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2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, March 1, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

Posted on 03/01/2004 1:46:56 PM PST by Momaw Nadon

State % Chance of Bush Winning Bush Electoral Votes Dem Electoral Votes
Alabama 95.0 9 0
Alaska 94.0 3 0
Arizona 73.0 10 0
Arkansas 70.0 6 0
California 17.6 0 55
Colorado 80.0 9 0
Connecticut 20.0 0 7
Delaware 35.0 0 3
District of Columbia 2.0 0 3
Florida 68.0 27 0
Georgia 90.0 15 0
Hawaii 13.0 0 4
Idaho 95.0 4 0
Illinois 23.0 0 21
Indiana 87.0 11 0
Iowa 43.0 0 7
Kansas 91.5 6 0
Kentucky 88.0 8 0
Louisiana 80.0 9 0
Maine 39.0 0 4
Maryland 17.5 0 10
Massachusetts 4.0 0 12
Michigan 47.0 0 17
Minnesota 41.0 0 10
Mississippi 94.0 6 0
Missouri 65.0 11 0
Montana 91.0 3 0
Nebraska 94.0 5 0
Nevada 65.0 5 0
New Hampshire 58.0 4 0
New Jersey 16.0 0 15
New Mexico 58.0 5 0
New York 15.0 0 31
North Carolina 85.0 15 0
North Dakota 95.0 3 0
Ohio 65.0 20 0
Oklahoma 93.0 7 0
Oregon 39.0 0 7
Pennsylvania 49.0 0 21
Rhode Island 5.0 0 4
South Carolina 87.0 8 0
South Dakota 95.0 3 0
Tennessee 85.0 11 0
Texas 93.0 34 0
Utah 95.0 5 0
Vermont 7.0 0 3
Virginia 85.0 13 0
Washington 35.0 0 11
West Virginia 47.0 0 5
Wisconsin 46.0 0 10
Wyoming 95.0 3 0
Totals   278 260


TOPICS: Extended News; Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Unclassified; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2004; bush; election; electionpresident; electoral; electoralvote; electoralvotes; georgebush; georgewbush; gwb2004; president; presidentbush; presidential; vote; votes
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I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 278 Electoral Votes and the Democratic candidate would receive 260 Electoral Votes.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

1 posted on 03/01/2004 1:46:57 PM PST by Momaw Nadon
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To: Momaw Nadon
Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

2 posted on 03/01/2004 1:47:34 PM PST by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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To: Momaw Nadon
bobo thinks that bush will win in a landslide. More in the figures of Nixon versus McGovern.

blessings, Bobo
3 posted on 03/01/2004 1:49:13 PM PST by bobo1
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To: Momaw Nadon
I've got a feeling about Pennsylvania. Tom Ridge was a very popular governor there.
4 posted on 03/01/2004 1:51:46 PM PST by CholeraJoe (Pararescue: Don't call 911, call 243.0. I'll rappel down headfirst if I have to.)
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To: bobo1
If these are accurate then Bobo is right. The tighest races are all in Kerry's column. Big ones too ... Michigan, Pennsylvania ...
5 posted on 03/01/2004 1:53:02 PM PST by The G Man (John Kerry? America just can't afford a 9/10 President in a 9/11 world. Vote Bush-Cheney '04.)
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To: Momaw Nadon
Bush's weakest states:

FL-68%
MO-65
NV-65
OH-65
NH-58

Kerry's weakest states:

DE-65
WA-65
OR-61
ME-61
MN-59
IA-57
WI-54
MI-53
WV-53
PA-51

6 posted on 03/01/2004 1:53:11 PM PST by Diddle E. Squat
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To: Momaw Nadon
Why does Texas rank below a few states with only a 93% rate at the moment?

