Posted on 09/06/2004 4:53:49 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
Date | Prob. Bush Win | Mean EVs | Std. Dev. |
01/21 | 96.8% | 341.5 | 41.1 |
01/26 | 95.5% | 334.8 | 40.6 |
02/02 | 92.2% | 323.8 | 39.7 |
02/09 | 83.0% | 307.8 | 40.3 |
02/16 | 78.4% | 300.4 | 39.4 |
02/23 | 76.2% | 298.2 | 39.6 |
03/01 | 74.5% | 295.9 | 39.3 |
03/08 | 68.0% | 289.2 | 39.8 |
03/15 | 68.0% | 288.8 | 39.0 |
03/22 | 68.5% | 289.3 | 38.8 |
03/29 | 69.4% | 290.1 | 38.8 |
04/05 | 71.2% | 292.3 | 39.1 |
04/12 | 70.4% | 290.6 | 38.1 |
04/19 | 68.6% | 288.1 | 36.7 |
04/26 | 64.9% | 284.5 | 36.3 |
05/03 | 66.3% | 285.7 | 36.3 |
05/10 | 65.6% | 285.3 | 36.8 |
05/17 | 65.2% | 284.8 | 36.6 |
05/24 | 60.0% | 280.3 | 36.9 |
05/31 | 61.1% | 281.2 | 36.8 |
06/07 | 60.5% | 280.6 | 36.5 |
06/14 | 65.0% | 285.0 | 36.6 |
06/21 | 63.9% | 284.0 | 36.8 |
06/28 | 58.4% | 278.8 | 36.7 |
07/05 | 58.7% | 279.1 | 36.7 |
07/12 | 53.1% | 274.2 | 36.5 |
07/19 | 48.2% | 269.8 | 35.7 |
07/26 | 43.4% | 265.6 | 35.0 |
08/02 | 42.1% | 264.3 | 34.7 |
08/09 | 42.9% | 265.2 | 34.5 |
08/16 | 42.6% | 264.9 | 34.2 |
08/23 | 41.8% | 264.3 | 34.5 |
08/30 | 56.1% | 276.4 | 35.0 |
09/06 | 65.0% | 284.1 | 35.0 |
The masses have obviously not seen these yet...
(same hold true for MOST other battleground states)
Pennsylvania 2004 Polls
Presidential Race - 21 Electoral College Votes
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Poll | Date
|
Sample
|
MoE
|
Bush
|
Kerry
|
Nader
|
Spread
|
2000 Vote
|
801 LV
|
3.0
|
47
|
45
|
1
|
Bush +2
|
Gore +5
|
which was even BEFORE the Convention!...
...OR THIS, AFTER the Convention...
Survey USA/ Who Will Bush Nielsen Win in BEFORE AFTER Improvement Market Area November? RNC RNC Pre/Post-RNC ------------------------------------- TV Market 8/26/04 9/3/04 ------------- -------- ------- ------ IOWA ------------- ---------------------- Des Moines Bush 50% 58% ---------------------- +16% Kerry 45% 37% ------------- ---------------------- PENNSYLVANIA ------------- -------- ------- ----- Philadelphia Bush 44% 54% ---------------------- +19% Kerry 52% 43% ------------- ---------------------- Pittsburgh Bush 49% 64% ---------------------- +21% Kerry 47% 33% ------------- ---------------------- State of PA Bush 51% 59% ---------------------- +16% Kerry 44% 36% ------------- ---------------------- ------------- ---------------------- StateOf MAINE Bush 47% 57% ---------------------- +18% Kerry 47% 39% ------------- ----------------------
I have my bottle of champagne in the frig already!
I am really hoping for an early blowout for Bush... I'd love to have the media call PA, FL, and OH for Bush right after the polls close. This will depress Dem voter turnout on the West Coast and might help CA, OR, WA, and NV get rid of their Dem Senators.
Because they are liberal Republicans. Both Guiliani (sp) and the current mayor are pro abortion and pro gay rights.
Not to say I would not LOVE to be wrong!!! :)
I thought someone did something to address this after all of the mess-ups in 2000.
I'd be interested in knowing if anyone had a definite answer.
BITS
Right you are!!The MSM can NOT predict a winner until 11:01pm est......THEN the party can start!!
Thanks jdege!
No. We'll have about 55 Republican Senators after the November elections take effect in January. 60 would be needed to end a filibuster, and even then, there are 4 Rino Senators who would support Democratic flibusters over several issues and nominees.
5 Legislative Days Left Until The AWB Expires
Thank you.
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