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Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Two
Various

Posted on 02/19/2004 1:56:12 PM PST by Dales

Due to popular demand, I am going to revive my poll tracking and analysis that I did during the 2000 election season. I will be starting things a bit differently this year. Instead of starting off with a comprehensive overview of the entire nation, I am going to start by looking at five states at a time. For this second installment, the random state generator presented me with Colorado, Georgia, North Carolina, Montana, Massachusetts.

Please note that while this batch of states was pretty "Bush friendly", the grouping was determined completely at random using a random number generator.


Colorado
Electoral Votes: 9
2000 Result
Bush 51%
Gore 42%

Background: Colorado is generally considered to be winnable for the Democrats, but historically this has proven to be a solid GOP bastion. Only three times since Franklin Delano Roosevelt was President has a Democrat carried this state (Truman, Johnson, and Clinton against Bush- with a big thanks to Perot taking 23% of the tally).

Polling Data:

Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat
9/8-10/03 Colorado Democratic Party NA RV 4% Bush 42% Unnamed Democrat 35%
12/15-16/03 Public Opinion Strategies NA LV 4.9% Bush 46% Unnamed Democrat 36%

Punditry: Colorado may end up being a single digit margin, but the results will likely never be in doubt. Strong Advantage Bush.


Georgia
Electoral Votes: 15
2000 Result
Bush 55%
Gore 43%

Background: Wallace and Goldwater won here. The only times the Democrats have carried this state since 1960 have been when native son Jimmy Carter was topping the ticket (twice) and when fellow southerner Bill Clinton beat that Yankee George H.W. Bush by a point, while Texan H. Ross Perot siphoned off 13% of the vote. This is not a friendly state for Democrats in Presidential elections, as even Bob Dole won here over Clinton despite Perot taking 7%.

Polling Data:

Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat
10/15/03 Zogby Link 400 LV 4.5% Bush 52% Unnamed Democrat 39%
10/23/03 Shapiro Research Group Link RV 4.5% Bush 49% Unnamed Democrat 41%
2/4/04 Shapiro Research Group NA RV 4.5% Bush 47% Unnamed Democrat 44%

Punditry: Take the Shapiro poll with a grain of salt, as they are a Democrat polling firm. I could call this as a strong advantage given the state's history, but on the outside chance that Edwards pulls out the Democrat nomination, I will take the conservative route and designate this race (for now) as Leaning Bush.


North Carolina
Electoral Votes: 15
2000 Result
Bush 56%
Gore 43%

Background: Since Lyndon Johnson's win here, only once have the Democrats taken Tar Heel electors. That's a bit deceptive, however, as many times it was extremely close. Carter lost to Reagan here by only two points in that nationwide blowout. Clinton lost two elections by a combined total of 5%. Yet the Clinton losses are also deceptive, in that the margins would have been considerably larger without Perot and his charts. Simply stated, like much of the south North Carolina votes Republican for President, although a southerner atop the ticket can make things interesting; not always though, as Al Gore demonstrated.

Polling Data:

Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat
9/16/03 Research2000 Link 600 LV 4% Bush 51% Edwards 40%
11/15/03 Research2000 Link 600 LV 4% Bush 54% Edwards 42%
11/25/03 Survey USA Link 563 RV 4.2% Bush 53% Kerry 39%
11/25/03 Survey USA Link 563 RV 4.2% Bush 52% Edwards 45%

Punditry: Obviously, this state is more interesting if Edwards somehow comes from behind to take down Kerry. Polls consistently show Bush leading all comers here by around 10-15%, and the state leans his way. Leaning Bush.


Montana
Electoral Votes: 3
2000 Result
Bush 58%
Gore 33%

Background: Big Sky will occasionally vote for a Democrat, but generally not for any non-Montana Democrats. For example, the Governor's race may end up being very competitive while the Presidential race is not. Since the Goldwater debacle, only Bill Clinton has won here, during his first campaign, and then only with Ross Perot taking over a quarter of the votes.

Polling Data:

Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat
5/16/03 Mason-Dixon Link RV 4% Bush 52% Unnamed Democrat 27%

Punditry: An interesting thing about the wording of the reporting for that poll- the newspaper phrased it that 52% would vote for Bush, while 27% would definitely vote against him and another 18% would consider voting for a Democrat. That latter phrasing is an attempt to make things appear closer than they really are; a more accurate way of describing those 18% would be "undecided". Another interesting thing is that this poll showed the Democrats absolutely crushing the Republicans in the Governor's race. Safe for Bush.


Massachusettes
Electoral Votes: 12
2000 Result
Gore 60%
Bush 33%

Background: They like them liberal in Massachusettes. Reagan did carry the state twice (barely), and Ike took it twice, but that's about it since 1924. Most of the time it has not been very close at all.

Polling Data:

Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat
1/03 Mass. Insight Link 457 Voters 4% Bush 37% Kerry 53%
4/03 Mass. Insight Link 457 Voters 4% Bush 49% Kerry 43%
12/03 KRC Communications Research Link RV 4% Bush 38% Kerry 56%

Punditry: That last Mass. Insight poll is obviously an outlier. The Democrats are going to win Massachusettes. Safe for Democrats.

