Posted on 06/04/2004 9:02:47 PM PDT by stainlessbanner
Most analysts say Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts could have a hard time carrying Southern states, with the possible exception of Florida. Here's a look at the region's political landscape:
NORTH CAROLINA
(15 ELECTORAL VOTES)
The most recent Democrat to carry the Tar Heel State was Jimmy Carter of Georgia who beat President Gerald Ford by 11 percentage points in 1976. The only Democrat to come close since then was Bill Clinton, who in 1992 lost to the elder President Bush, 43.4 percent to 42.7 percent. In 2000, George W. Bush easily defeated Vice President Al Gore, 56 percent to 43 percent. In the most recent statewide race, in 2002, voters put Republican Elizabeth Dole in the U.S. Senate.
FLORIDA
(27 ELECTORAL VOTES)
The state is considered part of the South by virtue of location, not culture. Clinton carried it in 1996, 48 percent to 43 percent. Bush won the fiercely contested battle in 2000. Both senators are Democrats, but Republican Jeb Bush, the president's brother, occupies the Governor's Mansion.
GEORGIA
(15 ELECTORAL VOTES)
Clinton won narrowly in 1992 but lost a close race to Republican Bob Dole in 1996. In 2000, Bush bested Gore, 55 percent to 43 percent. In 2002, Republican Saxby Chambliss was elected to the Senate and Sonny Perdue became the state's first Republican governor since Reconstruction.
VIRGINIA
(13 ELECTORAL VOTES)
In the 1980s, the state was solidly Republican, but it is more competitive now. Clinton lost by 2 percentage points in 1996. In 2000, Bush won 52 percent to 44 percent. In 2001, the state elected Democrat Mark Warner as governor.
TENNESSEE
(11 ELECTORAL VOTES)
The state had been competitive in recent cycles, with Clinton beating Dole by 2 percentage points in 1996. But in 2000, Gore lost his home state to Bush, 51 percent to 47 percent. In 2002, Republican Lamar Alexander was elected to the Senate, while Democrat Phil Bredesen was elected governor.
LOUISIANA
(9 ELECTORAL VOTES)
Clinton easily carried the state in 1996. But in 2000, Bush defeated Gore, 53 percent to 45 percent. Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu narrowly won re-election in 2002, and in 2003, voters elected another Democrat, Kathleen Blanco, as governor.
SOUTH CAROLINA
(8 ELECTORAL VOTES)
In 1968, South Carolina was the only Deep South state to vote for Republican Richard Nixon over Alabama Gov. George Wallace, who ran as an independent. Since then, South Carolina has voted for only one Democrat: Carter in 1976. In 2000, Bush beat Gore, 57 percent to 41 percent. In 2002, Republican Lindsey Graham was elected to the Senate, and Republican Mark Sanford was elected governor.
ARKANSAS
(6 ELECTORAL VOTES)
The state voted for Clinton, its native son, in 1992 and 1996, by comfortable margins. But in 2000, Bush won 51 percent to 46 percent. In 2002, Democrat Mark Pryor was elected to the Senate.
MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, TEXAS
(6, 9 AND 34 ELECTORAL VOTES)
Carter, in 1976, was the most recent Democrat to win these three states, which all went decisively for Bush in 2000. Republicans occupy both Senate seats and the governor's mansions in all three states.
BTTT
John Kerry is the worst type of candidate for the South (Or Midwest...or anywhere outside of Beacon Hill for that matter)
Dixie politics bump
Good news bump.
He'll be so shocked to discover the size of the landslide that Bush won and the states which Kerry & the Democrats has taken for granted goes over to Bush by a very significant margin.
A stuck up metrosexual with a BAH-stun accent? Who faked his way to obtain purple hearts so he could run away from Vietnam after pretending to be John F. Kennedy in his own "PT-109"? Then came back from Vietnam and trashed the people that really fought there? A man who got other US soldiers killed because of his big mouth? $1,000 haircuts? $7K bicycles with his name on them? Jet plane that says he's already president? Botox? Married to and living off of a funny talking woman who got all her money just because her husband died? Not do well in the South? Duh!
Baldwin county, Alabama, last time, voted 70% for Bush. There is not one Democrat left in the county government.
Dixie Bump!
The South's gonna do it again...
Late night bump
I believe it will be Bush in a landslide -- I can't see the southern states voting for a liberal northerner. All of the above statistics are southern vs. southern candidates, which foreshadows major trouble for Mr. Kerry.
TN, NC and FL are arguably the most prone to toss-up.
TN elected Bredesen because he is a modrut and the last Governor who was a Republican was a buffoon and a liar.
Plus, the Republican candidate against Bredesen was ineffectual.
TN is probably 55% Pubbie.....I wish it were more but like NC, it has seen huge migration from the North. I'd guess metro Nashville (1.5M) is now 20-25% Northern transplants....not that all are libs but most of the libs on my street are Northern....anectdotal I know.
Lots of Mexicans now too and here they vote heavily Dem and I think all the candidates they have fielded here are Dem.
John F*ckin' is a Yankee Brahmin. He's never been south of the Mason-Dixie in his entire life. With the exception of stops in Florida, the South is no go territory for a liberal Democratic presidential candidate.
You're on the other side of the bay aren't you Blam?
Yup. I'm in Mobile county. Our voting record is close to that of Baldwin county but not quite as good.
Texas bump.
Tennessee elected Phil Bredesen, a transplanted Yankee (!) as governor purely because of RINO Don Sunquist, who set the Tenn GOP back maybe 20 years!
Bredesen's opponent, Van Hilleary was perhaps not the most effective campaigner, but I question whether it's fair to call HIM "ineffectual." After all, in his run for Congress in '94 he did beat the much-touted Jim Cooper.
Van was a wonderful Conservative in Congress, and Tennessee would be fortunate to have him again
Collectively, 49 electoral votes!
And THIS time, Texas will put out enough votes for Bush to win the popular vote too!
As he would have last time if so many, confident of a Bush landslide, had not stayed home.
Running a rich elitest New England yankee just will not get much traction in many parts of the South.
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