Skip to comments.Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Two
Posted on 02/19/2004 1:56:12 PM PST by Dales
Due to popular demand, I am going to revive my poll tracking and analysis that I did during the 2000 election season. I will be starting things a bit differently this year. Instead of starting off with a comprehensive overview of the entire nation, I am going to start by looking at five states at a time. For this second installment, the random state generator presented me with Colorado, Georgia, North Carolina, Montana, Massachusetts.
Please note that while this batch of states was pretty "Bush friendly", the grouping was determined completely at random using a random number generator.
|Electoral Votes: 9|
Background: Colorado is generally considered to be winnable for the Democrats, but historically this has proven to be a solid GOP bastion. Only three times since Franklin Delano Roosevelt was President has a Democrat carried this state (Truman, Johnson, and Clinton against Bush- with a big thanks to Perot taking 23% of the tally).
|9/8-10/03||Colorado Democratic Party||NA||RV||4%||Bush||42%||Unnamed Democrat||35%|
|12/15-16/03||Public Opinion Strategies||NA||LV||4.9%||Bush||46%||Unnamed Democrat||36%|
Punditry: Colorado may end up being a single digit margin, but the results will likely never be in doubt. Strong Advantage Bush.
|Electoral Votes: 15|
Background: Wallace and Goldwater won here. The only times the Democrats have carried this state since 1960 have been when native son Jimmy Carter was topping the ticket (twice) and when fellow southerner Bill Clinton beat that Yankee George H.W. Bush by a point, while Texan H. Ross Perot siphoned off 13% of the vote. This is not a friendly state for Democrats in Presidential elections, as even Bob Dole won here over Clinton despite Perot taking 7%.
|10/15/03||Zogby||Link||400 LV||4.5%||Bush||52%||Unnamed Democrat||39%|
|10/23/03||Shapiro Research Group||Link||RV||4.5%||Bush||49%||Unnamed Democrat||41%|
|2/4/04||Shapiro Research Group||NA||RV||4.5%||Bush||47%||Unnamed Democrat||44%
Punditry: Take the Shapiro poll with a grain of salt, as they are a Democrat polling firm. I could call this as a strong advantage given the state's history, but on the outside chance that Edwards pulls out the Democrat nomination, I will take the conservative route and designate this race (for now) as Leaning Bush.
|Electoral Votes: 15|
Background: Since Lyndon Johnson's win here, only once have the Democrats taken Tar Heel electors. That's a bit deceptive, however, as many times it was extremely close. Carter lost to Reagan here by only two points in that nationwide blowout. Clinton lost two elections by a combined total of 5%. Yet the Clinton losses are also deceptive, in that the margins would have been considerably larger without Perot and his charts. Simply stated, like much of the south North Carolina votes Republican for President, although a southerner atop the ticket can make things interesting; not always though, as Al Gore demonstrated.
|11/25/03||Survey USA||Link||563 RV||4.2%||Bush||53%||Kerry||39%|
|11/25/03||Survey USA||Link||563 RV||4.2%||Bush||52%||Edwards||45%
Punditry: Obviously, this state is more interesting if Edwards somehow comes from behind to take down Kerry. Polls consistently show Bush leading all comers here by around 10-15%, and the state leans his way. Leaning Bush.
|Electoral Votes: 3|
Background: Big Sky will occasionally vote for a Democrat, but generally not for any non-Montana Democrats. For example, the Governor's race may end up being very competitive while the Presidential race is not. Since the Goldwater debacle, only Bill Clinton has won here, during his first campaign, and then only with Ross Perot taking over a quarter of the votes.
Punditry: An interesting thing about the wording of the reporting for that poll- the newspaper phrased it that 52% would vote for Bush, while 27% would definitely vote against him and another 18% would consider voting for a Democrat. That latter phrasing is an attempt to make things appear closer than they really are; a more accurate way of describing those 18% would be "undecided". Another interesting thing is that this poll showed the Democrats absolutely crushing the Republicans in the Governor's race. Safe for Bush.
|Electoral Votes: 12|
Background: They like them liberal in Massachusettes. Reagan did carry the state twice (barely), and Ike took it twice, but that's about it since 1924. Most of the time it has not been very close at all.
|1/03||Mass. Insight||Link||457 Voters||4%||Bush||37%||Kerry||53%|
|4/03||Mass. Insight||Link||457 Voters||4%||Bush||49%||Kerry||43%|
|12/03||KRC Communications Research||Link||RV||4%||Bush||38%||Kerry||56%|
Punditry: That last Mass. Insight poll is obviously an outlier. The Democrats are going to win Massachusettes. Safe for Democrats.
And while I am not going to do a separate writeup for it, Washington DC's three electoral votes are Safe for Democrats. Since the random state generator threw out such a Bush-leaning group this time, I'll add DC in now.
|ND (3)||CO (9)||GA (15)||-||-||NM (5)||-||-||VT (3)|
|AL (9)||-||NC (15)||-||-||ME (4)||-||-||MA (12)|
|MT (3)||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||DC (3)|
|Undesignated electoral votes: 457|
Next installment: Nevada, Missouri, California, South Carolina, and Florida
Historical election data are located at Dave Leip's invaluable website.
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