I'll bet a year's salary plus a few non-vital organs that John Kerry does not win Texas...lol.
7 posted on 03/01/2004 1:54:16 PM PST by LincolnLover
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To: Momaw Nadon
Vary interesting and similar to the results that Dales has projected as of yesterday based on state by state polling:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1088011/posts

To me it is comfortable that both reasonable methods come to similar conclussion TODAY. I emphasize the today because it could turn out to be a landslide one way or the other even if it is close today.
8 posted on 03/01/2004 1:54:22 PM PST by JLS
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To: Dales; Neets
Ping!
9 posted on 03/01/2004 1:54:44 PM PST by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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To: LincolnLover
Why does Texas rank below a few states with only a 93% rate at the moment?


Illegals?

10 posted on 03/01/2004 1:56:58 PM PST by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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To: Diddle E. Squat
New Mexico at 58% is tied as Bush's weakest. Regardless, these are great numbers and track with Zogby's state by state numbers from a week or 2 ago.
11 posted on 03/01/2004 1:57:13 PM PST by The G Man (John Kerry? America just can't afford a 9/10 President in a 9/11 world. Vote Bush-Cheney '04.)
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To: Diddle E. Squat
What this really means is that Kerry would have to pick off Florida *or* Missouri *or* New Hampshire and Nevada *and* win every state he's already projected to win in order to top Bush.

So the question is "where will the Democrat Vote Fraud Machine (tm) sink all their marbles? My bet is Florida or Missouri. Particularly Missouri if Gephardt gets the Veep nod. A Boss Pendergast revisited.

I don't think they're going to test Ohio which has too many Republicans in key positions to pull off the heist.
12 posted on 03/01/2004 2:00:09 PM PST by Tall_Texan ((Tagline withheld pending notification of next of kin))
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To: LincolnLover
You can do just that:

http://www.tradesports.com
13 posted on 03/01/2004 2:02:38 PM PST by So Cal Rocket (If consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds, John F. Kerry’s mind must be freaking enormous)
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To: CholeraJoe
I've got a feeling about Pennsylvania.

So do I. Not something I've thought about a whole lot, just a gut feeling.

Just imagine the faces at CNN if PA went for Bush in an upset.

But honestly, what Bush has to aim for is, in addition to holding just about all of "his" states, he has to go for the Florida-Ohio-Pennsylvania trifecta. If he has those states early on election night, he's got it in the bag.

14 posted on 03/01/2004 2:02:50 PM PST by GiveEmDubya (John Kerry has more baggage than a Samsonite warehouse)
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To: Tall_Texan
They could try it in Michigan this year. there were clearly problems with the caucus, but little or no intrest if fixing the problem.

Seems to me that knowing theres a problem and refusing to fix it can be a very effective crisis maker in the future.
15 posted on 03/01/2004 2:02:52 PM PST by cripplecreek (you win wars by making the other dumb SOB die for his country)
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To: Momaw Nadon
Nebraska 94.0 -- Bush

I love my state
16 posted on 03/01/2004 2:04:17 PM PST by Phisher
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To: bobo1
Methinks you are right. Although I believe the popular vote will be fairly close, the electoral vote will fall significantly in the W column.
17 posted on 03/01/2004 2:04:28 PM PST by rj45mis
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To: Momaw Nadon
"Why does Texas rank below a few states with only a 93% rate at the moment?

Illegals?"

+ Immorals and Immortals.
18 posted on 03/01/2004 2:04:46 PM PST by WestTexasWend
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To: cripplecreek
Except that this scenario already cedes Michigan to Kerry. To play the game, you have to pick off states Bush is favored to win. Otherwise, they could just steal Illinois (again) and be done with it.
19 posted on 03/01/2004 2:05:08 PM PST by Tall_Texan ((Tagline withheld pending notification of next of kin))
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To: Tall_Texan
"I don't think they're going to test Ohio which has too many Republicans in key positions to pull off the heist."


The Ohio gop are mostly RINO.

I'm an Ohioan and a good percentage of the population here are P.O.'d over the massive tax increases we've had shoved down our throats.

Ohio could very well be THE battleground state.
20 posted on 03/01/2004 2:06:10 PM PST by WhiteGuy (Congress shall make no law... abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press...)
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