2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/6/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, September 6, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama	98.0	9	0
Alaska	96.0	3	0
Arizona	78.0	10	0
Arkansas	73.0	6	0
California	12.0	0	55
Colorado	76.0	9	0
Connecticut	8.0	0	7
Delaware	16.0	0	3
District of Columbia	1.0	0	3
Florida	60.3	27	0
Georgia	96.5	15	0
Hawaii	10.0	0	4
Idaho	95.5	4	0
Illinois	8.0	0	21
Indiana	96.0	11	0
Iowa	41.0	0	7
Kansas	96.0	6	0
Kentucky	92.5	8	0
Louisiana	92.5	9	0
Maine	26.5	0	4
Maryland	14.0	0	10
Massachusetts	3.0	0	12
Michigan	33.0	0	17
Minnesota	41.0	0	10
Mississippi	96.0	6	0
Missouri	67.0	11	0
Montana	95.0	3	0
Nebraska	96.0	5	0
Nevada	60.0	5	0
New Hampshire	41.5	0	4
New Jersey	14.0	0	15
New Mexico	41.5	0	5
New York	7.0	0	31
North Carolina	81.0	15	0
North Dakota	96.0	3	0
Ohio	64.0	20	0
Oklahoma	97.0	7	0
Oregon	37.5	0	7
Pennsylvania	43.0	0	21
Rhode Island	4.0	0	4
South Carolina	95.0	8	0
South Dakota	96.0	3	0
Tennessee	78.6	11	0
Texas	98.0	34	0
Utah	96.0	5	0
Vermont	7.0	0	3
Virginia	86.0	13	0
Washington	26.0	0	11
West Virginia	66.0	5	0
Wisconsin	57.0	10	0
Wyoming	97.0	3	0
Totals		284	254

[jdege]

Just a little bump...

Date	Prob. Bush Win	Mean EVs	Std. Dev.
01/21	96.8%	341.5	41.1
01/26	95.5%	334.8	40.6
02/02	92.2%	323.8	39.7
02/09	83.0%	307.8	40.3
02/16	78.4%	300.4	39.4
02/23	76.2%	298.2	39.6
03/01	74.5%	295.9	39.3
03/08	68.0%	289.2	39.8
03/15	68.0%	288.8	39.0
03/22	68.5%	289.3	38.8
03/29	69.4%	290.1	38.8
04/05	71.2%	292.3	39.1
04/12	70.4%	290.6	38.1
04/19	68.6%	288.1	36.7
04/26	64.9%	284.5	36.3
05/03	66.3%	285.7	36.3
05/10	65.6%	285.3	36.8
05/17	65.2%	284.8	36.6
05/24	60.0%	280.3	36.9
05/31	61.1%	281.2	36.8
06/07	60.5%	280.6	36.5
06/14	65.0%	285.0	36.6
06/21	63.9%	284.0	36.8
06/28	58.4%	278.8	36.7
07/05	58.7%	279.1	36.7
07/12	53.1%	274.2	36.5
07/19	48.2%	269.8	35.7
07/26	43.4%	265.6	35.0
08/02	42.1%	264.3	34.7
08/09	42.9%	265.2	34.5
08/16	42.6%	264.9	34.2
08/23	41.8%	264.3	34.5
08/30	56.1%	276.4	35.0
09/06	65.0%	284.1	35.0

[Future Useless Eater]

These state figures at tradesports don't seem to change much until a major pollster publishes THEIR poll, and it gets widespread notice.

The masses have obviously not seen these yet...
(same hold true for MOST other battleground states)
Pennsylvania 2004 Polls

Presidential Race - 21 Electoral College Votes
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Poll | Date	Sample	MoE	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Spread	2000 Vote
Strategic Vision* | 8/28-8/30	801 LV	3.0	47	45	1	Bush +2	Gore +5

which was even BEFORE the Convention!...
...OR THIS, AFTER the Convention...

---

Survey USA/   Who Will                 Bush 
Nielsen       Win in     BEFORE AFTER  Improvement
Market Area   November?   RNC    RNC   Pre/Post-RNC
------------------------------------- 
TV Market              8/26/04 9/3/04
------------- -------- ------- ------
IOWA
------------- ----------------------
Des Moines    Bush        50%    58%
              ----------------------  +16%
              Kerry       45%    37%
------------- ----------------------
PENNSYLVANIA 
------------- -------- ------- -----
Philadelphia  Bush        44%    54%
              ----------------------  +19%
              Kerry       52%    43%
------------- ----------------------
Pittsburgh    
              Bush        49%    64%
              ----------------------  +21%
              Kerry       47%    33%
------------- ----------------------
State of PA   Bush        51%    59%
              ----------------------  +16%
              Kerry       44%    36%

------------- ----------------------

------------- ----------------------
StateOf MAINE Bush        47%    57%
              ----------------------  +18%
              Kerry       47%    39%
------------- ----------------------

[MrChips]

I have my bottle of champagne in the frig already!

[So Cal Rocket]

If PA goes for Bush early in the evening, we can all go to bed early on Election Night

I am really hoping for an early blowout for Bush... I'd love to have the media call PA, FL, and OH for Bush right after the polls close. This will depress Dem voter turnout on the West Coast and might help CA, OR, WA, and NV get rid of their Dem Senators.

[Artemis Webb]

Because they are liberal Republicans. Both Guiliani (sp) and the current mayor are pro abortion and pro gay rights.

[Artemis Webb]

Not to say I would not LOVE to be wrong!!! :)

[Believe_In_The_Singularity]

Didn't they pass a law or didn't the MSM agree to an arrangement where they will not call any state until all booths are closed across the entire nation?

I thought someone did something to address this after all of the mess-ups in 2000.

I'd be interested in knowing if anyone had a definite answer.

BITS

[GeorgeW23225]

Right you are!!The MSM can NOT predict a winner until 11:01pm est......THEN the party can start!!

[Momaw Nadon]

Thanks jdege!

[Southack]

"Will Dubya's coattails mean a filibuster-proof senate?"

No. We'll have about 55 Republican Senators after the November elections take effect in January. 60 would be needed to end a filibuster, and even then, there are 4 Rino Senators who would support Democratic flibusters over several issues and nominees.

5 Legislative Days Left Until The AWB Expires

[Martins kid]

Thank you.