2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, March 1, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[alwaysconservative]

Call me a cock-eyed optimist, but I think President Bush will gain Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and even Iowa this time around. He only lost NM by a few hundred reservation votes, so that one is probably a flip from blue (last time) to red. I worry about Ohio, WV, and Michigan, though, no matter what the numbers say.

[NYS_Eric]

What a great site. Thanks for posting this info, which I'm bookmarking.

Honestly, this is probably about the most accurate "polling" you're going to see anywhere in 2004. When money is on the line, accuracy (in my opinion) tends to rise.

I like how Florida looks from here. I'm surprised Minnesota is not closer. This will be fun to track in future weeks.

[donozark]

In past years, you would be correct about St.Louis. 25K "dual residents," polls staying open longer in Democrat precincts, dead voters, etc.etc. However, in 2002 election, AG Ashcroft and Sec. of State Matt Blunt had "observers" present. Read:FEC/FBI/MO HP,etc. They let it be known beforehand that said "observers" would be present. Very little fraud occured. Such will be the case again in November...

Also, Dems have been strangled by the CCW issue as well as our feckless Governors' withholding of dollars for education. His pandering to union bosses, i.e. forcing ALL state employees to pay union dues whether they are in a union or not. And giving bigger raises to union members than non-union members (state employees). I put Missouri in Republican basket. It went for GWB last time and will again. If not? All is lost as Missouri usually picks the winner in Pres. elections.

[kidd]

Kerry may pick a PA veep, just to make sure that he wins the state.

[So Cal Rocket]

While there is no change in the total Electoral Votes at the bottom line from last week, in 5 out of the 6 states that had their percentages change from last week, Bush is weaker:

Bush numbers down:
Arizona - 75 to 73
California - 18 to 17.6
Illinois - 30 to 23
Nebraska - 95 to 94
Wisconsin - 49 to 46

Bush numbers up:
Iowa - 42 to 43

[Calvin Coolidge]

Yes, but not as popular as the current Democrat governor, Rendell. And as a product of the Philly machine, Ed knows how to guarantee over 100% turnout in the right precincts. His big tax hike for next year hasn't really hit home yet, and he is getting more play for being pro-environment than pro-taxes.

Pennsylvania is also a rust-belt state that is upset over the loss of manufacturing jobs over the last few years. Barring a big employment turn-around in that sector(which may happen, see todays good news in that area), the state is probably leaning more against Bush than it was in 2000.

[jcb8199]

Hopefully this is a prophecy, not a poll...

[freedom44]

ping

[AmishDude]

Rendell polls terribly right now. He knows how to operate the Philly political machine, but the only way he could help Kerry is to endorse Bush.

[SoftballMominVA]

Ahhhh, VA is only 85%????? Son of a gun.

[Fiddlstix]

Bump

[AntiKev]

Off Topic: Love the tagline :P. Are you guys on 121.5 too?

[Calvin Coolidge]

I haven't seen any recent polls on him, but our Philly suburb treats him like royalty. Maybe the rest of the state isn't so enamored, however.

I still think the state is a tough nut for GWB to crack. Environment and Manufacturing Employment are big issues here. How the steelworkers come down will be critical: will his unfortunate pandering to them with protective tariffs early in his term win any points even after his recent turn-around on the issue? And will the effects of Rendell's hike in the state income tax rate contrast poorly with GWB's tax cutting record?

[SamAdams76]

So the question is "where will the Democrat Vote Fraud Machine (tm) sink all their marbles? My bet is Florida or Missouri. Particularly Missouri if Gephardt gets the Veep nod.

Take my word on this. Gephardt will not be Kerry's running mate. Gephardt's political career is over and he offers nothing to the ticket. He barely made a ripple in Iowa this year and I don't think he could deliver Missouri even if he was on the ticket.

[NYS_Eric]

FYI...

[MissAmericanPie]

All of the Western part of the State and the Southern from Austin to the border is heavy illegals and heavy liberals. Houston is always iffy. What has carried Texas for the Repubs has been the DFW area, now with a 500 to 700% increase in illegals, not to mention immigrants from all over the world, who knows how much longer Republicans can carry Texas?

[only1percent]

The main virtual and actual political wager sites were woefully off in late 2003 with regard to the Democratic primaries -- they basically just recapitulated conventional wisdom.

I find these tallies similarly suspect. The odds making at the extremes is arbitrary and useless (Bush's 2% chance of carrying DC and Kerry's 5% chance of carrying Utah are totally meaningless, as an example).

The center of the odds seem pretty hinky, too -- New Mexico's electorate will be 5%+ more Latino than it was in 2000 -- there's no basis for a 58% likelihood it will go Bush when Gore and Bush split it evenly in 2000. Minnesota and Iowa are each much more likely pick ups than Michigan or Wisconsin (both of which have a larger hard core of liberal and minority voters). Oregon and Washington have large, tough, and experienced conservative get-out-the-vote machines, which are much more likely to pull off an upset than are the weak Maine and Pennsylvania organizations. The Bush confidence levels in Ohio and Missouri are far too high (particularly with the possibility of a Gephardt nomination), and too low in Florida (which Democratic strategists have basically written off.)

[xzins]

A swing state would be anything within 15 points of 50/50.

Let's hope that the President puts on a great campaign.

[bondjamesbond]

Multiplying each state's EV by the probability for each candidate and summing gives the following result

Bush 296 EVs
Kerry 242 EVs

Not that any of this stuff is relevant, but maintaining the probability data seems like it would yeild a more meaningful result.

[CholeraJoe]

I've been retired for nearly 14 years. I'm certain that the helos had that frequency but 243.0 was the main one we used in the USAF. Every now and then someone would turn their survival radio on accidentally and it would be constantly pinging until we figured out where the source was.