam]

[jpsb]

UKMET was pretty good as I recall.

[Dog Gone]

New storm track map for Ivan