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2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
TradeSports.com ^
| Monday, March 1, 2004
| Momaw Nadon
Posted on 03/01/2004 1:46:56 PM PST by Momaw Nadon
State |
% Chance of Bush Winning |
Bush Electoral Votes |
Dem Electoral Votes |
Alabama |
95.0 |
9 |
0 |
Alaska |
94.0 |
3 |
0 |
Arizona |
73.0 |
10 |
0 |
Arkansas |
70.0 |
6 |
0 |
California |
17.6 |
0 |
55 |
Colorado |
80.0 |
9 |
0 |
Connecticut |
20.0 |
0 |
7 |
Delaware |
35.0 |
0 |
3 |
District of Columbia |
2.0 |
0 |
3 |
Florida |
68.0 |
27 |
0 |
Georgia |
90.0 |
15 |
0 |
Hawaii |
13.0 |
0 |
4 |
Idaho |
95.0 |
4 |
0 |
Illinois |
23.0 |
0 |
21 |
Indiana |
87.0 |
11 |
0 |
Iowa |
43.0 |
0 |
7 |
Kansas |
91.5 |
6 |
0 |
Kentucky |
88.0 |
8 |
0 |
Louisiana |
80.0 |
9 |
0 |
Maine |
39.0 |
0 |
4 |
Maryland |
17.5 |
0 |
10 |
Massachusetts |
4.0 |
0 |
12 |
Michigan |
47.0 |
0 |
17 |
Minnesota |
41.0 |
0 |
10 |
Mississippi |
94.0 |
6 |
0 |
Missouri |
65.0 |
11 |
0 |
Montana |
91.0 |
3 |
0 |
Nebraska |
94.0 |
5 |
0 |
Nevada |
65.0 |
5 |
0 |
New Hampshire |
58.0 |
4 |
0 |
New Jersey |
16.0 |
0 |
15 |
New Mexico |
58.0 |
5 |
0 |
New York |
15.0 |
0 |
31 |
North Carolina |
85.0 |
15 |
0 |
North Dakota |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
Ohio |
65.0 |
20 |
0 |
Oklahoma |
93.0 |
7 |
0 |
Oregon |
39.0 |
0 |
7 |
Pennsylvania |
49.0 |
0 |
21 |
Rhode Island |
5.0 |
0 |
4 |
South Carolina |
87.0 |
8 |
0 |
South Dakota |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
Tennessee |
85.0 |
11 |
0 |
Texas |
93.0 |
34 |
0 |
Utah |
95.0 |
5 |
0 |
Vermont |
7.0 |
0 |
3 |
Virginia |
85.0 |
13 |
0 |
Washington |
35.0 |
0 |
11 |
West Virginia |
47.0 |
0 |
5 |
Wisconsin |
46.0 |
0 |
10 |
Wyoming |
95.0 |
3 |
0 |
Totals |
|
278 |
260 |
TOPICS: Extended News; Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Unclassified; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2004; bush; election; electionpresident; electoral; electoralvote; electoralvotes; georgebush; georgewbush; gwb2004; president; presidentbush; presidential; vote; votes
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I went to
TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 278 Electoral Votes and the Democratic candidate would receive 260 Electoral Votes.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
To: Momaw Nadon
2
posted on
03/01/2004 1:47:34 PM PST
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: Momaw Nadon
bobo thinks that bush will win in a landslide. More in the figures of Nixon versus McGovern.
blessings, Bobo
3
posted on
03/01/2004 1:49:13 PM PST
by
bobo1
To: Momaw Nadon
I've got a feeling about Pennsylvania. Tom Ridge was a very popular governor there.
4
posted on
03/01/2004 1:51:46 PM PST
by
CholeraJoe
(Pararescue: Don't call 911, call 243.0. I'll rappel down headfirst if I have to.)
To: bobo1
If these are accurate then Bobo is right. The tighest races are all in Kerry's column. Big ones too ... Michigan, Pennsylvania ...
5
posted on
03/01/2004 1:53:02 PM PST
by
The G Man
(John Kerry? America just can't afford a 9/10 President in a 9/11 world. Vote Bush-Cheney '04.)
