Posted on 06/23/2004 5:22:33 PM PDT by Dales
Alaska, Alabama, Arizona, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Wyoming would all go for Bush. That's 24.
Arkansas, California, Hawaii, Massachusettes, Maryland, Maine, North Dakota, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington would go Kerry. That's 11.
Connecticut has only a 1 seat Democrat edge but they are more likely to pick up 1 than lose 1, so it goes Kerry giving him 12.
Illinois has a 1 seat Republican edge, but at an eyeball glance I don't see any that we are going to lose, so that's 25 for the good guys.
Missouri is another where we have a 1 seat edge. But none of our guys appears too vulnerable. 26.
North Carolina is another. Again I don't see any losses. 27.
New Jersey is a 1 seat edge for the Democrats and we won't gain ground. 13.
West Virginia has a 1 seat Democrat edge that they should hold. 14.
Louisiana we have a 1 seat edge. Tauzin's seat is vulnerable for us, but on their side both Alexander's seat and Johns' seats are.
Minnesota has an even split and probably will after the election.
Mississippi has an even split and probably will after the election.
New Mexico we have a 1 seat edge but could possibly lose it.
Nevada has a 1 seat Republican edge but we could possibly lose it.
Oregon has a 2 seat Democrat edge but two of their incumbents are vulnerable.
South Dakota depends on the Herseth/Diedrich rematch. Whichever party wins that would get it.
Tennessee has a 1 seat Democrat edge but they are not going to lose it.
Wisconsin has a split delegation, but Democrat Ron Kind is vulnerable.
So I see it as 27-14 with 9 states that either would deadlock or could be decided on election day. If it goes to the House, we win.
Personally I find the betting odds on www.tradesports.com ( which equal the London bookmaker odds ) more persuasive. Polls can lie, but when people bet money they are serious!
Great work on behalf of all of us.
Connecticut actually has a one-seat Republican edge (Simmons, Johnson and Shays are all GOP). However, John Kerry should win all of those districts by 10-15 points. Especially Simmons' District 2, which will be closer to the 15-range. He will perennially have a tough race. Casting a vote for Bush could be uncomfortable for any three of those Republicans, and I wonder if one of them might vote their district rather than their party. Can they chicken out and abstain?
What happens if a state like Minnesota deadlocks? Is there a mechanism for breaking the tie, or does that state end up effectively not casting a vote?
I think W would win it, but there would be an all-out assault from the media and the RATS to give the election to JFnK -- especially if he were the popular vote winner. The GOP historically has not held up well in such situations.
Bottom line is I really hope W wins it without having to go to the House.
When you go to the individual state breakdowns, the margin for the first two states are incorrect. In NH, you have Bush winning the last Zogby poll although the numbers are for Kerry. The next state has Kerry +4 when it should be +7.
"What happens if a state like Minnesota deadlocks? Is there a mechanism for breaking the tie, or does that state end up effectively not casting a vote?"
They can't cast a vote. If the House deadlocks, the VP elected by the Senate could be "acting President" for up to 4 years.
Acting President McCain?
They would be under a lot more pressure if the split delegation states were not stalemated.
There is no provision for breaking ties in state delegations.
I think the person who said it is the incoming Congress that votes was wrong though, which obviously changes my analysis a tad (SD would go to the Democrats).
Heads up. With things this close, remember Nebraska and Maine are not winner take all. They divide up their districts and apportion EVs accordingly.
Right now we have 31 states with a GOP majority. Again, that should be enough for W to win, but at that point virtually anything could happen.
Although there's a lot of time before November, what concerns me is the weakness Bush shows in New Hampshire and West Virginia.
The state of the steel industry in WV is obviously costing him support but NH is another story. Given the GOP advantage in that state, I'm wondering why Bush is struggling there.
Let's say that Bush loses WV. He needs to pick up a state somewhere else. I'm looking at some of the other states (Iowa, Oregon, etc) and I see those tilting towards Kerry at the end.
For the first time, I'm not feeling very optimistic about the election.
Overall, with 2 Bush states NH and WV sitting in Kerry's column, he has to win all his column plus OH and at least one other state. On that note, since Bush is leading in OH about as much as he is in FL, I wonder why its in the Tossup category.
I have to correct myself about OH, the poll I was referring to, Mason-Dixon, is almost a month old so the data is a bit stale even if the only recent polls are dubious with the exception of Rasmussen. I guess its still a tossup barring a new poll from someone reputable.
Furthermore regarding OH, isn't interesting even if the Zogby Interactive polls are generally suspect, that the TREND over the last 3 polls is solidly pro-Bush. Can't wait until our 527's start hitting him starting with the new Club for Growth spot!
Now that I mention that, the ZI polls for PA are also showing a similar but smaller push to Bush. We will know early on election night if Bush wins PA, its over.
And WV was a state that was amazing we won last time.
I think we'll take WV again though in the end.
I also think that by then, it won't come down to these small states. We're going to win big or lose big.
False bravado. Kerry is certainly not campaigning like he's winning and it really shows that only overly-sampled-with-Democrats polls can show Kerry ahead if even mildly. Everyone else has Bush with the lead and the momentum.
Now, if Bush wins OH, and everything else in Dales chart holds through the election, it will be a 269-269 tie. Interesting.
Because the poll he is leading in is a Zogby Interactive poll, which I put absolutely zero credence in. I put it up just so people can make their own decisions, but for me an internet based poll using a self-selected sample (partly recruited from marijuana legalization websites) is not to be taken seriously.
You mean if everything else holds through on my chart, but of the complete tossup states Bush wins Ohio while Kerry wins the other four.
Then yes, that would make 269-269. Again assuming that Bush does not peel off one of Maine's electoral votes.
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