That is the most worrisome aspect of this -- even here is Alabama where Bush will win in double digits, I have a lot of friends who are saying they wish they had a viable alternative to vote for. Bush is on very thin ice almost completely across the board (except for his core backers), he badly needs something positive to happen for him -- all he needs is to find the one good reason to give people to vote for him again.
It is worrisome. I get the impression that people really need a good reason to vote FOR Bush, otherwise they may pull the lever for Kerry just out of desperation to try something different. And by "reason", I mean it has to be some kind of visceral thing, something they just feel right about doing. I hate to have to say it, but my guess is that many, perhaps the majority, tend to go with feelings rather than dispassionate judgment as to who is the better candidate. It's better to use rational judgment than qualitative "feel", but often if the electorate gets the "sense" that things are going well, they'll re-elect the incumbent. Conversely, if they "feel" that things are not going all that great, either for them personally or the country, they may lash out against current officeholders. The latter is what happened to Bush 41 in '92, the former for Clinton in '96. Bush can pull it out, but unfortunately some of the key components are somewhat out of his hands, the Iraq situation, the economy, and the possibility of another 9/11-style attack happening here.