According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 304 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 234 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 280.33 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
The bid price is 49.0 and the ask price is 53.0. These average to 51.0.
Thus, the tie goes to President Bush.
I like it! Interesting format too.
. . . puts me in mind of the decision the Germans made in locating a blockhouse in the target area of their V2 test range. They decided that they could be as sure as anything that no V2 would go exactly where it was aimed - and put the blockhouse in the center of the target.I'd put the above sentence in the subjunctive mood, myself.
Some events over the past couple days have changed these odds in my mind. Homosexual marriage will be on the November ballot for Constitutional change. Governor Holden tried to get the courts to keep it off of the Nov. Ballot, but failed to do so. This ought to turn out the conservative base and boost Bush's chances of Winning Missouri.......and also getting a GOPer into the Governors Mansion.
I would bet that the odds of a Bush win in Missouri are now ~80%
I think Florida is safe for W this year, but if both Ohio and Pennsylvania go to Kerry, he's the next President.
that is an interesting web site .. is it legit ? (it actually pays off on transactions?)
| Date | Prob. Bush Win | Mean EVs | Std. Dev. |
| 01/21 | 96.8% | 341.5 | 41.1 |
| 01/26 | 95.5% | 334.8 | 40.6 |
| 02/02 | 92.2% | 323.8 | 39.7 |
| 02/09 | 83.0% | 307.8 | 40.3 |
| 02/16 | 78.4% | 300.4 | 39.4 |
| 02/23 | 76.2% | 298.2 | 39.6 |
| 03/01 | 74.5% | 295.9 | 39.3 |
| 03/08 | 68.0% | 289.2 | 39.8 |
| 03/15 | 68.0% | 288.8 | 39.0 |
| 03/22 | 68.5% | 289.3 | 38.8 |
| 03/29 | 69.4% | 290.1 | 38.8 |
| 04/05 | 71.2% | 292.3 | 39.1 |
| 04/12 | 70.4% | 290.6 | 38.1 |
| 04/19 | 68.6% | 288.1 | 36.7 |
| 04/26 | 64.9% | 284.5 | 36.3 |
| 05/03 | 66.3% | 285.7 | 36.3 |
| 05/10 | 65.6% | 285.3 | 36.8 |
| 05/17 | 65.2% | 284.8 | 36.6 |
| 05/24 | 59.9% | 280.3 | 37.0 |
Why are all Pennsylvania's electoral votes accorded to W, since he is only give a 50% chance of carrying the state?
It would be interesting for me to have a travelogue for Bush & skerry. It may help give a sense of what the internal polls are saying. Does anyone know of a site that tracks their daily campaign trips?
btt
Nebraska 96.0 Remember Bubba in his last days went to Nebraska - the only state he hadn't been in. Guess he didn't pollute it in any fashion. Don't think that there are not a few commies undercover there & how that state elects Hagel is very disturbing.
Bush will have trouble carrying Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Why does this Bush have such poor numbers in Michigain? He's running ahead in the polls there.
Also, I think Minnisota should be higher. I know that 2002 was kinda strange, but it just seems that having newly elected and fairly popular Senator and Gov. should help, arn't the polls here fairly even anyway?
I'm a litle less confedent in West Virginia then this poll is too.
note PA...at 50%