Posted on 10/25/2024 9:16:41 AM PDT by Signalman
We've been reporting how the polls have been starting to amass for former President Donald Trump, even in the national vote. We've had multiple polls now that have put Trump up two or three points in the national vote — HarrisX/Forbes, the Wall Street Journal, Rasmussen, and even CNBC.
That had us at a 0.2 lead for Vice President Kamala Harris in the Real Clear Politics average, with her barely hanging on and only because of ridiculous polls like Morning Consult. I said one more poll could probably flip it.
New WSJ Poll Is a Devastating Back-Breaker for Kamala Harris
Well, now we're at a tie with the new NYT/Siena poll that puts the national vote at a tie in the head-to-head at 48 percent, and Trump up by one in the full field, 47 to 46 percent.
That puts the Real Clear Politics average at a tie at 48.5
You could hardly ask for better momentum in the right direction at this point. Bad cross tab? That has her up with independents. Good cross tab? Trump is up 49-46 with "who would do a better job of handling the issue you think is most important?" He's also got stunning Hispanic numbers there at 42 percent for him, and he captures the "other" category. He's also up by three with non-2020 voters. Plus, any myth of any real "Republicans for Harris" thing is blown here in the cross tabs.
Now, again, if you accept the Electoral College bias argument that anything under +2 for Harris is advantage Trump, a tie would pretty much tell you what great shape he's in — that would be considered a walkaway.
But even without that bias being factored in, it's looking like he could win and win the popular vote, too. That's astonishing, given recent history, which tends to have Democrats up in the popular vote. But it's Kamala Harris, a historically bad candidate. And wouldn't that be a true kick in the head to the game-playing, democracy-attacking Democrats who replaced Biden?
If we look at the 2020 race at this time on the RCP, Joe Biden was +8 and he officially barely won. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was up 5.1 percent and she lost.
Here's what CNN's Harry Enten is now saying about the popular vote possibility — he could be the first Republican to win it in 20 years.
Now, as Enten notes, there is the theoretical possibility that she still has a chance to win by grabbing up the necessary swing states. But Trump is still leading in all the battleground states as well at 0.9 lead.
Right now, he appears to have all the momentum, and he's holding them. But they're still pretty tight, with six states under 2.0 and Georgia at 2.2.
If those leads hold, he's at 312, and he has a massive win.
So, we still need the pedal to the metal to ensure that he takes these swing states.
They probably know that it will be even LESS believable that the dem won than in 2020.
Some are long term thinkers and don’t want to start something they can’t finish.
I agree about 2028.
A “dark horse” candidate, who has been groomed since forever will pop on the scene
It may be that Trump is looking likely to overcome the cheat so they are cutting losses.
______________________________________________________
The Democrats have a real problem to consider. If Trump wins then there will be serious investigations and legal actions on the cheaters. If Harris wins then they don’t worry about it because they will be in charge. I think that if they think they will lose even with the cheating then they will want to abandon the cheating and avoid getting caught and doing serious jail time. That will make the margin of victory very large.
I am shocked that Trump is not ahead by 20%. It does not speak well for the intelligence of almost half of the country.
Run through the tape, folks. Run through the tape. And then another ten yards.
If you take your eyes off the line, you could stumble. There is plenty of time to chest pound after Election Day.
According to some political insiders I’ve read in the past couple of weeks, Biden was supposed to bow out, and allow the DNC to run mini primaries. Biden pretty much said, “Okay”…and then he endorsed Harris as a big F U to Pelosi and Obama. Once he endorsed Harris, it was over.
Harris had access to all of the campaign cash and my bet is that they are going to spend every nickel and the democratic consultants will walk away will hundreds of millions of dollars.
That campaign cash would not have been available to any other candidate.
It’s all about the Benjamin’s.
I cannot wait to start hearing the leaks from the Harris campaign. They will be slicing at each other like caged tigers.
It will be glorious.
The remonstrations are likely to be more vitriolic than we’ve seen in awhile. This was an incumbency that was lost…to the guy they took it from four years ago.
There will be great pain and gnashing of teeth…how much is public, well, likely a lot in this day and age. They will pivot to sabotage at some point, and that may keep it tamped down some. Likely it depends on the margin.
Trump’s economic plan will prevent any “sinking”.
Ok Eeyore, Ok.
Polls are about manipulating, not measuring, public opinion.
Trump Train gathering steam
*******
Provided the Dems don’t cheat and blow up the tracks.
” the democratic consultants will walk away will hundreds of millions of dollars.”
See—the economy is doing great....
if you are a Democrat grifter.
Somebody on the Harris staff was probably responsible for nailing down the endorsements of the Washington Post and the LA Times.
I hope they fled to a foreign country by now.
:-)
That’s what I think.
That’s a plausible theory, I’m just not sure that’s all there is to it.
I agree. She should not have anywhere near 50%. Yes, we’re screwed. Prepare accordingly.
Ding Ding.
I Agree.
Trump has only one shot. Drill baby Drill.
Pretty soon we wont be able to pay the interest on our Debt.
And she likely doesn’t. The propaganda outlets/media driven by the DS make it look like she has a chance. All should remember what is best in life: To crush your enemies, see them driven before you and hear the lamentations of their women. The demo-commies are our enemies, and they infest the media, academia and bureaucracies at every level.
They got greedy. They wanted that war chest of the Biden-Harris campaign.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.