Posted on 08/22/2015 6:42:10 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Jeb Bush is sticking with the plan.
Despite Donald Trump shooting ahead in the polls and Bush’s debate performance getting bad reviews — and amid signs of frustration on the campaign trail from the former Florida governor himself — his supporters aren’t panicking, multiple sources close to the candidate insist. The Bush camp is projecting confidence that the Summer of Trump will fade to winter, and that Jeb will prevail when it matters.
Here are five reasons Jebworld isn’t freaking out:
1. ‘TRUMP V. SOMEBODY’
Trump is the man to beat, the undisputed leader in national and early-state polls. Even Bush, before launching into a lengthy attack on Trump’s conservative bona fides, called him “the current front-runner” this week and said the billionaire businessman had “done a pretty amazing job to get to that point.”
Before Trump soared, Bush was on top. But while Trump’s climb has corresponded with Bush’s fall, Bush hasn’t crashed to earth.
Being No. 2 is not necessarily a bad thing, Jeb’s allies argue: So much focus on Trump, they say, means the rest of the Republican field isn’t training their guns on him.
“It’s going to come down to Trump v. Somebody and Jeb is the somebody,” said one consultant who has worked for Bush, summing up the thinking inside his orbit.
In this reading, Bush’s amped-up attacks on Trump look more like a calculated strategy than a sign of panic. The more the press focuses on Trump v. Bush, the calculation goes, the less attention the lesser candidates get, starving them of oxygen. A two-man race is good for Jeb.
Bush’s backers acknowledge Trump has unexpectedly soared. But they believe he has a ceiling of support in the high 20s to early 30s – and that it’s unsustainable. Trump’s demise has been long-predicted and refuted, though.
2. JEB, INC.
By any measure, the roughly $120 million amassed by Bush’s campaign, super PAC and leadership PAC is as stunning as it is life-sustaining for the candidate. Money doesn’t buy love in an election, but it puts a down payment on it. And Bush’s camp is about to spread the love.
Right to Rise, the pro-Bush super PAC sitting on $100 million, this week began flooding New Hampshire and Iowa with mailers touting Bush’s conservative record. That’s the first salvo ahead of a TV ad campaign that begins Sept. 15 with an initial $10-$15 million buy and isn’t expected to end until Election Day. This first round of ads are focused on presenting a positive message and introduction of Bush to the broader electorate. But don’t be fooled — the super PAC has its own in-house team of researchers digging into his opponents and could go negative quickly when necessary.
While Bush’s Miami headquarters cheered the announcement, aides in Los Angeles insist it had nothing to do with Trump’s surge.
“We have a long-term strategy and are in the strongest position for a sustained and independent effort to support Jeb Bush,” said Right to Rise spokesman Paul Lindsay.
Beyond its size, the super PAC’s formulation was unique because it was built at the same time Bush’s team was constructing his campaign. By delaying the official announcement of his candidacy, Bush wasn’t bound by some restrictions that limit official candidates from working closely with super PACs. So he raised unlimited sums of money for it and put his longtime adviser, Mike Murphy, in charge. That allowed the super PAC to become infused with Bush’s DNA, so as it grew independent it still reflected the core mission and style of Bush’s official campaign, which hasn’t spent any money on TV, radio or mailers — leaving it free to focus on organization.
3. BUSH, INC.
Before there was Jeb, Inc. 2016, there was Bush, Inc. His grandfather was a U.S. senator; his father and brother were presidents. No other family in modern America has wielded such political power and had such ties to the GOP establishment and Wall Street, where he reestablished relations after leaving the governor’s mansion in 2007. Membership has its privileges. About half of Bush’s total $120 million haul came from donors who previously gave to his brother or father, a recent Associated Press analysis found.
These aren’t small donors — they’re millionaires, billionaires, major CEOs and former ambassadors. Not only are they loyal to the Bush dynasty, they’ve seen insurgent candidates flare up before and aren’t spooked by Trump, unlike some of the less experienced contributors to some of the other campaigns.
“Our donors are very sophisticated people. They know it’s a long-term process. They know about summer bumps in the pre-season,” Murphy said. “They’re happy with where we are.”
Several Bush bundlers told POLITICO they remain committed to Bush and that the Trump surge happening in the dog days of summer couldn’t have been better timed.
“I think he is on the right track. This is a marathon, not a sprint,” said David Beightol, a Bush supporter and fundraiser. “Trump is a celebrity and he gets people’s attention so it makes sense that people are drawn to him. Over time, people will make a decision who is more presidential.”
Bush’s camp is banking on that continued support. He continues to keep an aggressive fundraising schedule. He’ll be in Virginia next week and has a Washington fundraiser slated for Sept. 23.
