Posted on 09/11/2015 1:49:35 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
One of the most knowledgeable and respected political analysts in the country has changed his mind about Donald Trump, now believing the real estate tycoon is for real and is in it for the long haul.
Stuart Rothenberg first thought that “once Iowa Republicans start to see the caucuses as an opportunity to select the next president, rather than an opportunity to express their frustration and anger, they will turn away from Trump (and other outsiders) and toward politically experienced, mainstream contenders.”
But with the recent rise in Trump’s favorable rating, and after speaking with GOP strategists in Iowa, Rothenberg now believes Trump is a viable candidate.
Roll Call:
Trump’s favorable rating jumped from 27 percent in the May Selzer & Company’s Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics to 61 percent in the August 23-25 Selzer survey. At the same time, his unfavorable rating dropped from 63 percent to a more manageable 35 percent.
Trump’s positioning improved in other ways, as well. In May, a clear majority of likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers — 58 percent — said they could never support him. That number fell to 29 percent in the most recent Selzer poll.
Remarkably, more likely caucus attendees said they could never vote for Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (43 percent), New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (48 percent), Ohio Gov. John R. Kasich (40 percent), former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (39 percent), former Texas Gov. Rick Perry (35 percent) and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum (35 percent) than said they could never support Trump for president.
Trump’s image in Iowa has improved at the same time his flaws, shortcomings and liabilities have become more apparent. For now, however, many voters just don’t seem to care. The Trump persona is compelling.
A friend of mine who has spent many years in politics recently emailed me from a Florida airport after sitting next to two women who were lifelong Democrats but intended to vote for Trump.
“They think someone needs to fundamentally change the political culture. They believe his policies are less important than his no-bullshit posture. Amazing,” he wrote.
Veteran Republican strategists involved in the GOP race (and working for other candidates) now tell me they believe Trump is in the race for the long haul and can and will win delegates, starting in Iowa, given that contests before March 15 are required to award delegates on the basis of proportional representation.
Trump’s early strength among the party’s most conservative and frustrated voters could help him amass a substantial number of delegates in the South (which has many early March contests).
So, I can no longer simply dismiss Trump (and the other “non-politicians”) as evidence of a Republican temper tantrum that will automatically fade into oblivion. Indeed, GOP insiders are worrying that Trump could well earn himself a speaking slot at the party’s convention, adding to the party’s general election challenges.
The significance of Rothenberg’s about-face is that most pollsters and non-GOP analysts are still saying Trump will flame out, melt down, or otherwise implode due to his boorish, insulting manner. But Rothenberg has discovered that Trumpbots simply don’t care what the candidate says, even if it’s offensive, bigoted, or factually incorrect. This contributes to his belief that Trump’s numbers are for real and will translate into delegates once the voting begins in Iowa.
Rothenberg also gives a thumbnail sketch of several candidates and where they stand at this point in the race. Read the whole analysis in Roll Call.
I’m waiting for the GOP to give up on trying to destroy him & instead try to co-opt him.
A speaking slot? LOL. They're clearly worried about more than that.
I think they are more worried about a cleaning of the party internally. I think the republican party has growing in it the same rot that has destroyed the democratic party.
Cleaning of the party internally? How do you give an elephant a high colonic?
When you win the nomination, by definition, you get a speaking slot.
This is the GOP. They're trying to do both at the same time.
It’s amazing to watch them work through their denial.
They’re worried Trump is going to tell them: “You’re fired!”
IT IS TIME FOR THE RINO CLASS TO HOLD THEIR DAMNED NOSES LIKE MANY REAL CONSERVATIVE HAVE THE LAST 6 ELECTIONS !! FREE CLOTHES PINS RIGHT HERE. You wouldn’t vote in hillary would you? Don’t you want those great Supreme Court nominees? I hear that romney is just furious over Trump. Ill bet.
Folks, this is all about the money elite. They can’t buy Trump!! They are lost in space. They can’t screw America anymore with trade deals designed to fill the pockets of their donors!! This is a once in a life time chance to turn this country around and make it great again. Millions now agree.
Carefully?
Why did’nt Rothenberg call me? Even a non-pundit like me knew Trump would win in Iowa. WOuld have saved him the embarrassment of admitting his blunder.
Thank you, Captain Obvious!
Well.....lol...
If I wanted another Teddy Roosevelt, I would be a supporter..but I don’t..
I think one major political mistake should not lead to another..
Having said that, I still don’t know what I will do if he makes it to the nomination. I note that he has to get through the convention as well.
It’s going to be interesting to be sure.
George Will on Suicide watch (jk)
___________________________________________________
George Will has been so irrelevant for so long, he might as well be dead.
The assassination of President McKinley in September 1901 meant that at age 42, Roosevelt had become President of the United States, the youngest in history. Leading his party and country into the Progressive Era, he championed his "Square Deal" domestic policies, promising the average citizen fairness, breaking of trusts, regulation of railroads, and pure food and drugs.
Making conservation a top priority, he established myriad new national parks, forests, and monuments in order to preserve the nation's natural resources.
In foreign policy, he concentrated on Central America, where he began construction of the Panama Canal. He also greatly expanded the United States Navy and sent the Great White Fleet on a world tour to project the United States' naval power. His successful efforts to end the Russo-Japanese War won him the 1906 Nobel Peace Prize.
Reelected in 1904, he continued pursuit of progressive policies, eventually culminating in blockage of his legislative agenda in Congress.
Roosevelt successfully groomed his close friend, William Howard Taft, for the presidency. After leaving office, he went on safari in Africa and toured Europe. Returning to the USA, he became frustrated with Taft's approach as his successor, trying, but failing to win the nomination in 1912. He founded his own party, the Progressive "Bull Moose" Party, and called for wide-ranging progressive reforms. The split allowed the Democrats to win the White House and Congress in 1912; those Republicans aligned with Taft would control the Republican Party for decades.
There's a reckoning coming for these a$$holes. And I mean the ones who toss around cracks like "Trumpbots."
Interesting comparison. But I think Trump is much bigger and more talented than Teddy Roosevelt in so many ways but the analogy is right on as to the will of the people to purge failing leadership and replace it with an ass kicker. After San Juan hill in Cuba — nobody messed with Teddy. After messing with Trump, peoplew wish they were at San Juan hill.
yeah, that’s true, but midway into his second term, Congress went against him, having enough of his agenda. This ticked him off, and that is where the Bull Moose party originated, but it too failed to catch on.
I think Trump would have a problem with congress, both parties, from the get-go....
I think he would do nothing but codify Obama-care and he would do nothing to roll back the executive power grab nor the diminution of the Constitution. In fact I think that problem will accelerate under trump.
These are things that only a true Conservative in the Reagan model would or could deal with.
That’s my view, and we only have one of those running that meets or exceeds my every wish for a president.
That would be Ted Cruz.
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