The Empty Cradle Will Rock (abortion costs Dem votes)

Opinion Journal/WSJ ^ | June 28, 2004 | Larry L. Eastland

[laurav]

THE ROE EFFECT

The Empty Cradle Will Rock How abortion is costing the Democrats voters--literally. BY LARRY L. EASTLAND Monday, June 28, 2004 12:01 a.m. EDT

More than 40 million legal abortions have been performed and documented in the 30 years since the U.S. Supreme Court declared abortion legal. The debate remains focused on the legality and morality of abortion. What's largely ignored is a factual analysis of the political consequences of 40 million abortions. Consider:

• There were 12,274,368 in the Voting Age Population of 205,815,000 missing from the 2000 presidential election, because of abortions from 1973-82.

• In this year's election, there will be 18,336,576 in the Voting Age Population missing because of abortions between 1972 and 1986.

• In the 2008 election, 24,408,960 in the Voting Age Population will be missing because of abortions between 1973-90.

These numbers will not change. They are based on individual choices made--aggregated nationally--as long as 30 years ago. Look inside these numbers at where the political impact is felt most. Do Democrats realize that millions of Missing Voters--due to the abortion policies they advocate--gave George W. Bush the margin of victory in 2000?

[hattend]

These two liberals won't be 'breeding'.

Thank you, God!

[laurav]

Yes, I just saw Opinion Journal reprinted it from the Spectator.

[TedsGarage]

This is sort of a fallacious argument, because it fails to take into account what the political landscape would be like if abortion were still illegal. For example, a lot of formerly Democratic evangelicals now vote Republican because they loathe abortion. If abortion were still illegal, would they have any reason to vote GOP?

It also assumes that "Democrat" and "Republican" are qualities that are passed on like ethnicity, when we all know a family's party ID can change from one generation to the next.

[tophat9000]

It would be ironic if being pro abortion is a genetic trait

[laurav]

I agree there are several fallacious parts of this argument. First, as you said, that political identity is genetic. It isn't. My parents are Democrats. Their parents were Republicans. So help me, my children could become flaming Greens. On the other hand, one's worldview IS largely shaped by one's parents and one's upbringing. So while we all know the story of the hippie parents with the Alex P. Keaton child, the apples don't fall too far from the tree.
Then there's the implication that the act of aborting the child had no further implications for that particular mother. I think many women who have abortions do go on to have other children eventually, so perhaps they would have had 2 children all along, it's just the two are later than if abortion hadn't been legal. Also, some of those pregnancies might not have occurred if abortion were illegal. Perhaps people would have been more careful, knowing that a birth control failure would definitely result in a child. So to say these people are "missing" implies holding many demographic things constant that are impossible to predict.
Then there is the change that abortion itself has wrought on the political landscape, as you point out. Some people vote GOP *because* of abortion. Of course, if abortion weren't legal, people who wanted to change the situation would vote for the party that wanted to legalize it. This would affect liberals, who would have to vote with the Dems. Right now, pro-life voters who vote on that issue have no choice but to cast a protest vote with the GOP. Pro-choice voters can vote for either party, because Roe is unlikely to be overturned soon.
All that said... I think it's a very interesting article. Given the closeness of the political landscape anyway, any switch one way or the other is huge.

[Salman]

Why suppose that the aborted babies would have grown up to be Democrats?

[John O]

For example, a lot of formerly Democratic evangelicals now vote Republican because they loathe abortion. If abortion were still illegal, would they have any reason to vote GOP?

They'd probably still vote democrat but then the democrat party would still be the far more conservative party of the late 40's and 50's rather than the anti-American pro-sexual perversity party that we know it as.

I wouldn't mind the rats if they were still the party they were in the 50's. (for the most part)

[laurav]

No one is saying they all would. Just that, given voting trends and the proportion of conservatives vs. liberals who have abortions, more of those aborted babies would have been Democrats than Republicans. Given the razor margin of the last election, that's enough.

[Flying Circus]

Ping

[Cicero]

I drove into Montpelier this morning, and got behind what looked like a pair of diesel dykes with a bumper sticker that read: "It's easier to change a condom than a diaper."

I couldn't help thinking, what a cold-hearted, empty, selfish life would result from such an attitude.

[Bronco_Buster_FweetHyagh]

Back during college years (90-97) I had several intense debates and discussions with some very intelligent, even-keeled liberal/pro-choice students and scholars. I remember making the point of this article as a hypothesis, that eventually, the democratic party would suffer a loss of votes from the pro-choice movement because, as I assumed at that time, democrats were, as a group, more immoral than conservatives, and thus likely had more abortions, and thus eventually less party members.

I left the hypothesis at that point, because I couldn't really think of a way to prove/link the relative morality of democrats/republicans, or the link to abortion due to privacy rights and unreliability of polls when it comes to something so intensely personal as abortion.

I think that this article has just touched on one of the most important issues facing our nation.

[CyberCowboy777]

Abortion and government Education - two peas in a pod.

The lefties are not having enough babies, so they need to train up the next batch of liberals as "surrogate" parents. Thus the heavy involvement of liberals in the government education system. Train them or dumb them down - one way or the other they keep their numbers up.

Thankfully there are folks like you or my parents. Having kids and teaching them to be more than cogs.

[cgk]

Pro-life/pro-baby ping.

This really isn't the way I want to "win". By aborting the pro-aborts out of the gene pool.

[cpforlife.org]

Please let me know if you want on or off my Pro-Life Ping List.

[trussell]

EWWWWW, that is just nasty!!

[the_daug]

I think that the missing (aborted) would sure had put a dent in the illegal immigration.

[narses]

This is a little simplistic (lies, d*mned lies and statistics leaps to mind) but I betcha the left goes nuts on it.

[Westbrook]

The Democrats don't need to breed voters.

They import them from foreign nations and recruit them in the tax-funded, union-run government schools.

[Salvation]

&&• There were 12,274,368 in the Voting Age Population of 205,815,000 missing from the 2000 presidential election, because of abortions from 1973-82.

• In this year's election, there will be 18,336,576 in the Voting Age Population missing because of abortions between 1972 and 1986.

• In the 2008 election, 24,408,960 in the Voting Age Population will be missing because of abortions between 1973-90.**

I don't think the dysfunction dimocrats get it!

[Salvation]

There used to be a rolling number of abortions here (constantly updated), but I'm not seeing it right now.