Posted on 05/24/2004 7:55:38 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
| State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
| Alabama | 95.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Alaska | 93.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Arizona | 67.0 | 10 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 68.0 | 6 | 0 |
| California | 14.0 | 0 | 55 |
| Colorado | 79.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Connecticut | 9.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Delaware | 20.0 | 0 | 3 |
| District of Columbia | 0.5 | 0 | 3 |
| Florida | 58.0 | 27 | 0 |
| Georgia | 93.0 | 15 | 0 |
| Hawaii | 8.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Idaho | 95.0 | 4 | 0 |
| Illinois | 14.0 | 0 | 21 |
| Indiana | 91.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Iowa | 42.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Kansas | 93.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 90.0 | 8 | 0 |
| Louisiana | 80.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Maine | 19.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Maryland | 11.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Massachusetts | 2.0 | 0 | 12 |
| Michigan | 35.0 | 0 | 17 |
| Minnesota | 35.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Mississippi | 95.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Missouri | 63.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Montana | 92.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Nevada | 70.0 | 5 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 55.0 | 4 | 0 |
| New Jersey | 20.0 | 0 | 15 |
| New Mexico | 56.0 | 5 | 0 |
| New York | 7.0 | 0 | 31 |
| North Carolina | 85.0 | 15 | 0 |
| North Dakota | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Ohio | 51.0 | 20 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 95.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Oregon | 44.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Pennsylvania | 50.0 | 21 | 0 |
| Rhode Island | 3.0 | 0 | 4 |
| South Carolina | 90.0 | 8 | 0 |
| South Dakota | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 87.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Texas | 95.0 | 34 | 0 |
| Utah | 95.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Vermont | 4.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Virginia | 83.0 | 13 | 0 |
| Washington | 26.0 | 0 | 11 |
| West Virginia | 64.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 45.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Wyoming | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Totals | 304 | 234 |
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 304 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 234 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 280.33 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
The bid price is 49.0 and the ask price is 53.0. These average to 51.0.
Thus, the tie goes to President Bush.
I like it! Interesting format too.
. . . puts me in mind of the decision the Germans made in locating a blockhouse in the target area of their V2 test range. They decided that they could be as sure as anything that no V2 would go exactly where it was aimed - and put the blockhouse in the center of the target.I'd put the above sentence in the subjunctive mood, myself.
PA and Ohio are big prizes, didnt know they had that many EV's.
I'm sure that you have plenty to do just keeping up with this posting. But...in your spare time (if there is any) you might consider putting together a table showing DATE-BUSH-KERRY that shows the chronological data with the latest data at the top. This would be great since it would allow us to see the trends, if any, at a glance.
Some events over the past couple days have changed these odds in my mind. Homosexual marriage will be on the November ballot for Constitutional change. Governor Holden tried to get the courts to keep it off of the Nov. Ballot, but failed to do so. This ought to turn out the conservative base and boost Bush's chances of Winning Missouri.......and also getting a GOPer into the Governors Mansion.
I would bet that the odds of a Bush win in Missouri are now ~80%
I think Florida is safe for W this year, but if both Ohio and Pennsylvania go to Kerry, he's the next President.
that is an interesting web site .. is it legit ? (it actually pays off on transactions?)
| Date | Prob. Bush Win | Mean EVs | Std. Dev. |
| 01/21 | 96.8% | 341.5 | 41.1 |
| 01/26 | 95.5% | 334.8 | 40.6 |
| 02/02 | 92.2% | 323.8 | 39.7 |
| 02/09 | 83.0% | 307.8 | 40.3 |
| 02/16 | 78.4% | 300.4 | 39.4 |
| 02/23 | 76.2% | 298.2 | 39.6 |
| 03/01 | 74.5% | 295.9 | 39.3 |
| 03/08 | 68.0% | 289.2 | 39.8 |
| 03/15 | 68.0% | 288.8 | 39.0 |
| 03/22 | 68.5% | 289.3 | 38.8 |
| 03/29 | 69.4% | 290.1 | 38.8 |
| 04/05 | 71.2% | 292.3 | 39.1 |
| 04/12 | 70.4% | 290.6 | 38.1 |
| 04/19 | 68.6% | 288.1 | 36.7 |
| 04/26 | 64.9% | 284.5 | 36.3 |
| 05/03 | 66.3% | 285.7 | 36.3 |
| 05/10 | 65.6% | 285.3 | 36.8 |
| 05/17 | 65.2% | 284.8 | 36.6 |
| 05/24 | 59.9% | 280.3 | 37.0 |
I believe that the political futures traders at TradeSports.com factor in everything.
The site is legit and has been in operation since 2002.
| Date | Prob. Bush Win | Mean EVs | Std. Dev. |
| 05/24 | 60.2% | 280.5 | 36.9 |
Thanks jdege!
Congressman Billybob
Why are all Pennsylvania's electoral votes accorded to W, since he is only give a 50% chance of carrying the state?
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