TN, NC and FL are arguably the most prone to toss-up.
TN elected Bredesen because he is a modrut and the last Governor who was a Republican was a buffoon and a liar.
Plus, the Republican candidate against Bredesen was ineffectual.
TN is probably 55% Pubbie.....I wish it were more but like NC, it has seen huge migration from the North. I'd guess metro Nashville (1.5M) is now 20-25% Northern transplants....not that all are libs but most of the libs on my street are Northern....anectdotal I know.
Lots of Mexicans now too and here they vote heavily Dem and I think all the candidates they have fielded here are Dem.
Tennessee elected Phil Bredesen, a transplanted Yankee (!) as governor purely because of RINO Don Sunquist, who set the Tenn GOP back maybe 20 years!
Bredesen's opponent, Van Hilleary was perhaps not the most effective campaigner, but I question whether it's fair to call HIM "ineffectual." After all, in his run for Congress in '94 he did beat the much-touted Jim Cooper.
Van was a wonderful Conservative in Congress, and Tennessee would be fortunate to have him again