And while I am not going to do a separate writeup for it, Washington DC's three electoral votes are Safe for Democrats. Since the random state generator threw out such a Bush-leaning group this time, I'll add DC in now.


Summary Table
  Bush Democrat
  Safe Strong Lean Slight Tossup Slight Lean Strong Safe
  ND (3) CO (9) GA (15) - - NM (5) - - VT (3)
  AL (9) - NC (15) - - ME (4) - - MA (12)
  MT (3) - - - - - - - DC (3)
Designation
Total:
9 9 30 - - 9 - - 18
Candidate
Total:
54 9 18
Undesignated electoral votes: 457

Next installment: Nevada, Missouri, California, South Carolina, and Florida

Historical election data are located at Dave Leip's invaluable website.

Installment One


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections; US: Colorado; US: Georgia; US: Massachusetts; US: Montana; US: North Carolina
KEYWORDS: 2004; dales; ecb; electionpresident; electoralcollege; gwb2004
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I may or may not get to the next batch by tomorrow.
1 posted on 02/19/2004 1:56:12 PM PST by Dales
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To: Neets
Here you go.
2 posted on 02/19/2004 1:56:39 PM PST by Dales
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To: Neets
Pls add me to the ping list.
3 posted on 02/19/2004 1:58:36 PM PST by Augustus McCrae (We don't rent pigs. "uva uvam videndo varia fit")
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To: Dales
Interesting. Can you ping me to future installments?
4 posted on 02/19/2004 2:05:07 PM PST by WinOne4TheGipper (Just because you cause confusion every time you open your mouth, that doesn't make you intellectual.)
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To: Dales
ping me also
5 posted on 02/19/2004 2:05:12 PM PST by not-alone
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To: Dales
ping me as well please
6 posted on 02/19/2004 2:09:31 PM PST by scarface367 (This tagline known to the state of California to cause cancer in laboratory animals)
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To: Dales
Oooh, ping me too please.
7 posted on 02/19/2004 2:09:48 PM PST by Fun Bob
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To: Dales
Nice to see you again......look forward to future installments.
8 posted on 02/19/2004 2:10:48 PM PST by Dog
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To: Dales
read later
9 posted on 02/19/2004 2:13:19 PM PST by LiteKeeper
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To: Dales
Nice work -- thank you. Got room for one more on your ping list?
10 posted on 02/19/2004 2:15:34 PM PST by Semper911 (For some people, bread and circus are not enough. Hence, FreeRepublic.com)
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To: Dales
Ping me too, please.

Thanks, this is great. (I first started lurking on FR after the 2000 election. At that time, I was told that it was the best place to go for news updates and insights. That proved to be true then)

Thanks
11 posted on 02/19/2004 2:15:57 PM PST by Iron Eagle
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To: Semper911
So Montana is God's country - - what does that make Massachusetts?
12 posted on 02/19/2004 2:19:00 PM PST by churchillbuff (?)
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To: churchillbuff
Agree generally, but I fail to see why the "Southern" but hard-leftist Edwards, would if nominated do any better in GA and NC, than the DC-raised "Southerner" Al Gore did in 2000:

coming off 8 yrs of alleged peace and prosperity, the Gore ticket did poorly in GA and NC, and of course failed to carry even TN or Arkansas.

13 posted on 02/19/2004 2:24:05 PM PST by Chris Talk (What Earth now is, Mars once was. What Mars now is, Earth will become.)
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To: Dales; nevergiveup; scan58; AuH2ORepublican; BoomerBob; Galatians513; onyx; KJacob; ...
Ping to Installment #2
14 posted on 02/19/2004 2:26:09 PM PST by Neets (Complainers change their complaints, but they never reduce the amount of time spent in complaining.~)
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To: Anitius Severinus Boethius; Texas2step; GodBlessPeggyNoonan; guardian_of_liberty; ...
Ping to Installment Two
15 posted on 02/19/2004 2:30:16 PM PST by Neets (Complainers change their complaints, but they never reduce the amount of time spent in complaining.~)
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To: Chris Talk
Edwards is from South Carolina. He represents North Carolina. Those states border on Georgia. That has a tendency to sway, even if it's not enough, some votes.
16 posted on 02/19/2004 2:33:08 PM PST by WinOne4TheGipper (Just because you cause confusion every time you open your mouth, that doesn't make you intellectual.)
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To: Dales
THANKYOU FOR THIS Please add me to ping list....

17 posted on 02/19/2004 2:37:53 PM PST by alisasny (John Kerry is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I've ever known in my life.)
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To: Dales
Please ping me as well.

Thank you.
18 posted on 02/19/2004 2:39:42 PM PST by RWR8189 (Its Morning in America Again!)
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To: Neets

Thank you, Neets.

And thank you too, Dales, of course. :)
19 posted on 02/19/2004 2:42:26 PM PST by onyx (Your secrets are safe with me and all my friends.)
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To: Neets; All
Thanks for the ping, Neets!

Hey, everyone, Neets has graciously agreed to run Dales ping list as Dales is too busy getting all this data to run ping lists.

Ping Neets to get added to the list. Thanks, again, Neets.
20 posted on 02/19/2004 2:44:26 PM PST by Texas2step (Reformed passion thread instigator ... but don't tell anyone.)
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