That said, while no one is bolting to other candidates, several donors said they are looking for Bush to show more fire on the campaign trail and have a breakout moment that shows he has the passion for the job like he did in his first gubernatorial run.
4. THE BUSH RECORD
Underpinning Jeb, Inc.’s belief in its candidate is that no other Republican candidate can match his record as governor: high job growth (more so than any other GOP candidate), a pioneering school-choice voucher program, fighting the teacher’s unions, eliminating a stocks-and-bonds tax, expanding gun-ownership rights, restricting abortions and cutting so much in spending that an ally dubbed him “Veto Corleone” for “whacking” so many parts of the budget.
This is “the Florida story” that Jeb, Inc. has already started to tell. The campaign and his backers say that, in the end, most Republican voters don’t know it and only identify Bush as the son and brother of former presidents. And Bush supporters are counting on Bush’s long history of working to elect Republicans — in contrast to Trump, who has supported and contributed to Democrats.
“Mr. Trump doesn’t have a proven conservative record,” Bush said in Iowa. “He was a Democrat longer in the last decade than he was a Republican.”
Look for Bush’s campaign and super PAC to continue to hammer this message over and over again in the coming weeks as both look to introduce him to the broader electorate.
5. BUSH TIME
With all that money and institutional support, Bush’s team says it’s secure because it has the luxury of time. Though he’s now in second place, Bush isn’t fending off daily questions about his longterm viability. Bush has compared himself to the slow, plodding tortoise in Aesop’s fable. He has also said he intends to be “joyous” on the campaign trail – a conceit he dropped recently as he began using Trump as a foil.
“It is going to be a long fall to the first primary and he’s doing all the right things,” said Richard Cullen, chairman of McGuireWoods, who was appointed a U.S. attorney by President George H.W. Bush. “I think Republicans ultimately are not going to look for soundbites or the flashiest candidates. We’re hungry for a win and he certainly is our best chance of beating Hillary, or Biden, or whoever ultimately is their nominee.”
Bush’s campaign and super PAC have no immediate plans to attack Trump in paid media. That’s what town hall events and free-media appearances on TV are for.
“It’s August,” said Bush spokesman Tim Miller. “Getting to use the August shark attack season to contrast Jeb’s proven conservative record against Trump’s past as a Democrat socialite is something we relish.”
You are right...maybe a box of democrats and race hustlers. (but I repeat myself)
Got any good links on that? Thanks.
Well; Gibbering Jeb will just have to do it without me.
If he winds up being the candidate I will vote for my dog JACK, at least I can trust Jack.
To hell with Rubio; Open Boarders, Gang of 8 puke. CRUZ OR LOSE!
I don’t think you needed the sarcasm tag.
I think the way you made your statement pretty much said it all.
(snicker, snicker)
Sorry, but if Jeb is the nominee, I’m out, I’m staying home, I’m done....
I will not partake in any election where a Bush is on the Ballot.
Its insane that the powers that be, after the fiasco’s that were McCain and Romney honestly think this guy is the guy.
No Bushs no Clintons... been there done that... don’t need to do it again.
DAMN; bring him back, I loved Frank Zappa’s music.
He got slow and plodding right.
6> Jeb ain’t smart enough to understand he’s out-brained and outgunned. His handlers only tell him a little each day to keep him from being overwhelmed by pesky knowledge.
These people never listen do they? Even if Trump did not exist your Boy is never going to be President. We have told you for the last 7 years that we are not going to vote for or support any more GOPE candidates. You either put someone up that can return to its path or just piss off. If the GOP runs a real life American Conservative we will roll out the votes and put them in office. You run another democrat lite or GOPE candidate and we have no reason to get out of bed on election day......
Don’t what you read in my post that you thought was pro-Bush as the nominee....it was anything but that....
I just stated he was a decent guy, but not a leader....not presidential material....
We agree....No more Bush’s in the White House....
I think, alas, that Kasich has a real shot at it. If not him, then somebody like him - low profile, not very well known outside of his region or his district, if he’s a legislator - but at the same time not any of the perennial candidates who have been running in every election cycle since forever (Huckabee, Christie, Santorum, etc.).
However, like them, the anointed GOP candidate will still be able to talk out of both sides of his mouth...and will lose again.
It’s a pity, because I thought we had some good new blood this time around. But I don’t think any of them has a chance, between the Trump show (which has sucked all attention away from the others and is being gleefully encouraged by the Dem press, btw) and the clear desire of the GOP to find somebody who is cast in the Bush, Huckabee, Christie mold without actually being any of them. I wish I were more optimistic.
sounds good to me
it’s difficult to see how anyone is nominated.
that said...I’ll predict it is either Trump or Cruz.
Definitely could be totally wrong, however!!
Jeb is the GopE version of the Yugo...
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