2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, May 24, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama	95.0	9	0
Alaska	93.0	3	0
Arizona	67.0	10	0
Arkansas	68.0	6	0
California	14.0	0	55
Colorado	79.0	9	0
Connecticut	9.0	0	7
Delaware	20.0	0	3
District of Columbia	0.5	0	3
Florida	58.0	27	0
Georgia	93.0	15	0
Hawaii	8.0	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	14.0	0	21
Indiana	91.0	11	0
Iowa	42.0	0	7
Kansas	93.0	6	0
Kentucky	90.0	8	0
Louisiana	80.0	9	0
Maine	19.0	0	4
Maryland	11.0	0	10
Massachusetts	2.0	0	12
Michigan	35.0	0	17
Minnesota	35.0	0	10
Mississippi	95.0	6	0
Missouri	63.0	11	0
Montana	92.0	3	0
Nebraska	96.0	5	0
Nevada	70.0	5	0
New Hampshire	55.0	4	0
New Jersey	20.0	0	15
New Mexico	56.0	5	0
New York	7.0	0	31
North Carolina	85.0	15	0
North Dakota	95.0	3	0
Ohio	51.0	20	0
Oklahoma	95.0	7	0
Oregon	44.0	0	7
Pennsylvania	50.0	21	0
Rhode Island	3.0	0	4
South Carolina	90.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	87.0	11	0
Texas	95.0	34	0
Utah	95.0	5	0
Vermont	4.0	0	3
Virginia	83.0	13	0
Washington	26.0	0	11
West Virginia	64.0	5	0
Wisconsin	45.0	0	10
Wyoming	95.0	3	0
Totals		304	234

[governsleastgovernsbest]

But my point was that he shows the state as 50/50. So why does he give Bush the electoral votes rather than Kerry?

[TomEwall]

It's likely true if Ohio and Pennsylvania go to Kerry, he wins, but not necessary. Dales site is showing a possibility (which seems remote to me) showing Bush winning Michigan but losing Ohio and Pennsylvania and winning the election (under ECB "Classic").

A more likely scenario, IMO, whereby Bush could lose Ohio and Pennsylvania and still win would be to take 2 out of the following 5 states: Oregon, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin.

[TomEwall]

The low job approval numbers have been reflected in Ohio and Pennsylvania dropping. They had been close to 60. If they both slipped, that would make it Bush 263 Kerry 275.

[Recovering_Democrat]

Same electoral votes as last week....yet, all I hear from the leftist press is how Bush is going to lose. Interesting.

[normy]

Of course if Bush loses Ohio and Penn and wins, say, Washington, Bush wins.

[normy]

If Bush loses Ohio and Penn but wins Oregon Bush wins with 270 and that would be painful for the Libs to take.

[sr4402]

You left out prison inmate, felon, ex-felon and the elderly who can't even remember voting drives!

You forgot the dead.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"PA is winner-take-all. There are 2 proportional states. One, IIRC, is Maine and I can't recall the other one. I know the savvy statisticians know which ones, exactly."

---

Maine and Nebraska both hand out 2 EVs to the candidate who carries the state and 1 EV each for the candidate who carries each congressional district. No state uses proportional representation to hand out EVs.


"But my point was that he shows the state as 50/50. So why does he give Bush the electoral votes rather than Kerry?"

---

When you average the ask price with the bid price, PA is actually 51/49 in favor of Bush (there's a sentence to that effect right after the scores).

[governsleastgovernsbest]

Ah-hah. Thanks for the explanation.

[SwinneySwitch]

Sachmo covered the demonrat dead in post #11.

"Get out of your mental hospitals, asylums, and graves to vote drives."

[ought-six]

Bush will have trouble carrying Ohio and Pennsylvania.

[reformedliberal]

Thanx for the clarification.

So, if it isn't really *proportional*, how did these 2 states end up awarding the extra EV to whomever carries each congressional district?

[jpl]

If the economy continues its strong rebound over the next several months, I think it's likely Bush will carry Ohio again. Pennsylvania may be a lost cause nowadays.

The states that concern me most are Arizona, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, and of course, good old Florida.

[zbigreddogz]

Why does this Bush have such poor numbers in Michigain? He's running ahead in the polls there.

Also, I think Minnisota should be higher. I know that 2002 was kinda strange, but it just seems that having newly elected and fairly popular Senator and Gov. should help, arn't the polls here fairly even anyway?

I'm a litle less confedent in West Virginia then this poll is too.

[AuH2ORepublican]

These aren't polls, it's people who bet on who they think will carry the state. I guess people aren't as bullish re: Bush's chances in MI and MN as you and I are.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"So, if it isn't really *proportional*, how did these 2 states end up awarding the extra EV to whomever carries each congressional district?"

---

Well, if Nebraska, which has 5 electoral votes, truly handed out EVs on a proportional basis then Kerry would get 1 EV if he got at least 20% of the vote (which he certainly will get) and 2 EVs if he got 40% of the vote (which he probably won't get). But that's not how they do it in NE or anywhere else, so Kerry won't get any EVs in NE unless he carries one of the three congressional districts, which he has a snowball's chance in Hell of doing.

BTW, with a truly proportional system for handing out EVs in every state, Bush would have won in 2000 (if I recall correctly) by 272-263 with 3 EVs for Nader, and even had Gore won the FL recount Bush would have still won 271-264-3 (with winner-takes-all, FL switching from Bush to Gore would have subtracted 25 EVs from Bush and given them to Gore, while with proportional EVs it would go from 13 for Bush and 12 for Gore to 13 for Gore and 12 for Bush).

[Momaw Nadon]

[Momaw Nadon]

How does this reconcile to all the recent polling data that show GWB with a 42 - 46% approval rating? It's difficult to imagine 305 ECV's with an approval under 50%. Seems to be a disconnect somewhere.

Perhaps the political futures traders believe that President Bush's approval rating will be higher on November 2, 2004.