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2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
TradeSports.com ^
| Monday, May 24, 2004
| Momaw Nadon
Posted on 05/24/2004 7:55:38 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
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To: reformedliberal
But my point was that he shows the state as 50/50. So why does he give Bush the electoral votes rather than Kerry?
To: doug9732
It's likely true if Ohio and Pennsylvania go to Kerry, he wins, but not necessary. Dales site is showing a possibility (which seems remote to me) showing Bush winning Michigan but losing Ohio and Pennsylvania and winning the election (under ECB "Classic").
A more likely scenario, IMO, whereby Bush could lose Ohio and Pennsylvania and still win would be to take 2 out of the following 5 states: Oregon, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
42
posted on
05/24/2004 10:42:46 AM PDT
by
TomEwall
To: familyofman
The low job approval numbers have been reflected in Ohio and Pennsylvania dropping. They had been close to 60. If they both slipped, that would make it Bush 263 Kerry 275.
43
posted on
05/24/2004 10:48:36 AM PDT
by
TomEwall
To: Momaw Nadon
Same electoral votes as last week....yet, all I hear from the leftist press is how Bush is going to lose. Interesting.
44
posted on
05/24/2004 11:06:59 AM PDT
by
Recovering_Democrat
(I'm so glad to no longer be associated with the Party of Dependence on Government!)
To: doug9732
Of course if Bush loses Ohio and Penn and wins, say, Washington, Bush wins.
45
posted on
05/24/2004 11:08:37 AM PDT
by
normy
(Just cause you think you can box, doesn't mean you're ready to climb in the ring with Ali.)
To: TomEwall
If Bush loses Ohio and Penn but wins Oregon Bush wins with 270 and that would be painful for the Libs to take.
46
posted on
05/24/2004 11:12:31 AM PDT
by
normy
(Just cause you think you can box, doesn't mean you're ready to climb in the ring with Ali.)
To: SwinneySwitch
You left out prison inmate, felon, ex-felon and the elderly who can't even remember voting drives! You forgot the dead.
47
posted on
05/24/2004 12:21:56 PM PDT
by
sr4402
To: governsleastgovernsbest; reformedliberal
"PA is winner-take-all. There are 2 proportional states. One, IIRC, is Maine and I can't recall the other one. I know the savvy statisticians know which ones, exactly."
Maine and Nebraska both hand out 2 EVs to the candidate who carries the state and 1 EV each for the candidate who carries each congressional district. No state uses proportional representation to hand out EVs.
"But my point was that he shows the state as 50/50. So why does he give Bush the electoral votes rather than Kerry?"
When you average the ask price with the bid price, PA is actually 51/49 in favor of Bush (there's a sentence to that effect right after the scores).
48
posted on
05/24/2004 12:34:12 PM PDT
by
AuH2ORepublican
(Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice, moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue.)
To: AuH2ORepublican
Ah-hah. Thanks for the explanation.
To: sr4402
Sachmo covered the demonrat dead in post #11.
"Get out of your mental hospitals, asylums, and graves to vote drives."
50
posted on
05/24/2004 1:03:23 PM PDT
by
SwinneySwitch
(Remember 9-11 on 11-2 !)
To: Momaw Nadon
Bush will have trouble carrying Ohio and Pennsylvania.
To: AuH2ORepublican
Thanx for the clarification.
So, if it isn't really *proportional*, how did these 2 states end up awarding the extra EV to whomever carries each congressional district?
52
posted on
05/24/2004 1:39:15 PM PDT
by
reformedliberal
(Proud Bush-Cheney04 volunteer)
To: ought-six
If the economy continues its strong rebound over the next several months, I think it's likely Bush will carry Ohio again. Pennsylvania may be a lost cause nowadays.
The states that concern me most are Arizona, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, and of course, good old Florida.
53
posted on
05/24/2004 1:50:53 PM PDT
by
jpl
("You can go to a restaurant in New York City and meet a foreign leader."- John Kerry)
To: Momaw Nadon
Why does this Bush have such poor numbers in Michigain? He's running ahead in the polls there.
Also, I think Minnisota should be higher. I know that 2002 was kinda strange, but it just seems that having newly elected and fairly popular Senator and Gov. should help, arn't the polls here fairly even anyway?
I'm a litle less confedent in West Virginia then this poll is too.
To: zbigreddogz
These aren't polls, it's people who bet on who they think will carry the state. I guess people aren't as bullish re: Bush's chances in MI and MN as you and I are.
55
posted on
05/24/2004 2:30:42 PM PDT
by
AuH2ORepublican
(Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice, moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue.)
To: reformedliberal
"So, if it isn't really *proportional*, how did these 2 states end up awarding the extra EV to whomever carries each congressional district?"
Well, if Nebraska, which has 5 electoral votes, truly handed out EVs on a proportional basis then Kerry would get 1 EV if he got at least 20% of the vote (which he certainly will get) and 2 EVs if he got 40% of the vote (which he probably won't get). But that's not how they do it in NE or anywhere else, so Kerry won't get any EVs in NE unless he carries one of the three congressional districts, which he has a snowball's chance in Hell of doing.
BTW, with a truly proportional system for handing out EVs in every state, Bush would have won in 2000 (if I recall correctly) by 272-263 with 3 EVs for Nader, and even had Gore won the FL recount Bush would have still won 271-264-3 (with winner-takes-all, FL switching from Bush to Gore would have subtracted 25 EVs from Bush and given them to Gore, while with proportional EVs it would go from 13 for Bush and 12 for Gore to 13 for Gore and 12 for Bush).
56
posted on
05/24/2004 2:38:35 PM PDT
by
AuH2ORepublican
(Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice, moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue.)
To: InterceptPoint
57
posted on
05/24/2004 4:15:22 PM PDT
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
Comment #58 Removed by Moderator
Comment #59 Removed by Moderator
To: familyofman
How does this reconcile to all the recent polling data that show GWB with a 42 - 46% approval rating? It's difficult to imagine 305 ECV's with an approval under 50%. Seems to be a disconnect somewhere. Perhaps the political futures traders believe that President Bush's approval rating will be higher on November 2, 2004.
60
posted on
05/24/2004 4:23:04 PM PDT
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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