Posted on 03/06/2015 11:24:54 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
A question I often am asked is: "Who would you bet on to win the presidency?" Personally, I don't bet on politics, but here's my current take on the 2016 presidential race—with, of course, the caveat that we don't know which campaigns will turn out the best in terms of organization, strategy, tactics, or execution, much less which candidates will step on land mines along the way.
The Democratic nomination appears fairly straightforward. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is now the prohibitive favorite. If her early stumbles during her book tour, or remarks like the one she made about being "dead broke" after leaving the White House, or impulses such as her inexplicable need to tell an audience of car dealers how many years it had been since she was behind the wheel, were to continue, that could change. (The question is whether she is merely rusty or whether she has truly lost her fastball.) For now, though, let's say there's a 90 percent chance that she'll win the Democratic nomination, and a 10 percent chance that the nod will go to someone else—currently in the mix or not.
Next comes the harder part: the Republican race. With a dozen prospects actively preparing bids and almost a half-dozen more at least contemplating running, it seems useful to try to organize the field. One way to approach the task is to treat it like the NCAA basketball tournament, with Final Four slots atop elimination brackets. There would be an Establishment bracket; a Tea Party/Populist Conservative bracket; a Social, Cultural, and Evangelical Conservative bracket; and, finally, a Secular/Conventional Conservative bracket for candidates who are considerably further to the right than those in the Establishment category but who fit snugly into neither of the other two.
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is the clear favorite in the Establishment bracket, with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina also competing for this slot in the Final Four.
The next category, Tea Party/Populist Conservatives, is currently composed of Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rand Paul of Kentucky, along with retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson. Plausible cases can be made for either Cruz or Paul capturing this bracket; at this point, Paul seems to have the edge.
The Social, Cultural, and Evangelical Conservative bracket includes former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal. Huckabee won the 2008 Iowa caucuses, but Santorum prevailed there in 2012. Early polling in key states gives Huckabee an edge here, but there is a real question about whether the winner of this bracket will have either the fundraising potential or the voter support to compete effectively with the other Final Four competitors.
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is the early front-runner in the Secular/Conventional Conservative bracket; former Texas Gov. Rick Perry is the only other contender right now. Other possible entrants in this category include Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder, and former United Nations Ambassador John Bolton.
Acknowledging that much will inevitably change, at this point Bush and Walker each seem to have about a 1-in-3 chance of winning the nomination—call it 35 percent for each. There's maybe a 1-in-5, or 20 percent, chance that the nod will go to any tea-party candidate, so let's give Cruz and Paul each a 10 percent chance. The rest of the field gets the remaining 10 percent; right now, that's what I estimate is the likelihood that someone other than one of the aforementioned four will win the nomination.
It isn't yet clear whether the dominant theme of the general election will be "Time for a Change" or "Changing American Demographics." The strong pattern of throwing the "in party" out after two terms suggests it will be the former and that the GOP will prevail. If the second theme overshadows the first, however, it will be advantage Democrats: They won the popular vote in five of the past six presidential elections, and the electoral vote in four out of six. Under the "Time for a Change" scenario, Republicans would have upward of a 60 percent chance of winning the White House; if the nation goes for "Changing American Demographics," however, the Democrats could see a similar advantage. If we split the difference, that gives each party a 50-50 chance of winning the presidency.
If Clinton has a 90 percent chance of winning the Democratic nomination, and Democrats have a 50-50 chance of winning the White House, Clinton arguably has roughly a 45 percent chance of being the next president. If Bush and Walker each have a 35 percent shot at the GOP nod, that suggests each has a 1-in-6, or 17.5 percent, chance at the White House. Cruz, Paul, and the rest of the field collectively each have a 10 percent chance of winning the GOP nomination, which in turn gives them each a 5 percent chance of becoming president.
Of course, there is no science here, and this is not a prediction—it is just a framework that can be used to start a conversation. Most die-hard Democrats will likely argue that their side has a better-than 50-50 shot, while rock-ribbed Republicans no doubt feel their side has a strong advantage. But at this early stage, anybody placing a bet would be taking a major gamble.
Republicans need to run the best person we can find... and NOT worry about 'playing' to women, or playing to blacks or playing to whoever...
The country will be needing a War President soon - and we have to go with the person who has the best chance of winning...and fighting ... for all of us.
Will Obama leave office in 2017?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-backroom/3264777/posts
I think it’ll take Ted Cruz to right this Republic of ours.
I agree. He seems to be the only one interested in standing for the citizens and the Constitution.
He’s Our Benjamin Netanyahu!
Local talk here in Indiana is that Pence is standing aside now that Bush is in the race, supposedly feeling Bush is going to vacuum up all the money.
As long as the conservatives can unite behind one candidate, then Bush comes in second place.
That photo is proof that many young women don’t have the brain power of gnats.
What fastball? Her only election wins were for US Senate in NY. That's more like hitting a tee-ball.
Christie? Huckleberry? Hitlery??
Ol Charlie must have this piece in the can for a few weeks.
Not very relevant the day before its published.
A photo 2 seconds later and they’d all be texting and checkin FB.
On March 5 Neil Cavuto was talking to someone named Mark Everson, a former IRS commissioner, who was described as running for President (as a Republican). First that I ever heard of him. He is in favor of limiting Presidents to one term.
On March 5 Neil Cavuto was talking to someone named Mark Everson, a former IRS commissioner, who was described as running for President (as a Republican). First that I ever heard of him. He is in favor of limiting Presidents to one term.
supposedly feeling Bush is going to vacuum up all the money.
*******************
Here are some articles about Bush and his money raising.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/02/jeb-bush-fundraiser-100k-per-ticket-115086.html
http://www.texastribune.org/2015/03/05/jeb-bush-picks-major-east-texas-fundraiser/
Who here actually thinks that Rand Paul beats Ted Cruz?Just the astroturf, in which category we find the writer of this screed. Bobby Jindal would beat Rand Paul, and clearly Scott Walker is ahead of both Paul and Cruz (combined), yet the shill persists in comparisons between Cruz and Paul. The shill never mentions anyone but Shrillery on the Demagogic Party side of the race, and the only thing that would help her campaign look better now is self-immolation a la those monks during the Vietnam War.
If I am not mistaken, the author “forgot” Sarah Palin.
What a doofus he is.
(went to check the article once again, yup it’s written by a guy).
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