Posted on 06/02/2004 5:47:21 AM PDT by Darth Reagan
KERRY SURGE FALLS SHORT
Bush 47.77% - 274 | Kerry 48.52% - 264
June 1, 2004
From the May 11 to the May 18 Composite Polls, there was a net change of 4.13% in favor of Kerry, taking him from a deficit of 1.41% to a lead of 2.72% -- the highest lead for either candidate since I began tracking the numbers on March 8. Since the Composite Poll methodology constrains weekly swings by factoring in the previous week's composite result, this should be seen as a significant swing to Kerry. That week, Kerry led by 5 in the CNN/Time poll, 4 in the Zogby poll and 1 in the Newsweek poll.
Since then, his lead has shrunk each week. To 2.38% on May 25, and now to 0.75%. What looked like a real surge for Kerry has pulled back to dead even.
And the Electoral Vote prediction is back to 2000, with Kerry gaining only New Hampshire. Welcome to the status quo.
During Kerry's surge, he had taken a lead in the Electoral Vote Prediction, 284-254. But this week, Bush jumps back ahead by the slimmest of margins, 274-264. The difference was the recent Mason Dixon Ohio Poll, showing a Bush lead in that all important Battleground of 6 points. Coming two weeks after an American Research Group poll giving Kerry a 7 point lead in Ohio, and therefore, weighted more heavily, the Composite Poll analysis gives Bush a meaningless lead in Ohio of 0.27%. If Ohio is that close on November 2, you better hope you paced yourself and didn't take too many shots early that night.
And Ohio is why I've changed the map coloring scheme. Any state in which I predict a margin of less than 2%, I'll color white. What's the use in calling it Lean Kerry or Lean Bush when it's going to continue to fluctuate like Cesium 133? The bottom line numbers will still predict a fully allocated electoral vote, but you'll be able to get the details, as usually, at the bottom of the Composite Poll page.
I'll also start reporting a few more numbers this week from the Composite Poll. In the numbers that I highlight, I allocate the undecideds. From now on, I'll give you the raw numbers before that allocation. In addition, I'll also give you an estimated actual popular vote based on the individual state analysis. As I explain in the methodology, the Composite Poll avergage of national polls is used to help determine the margin of lead in each state. But state polls are also used. Thus, the Resulting Popular Vote includes not just national polls, but also the effect of state polls. Here are the numbers.
Raw Composite Poll
Bush 43.8 | Kerry 43.8 | Nader 3.7 | Undecided 8.6
Composite Poll (allocating undecided)
Bush 47.77 | Kerry 48.52 | Nader 3.7
Resulting Two-Party Popular Vote (after state by state analysis)
Bush 50.34 | Kerry 49.66
And, just for fun -
Red States - Bush 55.5 | Kerry 44.5
Blue States - Bush 45.5 | Kerry 54.6
Now to this week's numbers.
The States
Margin of Lead
(+Bush | -Kerry)
Battlegrounds in Green (Margin under 6%)
|
Alaska | 28.26% Arizona | 4.72% Arkansas | 2.61% California | -8.26% Colorado | 8.32% Connecticut | -19.39% Delaware | -14.55% District of Columbia | -79.04% Florida | 0.68% Georgia | 11.07% Hawaii | -20.87% Idaho | 38.98% Illinois | -11.23% Indiana | 19.91% Iowa | -3.13% Kansas | 19.38% Kentucky | 8.95% Louisiana | 16.86% Maine | -7.49% Maryland | -9.21% Massachusetts | -23.62% Michigan | -1.53% Minnesota | -4.50% Mississippi | 16.10% Missouri | 3.60% Montana | 20.29% Nebraska | 27.47% Nevada | 5.38% New Hampshire | -2.04% New Jersey | -5.02% New Mexico | -0.52% New York | -17.84% North Carolina | 7.44% North Dakota | 26.75% Ohio | 0.27% Oklahoma | 19.25% Oregon | -0.02% Pennsylvania | -1.71% Rhode Island | -31.63% South Carolina | 14.91% South Dakota | 16.65% Tennessee | 6.93% Texas | 20.05% Utah | 44.34% Vermont | -12.66% Virginia | 6.75% Washington | -5.89% West Virginia | 4.16% Wisconsin | -3.31% Wyoming | 39.52%
 |
After all the bashing the Rats and their willing accomplises in the press have been doing, this must be a blow to the Kerry bunch.
Bush is very very vulnerable, but Kerry has done absolutely nothing to take the momentum away from Bush. Kerry brings absolutely nothing to the table, he is condescending, unlikable and snobbish.
This election is entirely a referendum on George W. Bush and it is his election to win or Lose -- John kerry has proven that he gives people absolutely no reason to vote for him only an alternative to voting for Bush.
I still maintain that when all is said and done Bush will win by 3-4% and around 300-320 EV.
Rasmussen is coming out with some state polls at 3 Eastern.
Thanks.
I would also expect that Zogby doesn't use all the "votes" he receives, but adjusts them based on making sure he has certain demographics represented that conform to his estimate of how people will vote in that state. Dales has a better discussion of the problems with Zogby Interactive, and has pointed out that recent traditional polls disagree with the ZI results.
I don't use the Zogby Interactive numbers in my analysis.
On Dave Leip's page, he allows users to enter predictions. Basically what I do is take the last three polls of a state and average them out. Right now, Kerry has a 284-254 lead. I'd be interested to see how these polls affect that.
This seems to be the consensus of many people I talk to here in what is arguably a battleground region of a battleground state. Kerry himself is kind of irrelevant at this point. The Rats might as well be running a mannequin as their candidate (which might be an improvement in some ways, at least as far as not flipping off veterans in front of school children is concerned). The election seems to be coming down to a question of whether or not people want Bush out of there. In my state, at least, it's still an open question at this point.
Last night's SD election shows just how bad Zogby screws the pooch in the state totals...
Zogby is making the same mistake Rasmussen made in 2000. Rasmussen used the automatic polling method then and showed Bush winning comfortably. he completely missed the movement that last weekend, when all the traditional polls had it as a nailbiter at the end. Zogby is now doing the same type of polling this time around, and is getting the same skewed results but since Zogby is biased Dem instead of R his results are skewed to sKerry.
Can you give me a quick comparison of last night's SD results v the Zogby numbers?
That is the most worrisome aspect of this -- even here is Alabama where Bush will win in double digits, I have a lot of friends who are saying they wish they had a viable alternative to vote for. Bush is on very thin ice almost completely across the board (except for his core backers), he badly needs something positive to happen for him -- all he needs is to find the one good reason to give people to vote for him again.
ZOgby showed Herseth with a Double Digit lead (14 pts I think) -- final result looks to be less than 3000 votes, maybe 50.4 - 49.6 finish
Thanks much.
Zogby is so obviously weighting his results to the dems.
Zogby is probably still using the old Dem 39% Rep 36% IND 25% formula that pollers have used for years. He hasn't adjusted for the fact that it is now a 39%-39% electorate.
In 2000 Rasmussen adjusted, but he adjusted too far (in addition to using a flawed autmatic polling method) -- I think his numbers were actualy in the 38%-36% range for Republicans.
150 days out, this is pure tail chasing. Don't you just LOVE the precise numbers? Not 47.51 but 47.50 or whatever.
Sure, I love the precise numbers. You can do that when averaging. Here they are to the billionth.
Bush 47.767288814 | Kerry 48.521009807
Amazing what Excel can do, huh? Even help you chase your tail or try to track trends in presidential election polling.
People need to forget that Louisiana is a battleground. Seems I heard that Bush has pulled his ads there, since it appears to be a lock.
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