Posted on 09/06/2004 4:53:49 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 284 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 254 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 284.12 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/30/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
Notice New Mexico is ruining that nice patch of blue in the middle of the country. With folks who voted in that rat of a governor, it's no wonder. I'll never forgive him for giving the Texas sock puppets shelter and his tourist commercials cause immediate channel switches.
NM, IA, MN, and PA will be the next four to switch.
Where can one find accurate polling data for House and Senate races? Will Dubya's coattails mean a filibuster-proof senate?
Please explain why New York is only a 7% chance of a Bush win when they have had a Republican governor for 10 years. New York City, the most liberal area of the state, has had a Republican mayor for many years.
I know NYC Republicans are more liberal than mainstream Republicans, but it just seems like Republicans would have gained much more support during the past decade. Even Ronald Reagan won in New York!
Please explain why New York is only a 7% chance of a Bush win when they have had a Republican governor for 10 years. New York City, the most liberal area of the state, has had a Republican mayor for many years. A post-911 New York will have a stronger Republican slant this year over previous years, due to traditional Dems voting the War on Terror issue above other concerns-- the 'Koch Effect.' If this has not been factored into these figures, it should be.
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Bush/
Cheney |
Kerry/
Edwards |
Spread
|
|
RCP Average
|
8/30 - 9/4
|
49.4%
|
44.2%
|
Bush +5.2
|
|
9/2 - 9/4
|
48%
|
46%
|
Bush +2
|
|
|
9/2 - 9/3
|
54%
|
43%
|
Bush +11
|
|
|
8/31 - 9/2
|
51%
|
41%
|
Bush +10
|
|
|
8/30 - 9/2
|
46%
|
44%
|
Bush +2
|
|
|
8/30 - 9/1
|
48%
|
47%
|
Bush +1
|
This is the prediction of futures traders, and how much money they are willing to bet. It is not based on any survey data.
I was wondering that myself what is wrong with New Mexico.
"NM, IA, MN, and PA will be the next four to switch."
Pennsylvania is definitely moving toward Bush....big time!
If PA goes for Bush early in the evening, we can all go to bed early on Election Night.......with a smile on our faces. Of course, we won't. We will be up celebrating through the night.
Anyone volunteering to help Libs and Hollyweirdos with their packing for their promised moves out of the USA?
Probably NM rodents have been successful in registering enough illegal aliens, um, I mean homeless without ID.
Bush lost NM in 2000 by less than 400 votes. Can't imagine him losing it now. He's been tested by experience; while Kerry's not nearly as appealing as Gore (ha!)
This wouldn't happen to be an excel spreadsheet, would it?
Could I get a copy?
I have a special celebration planned for my university. My wife gave me, for my birthday, a full-size cutout of G.W., so I'm bringing that to my office and putting it right in my door! Take that, ya libs!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.