2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, March 1, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 278 Electoral Votes and the Democratic candidate would receive 260 Electoral Votes.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[bobo1]

bobo thinks that bush will win in a landslide. More in the figures of Nixon versus McGovern.

blessings, Bobo

[CholeraJoe]

I've got a feeling about Pennsylvania. Tom Ridge was a very popular governor there.

[The G Man]

If these are accurate then Bobo is right. The tighest races are all in Kerry's column. Big ones too ... Michigan, Pennsylvania ...

[Diddle E. Squat]

Bush's weakest states:

FL-68%
MO-65
NV-65
OH-65
NH-58

Kerry's weakest states:

DE-65
WA-65
OR-61
ME-61
MN-59
IA-57
WI-54
MI-53
WV-53
PA-51

[LincolnLover]

Why does Texas rank below a few states with only a 93% rate at the moment?

I'll bet a year's salary plus a few non-vital organs that John Kerry does not win Texas...lol.

[JLS]

Vary interesting and similar to the results that Dales has projected as of yesterday based on state by state polling:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1088011/posts

To me it is comfortable that both reasonable methods come to similar conclussion TODAY. I emphasize the today because it could turn out to be a landslide one way or the other even if it is close today.

[Momaw Nadon]

Ping!

[Momaw Nadon]

Why does Texas rank below a few states with only a 93% rate at the moment?

Illegals?

[The G Man]

New Mexico at 58% is tied as Bush's weakest. Regardless, these are great numbers and track with Zogby's state by state numbers from a week or 2 ago.

[Tall_Texan]

What this really means is that Kerry would have to pick off Florida *or* Missouri *or* New Hampshire and Nevada *and* win every state he's already projected to win in order to top Bush.

So the question is "where will the Democrat Vote Fraud Machine (tm) sink all their marbles? My bet is Florida or Missouri. Particularly Missouri if Gephardt gets the Veep nod. A Boss Pendergast revisited.

I don't think they're going to test Ohio which has too many Republicans in key positions to pull off the heist.

[So Cal Rocket]

You can do just that:

http://www.tradesports.com

[GiveEmDubya]

I've got a feeling about Pennsylvania.

So do I. Not something I've thought about a whole lot, just a gut feeling.

Just imagine the faces at CNN if PA went for Bush in an upset.

But honestly, what Bush has to aim for is, in addition to holding just about all of "his" states, he has to go for the Florida-Ohio-Pennsylvania trifecta. If he has those states early on election night, he's got it in the bag.

[cripplecreek]

They could try it in Michigan this year. there were clearly problems with the caucus, but little or no intrest if fixing the problem.

Seems to me that knowing theres a problem and refusing to fix it can be a very effective crisis maker in the future.

[Phisher]

Nebraska 94.0 -- Bush

I love my state

[rj45mis]

Methinks you are right. Although I believe the popular vote will be fairly close, the electoral vote will fall significantly in the W column.

[WestTexasWend]

"Why does Texas rank below a few states with only a 93% rate at the moment?

Illegals?"

+ Immorals and Immortals.

[Tall_Texan]

Except that this scenario already cedes Michigan to Kerry. To play the game, you have to pick off states Bush is favored to win. Otherwise, they could just steal Illinois (again) and be done with it.

[WhiteGuy]

"I don't think they're going to test Ohio which has too many Republicans in key positions to pull off the heist."


The Ohio gop are mostly RINO.

I'm an Ohioan and a good percentage of the population here are P.O.'d over the massive tax increases we've had shoved down our throats.

Ohio could very well be THE battleground state.