To: Momaw Nadon
Bush's weakest states:
FL-68%
MO-65
NV-65
OH-65
NH-58
Kerry's weakest states:
DE-65
WA-65
OR-61
ME-61
MN-59
IA-57
WI-54
MI-53
WV-53
PA-51
To: Momaw Nadon
Why does Texas rank below a few states with only a 93% rate at the moment?
I'll bet a year's salary plus a few non-vital organs that John Kerry does not win Texas...lol.
To: Momaw Nadon
Vary interesting and similar to the results that Dales has projected as of yesterday based on state by state polling:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1088011/posts To me it is comfortable that both reasonable methods come to similar conclussion TODAY. I emphasize the today because it could turn out to be a landslide one way or the other even if it is close today.
8
posted on
03/01/2004 1:54:22 PM PST
by
JLS
To: Dales; Neets
Ping!
9
posted on
03/01/2004 1:54:44 PM PST
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: LincolnLover
Why does Texas rank below a few states with only a 93% rate at the moment?
Illegals?
10
posted on
03/01/2004 1:56:58 PM PST
by
Momaw Nadon
(Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
To: Diddle E. Squat
New Mexico at 58% is tied as Bush's weakest. Regardless, these are great numbers and track with Zogby's state by state numbers from a week or 2 ago.
11
posted on
03/01/2004 1:57:13 PM PST
by
The G Man
(John Kerry? America just can't afford a 9/10 President in a 9/11 world. Vote Bush-Cheney '04.)
To: Diddle E. Squat
What this really means is that Kerry would have to pick off Florida *or* Missouri *or* New Hampshire and Nevada *and* win every state he's already projected to win in order to top Bush.
So the question is "where will the Democrat Vote Fraud Machine (tm) sink all their marbles? My bet is Florida or Missouri. Particularly Missouri if Gephardt gets the Veep nod. A Boss Pendergast revisited.
I don't think they're going to test Ohio which has too many Republicans in key positions to pull off the heist.
12
posted on
03/01/2004 2:00:09 PM PST
by
Tall_Texan
((Tagline withheld pending notification of next of kin))
To: LincolnLover
13
posted on
03/01/2004 2:02:38 PM PST
by
So Cal Rocket
(If consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds, John F. Kerry’s mind must be freaking enormous)
To: CholeraJoe
I've got a feeling about Pennsylvania. So do I. Not something I've thought about a whole lot, just a gut feeling.
Just imagine the faces at CNN if PA went for Bush in an upset.
But honestly, what Bush has to aim for is, in addition to holding just about all of "his" states, he has to go for the Florida-Ohio-Pennsylvania trifecta. If he has those states early on election night, he's got it in the bag.
14
posted on
03/01/2004 2:02:50 PM PST
by
GiveEmDubya
(John Kerry has more baggage than a Samsonite warehouse)
To: Tall_Texan
They could try it in Michigan this year. there were clearly problems with the caucus, but little or no intrest if fixing the problem.
Seems to me that knowing theres a problem and refusing to fix it can be a very effective crisis maker in the future.
15
posted on
03/01/2004 2:02:52 PM PST
by
cripplecreek
(you win wars by making the other dumb SOB die for his country)
To: Momaw Nadon
Nebraska 94.0 -- Bush
I love my state
16
posted on
03/01/2004 2:04:17 PM PST
by
Phisher
To: bobo1
Methinks you are right. Although I believe the popular vote will be fairly close, the electoral vote will fall significantly in the W column.
17
posted on
03/01/2004 2:04:28 PM PST
by
rj45mis
To: Momaw Nadon
"Why does Texas rank below a few states with only a 93% rate at the moment?
Illegals?"
+ Immorals and Immortals.
To: cripplecreek
Except that this scenario already cedes Michigan to Kerry. To play the game, you have to pick off states Bush is favored to win. Otherwise, they could just steal Illinois (again) and be done with it.
19
posted on
03/01/2004 2:05:08 PM PST
by
Tall_Texan
((Tagline withheld pending notification of next of kin))
To: Tall_Texan
"I don't think they're going to test Ohio which has too many Republicans in key positions to pull off the heist."
The Ohio gop are mostly RINO.
I'm an Ohioan and a good percentage of the population here are P.O.'d over the massive tax increases we've had shoved down our throats.
Ohio could very well be THE battleground state.
20
posted on
03/01/2004 2:06:10 PM PST
by
WhiteGuy
(Congress shall make no law... abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press...)
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