Posted on 10/25/2024 9:16:41 AM PDT by Signalman
We've been reporting how the polls have been starting to amass for former President Donald Trump, even in the national vote. We've had multiple polls now that have put Trump up two or three points in the national vote — HarrisX/Forbes, the Wall Street Journal, Rasmussen, and even CNBC.
That had us at a 0.2 lead for Vice President Kamala Harris in the Real Clear Politics average, with her barely hanging on and only because of ridiculous polls like Morning Consult. I said one more poll could probably flip it.
New WSJ Poll Is a Devastating Back-Breaker for Kamala Harris
Well, now we're at a tie with the new NYT/Siena poll that puts the national vote at a tie in the head-to-head at 48 percent, and Trump up by one in the full field, 47 to 46 percent.
That puts the Real Clear Politics average at a tie at 48.5
You could hardly ask for better momentum in the right direction at this point. Bad cross tab? That has her up with independents. Good cross tab? Trump is up 49-46 with "who would do a better job of handling the issue you think is most important?" He's also got stunning Hispanic numbers there at 42 percent for him, and he captures the "other" category. He's also up by three with non-2020 voters. Plus, any myth of any real "Republicans for Harris" thing is blown here in the cross tabs.
Now, again, if you accept the Electoral College bias argument that anything under +2 for Harris is advantage Trump, a tie would pretty much tell you what great shape he's in — that would be considered a walkaway.
But even without that bias being factored in, it's looking like he could win and win the popular vote, too. That's astonishing, given recent history, which tends to have Democrats up in the popular vote. But it's Kamala Harris, a historically bad candidate. And wouldn't that be a true kick in the head to the game-playing, democracy-attacking Democrats who replaced Biden?
If we look at the 2020 race at this time on the RCP, Joe Biden was +8 and he officially barely won. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was up 5.1 percent and she lost.
Here's what CNN's Harry Enten is now saying about the popular vote possibility — he could be the first Republican to win it in 20 years.
Now, as Enten notes, there is the theoretical possibility that she still has a chance to win by grabbing up the necessary swing states. But Trump is still leading in all the battleground states as well at 0.9 lead.
Right now, he appears to have all the momentum, and he's holding them. But they're still pretty tight, with six states under 2.0 and Georgia at 2.2.
If those leads hold, he's at 312, and he has a massive win.
So, we still need the pedal to the metal to ensure that he takes these swing states.
Trump Train gathering steam
Polls have begun taking the CYA approach to the election.
That this is close means the US is screwed. Mel Gibson insulted fence posts when he said Harris was as dumb as one.
Harris shouldn’t poll over 30%
I have to ask myself, “ why did the Democrats decide to give the election away this time”? Or are they really just that bad anymore?
The state polls always lag behind—I think we are looking at 3 to 5 percent real Trump leads in all the key swing states once the dust settles.
Then it would match the national numbers.
Is that above the cheat numbers in the crooked urban precincts—imho yes it is.
I think the Dems will throw in the towel on this one—and get a much tougher candidate in 2028.
Because the ship is sinking and they want DJT to be captain when it goes under
Any shifts that are within the MOE are what is known as ‘statistically insignificant.’ No amount of ‘analysis’ can overcome the limits inherent in the method.
I actually expect Joe to come out and say something to finish Kamala off. Jill is bitter, their party is losing anyway — why not make them really, really sorry for their coup?
Exactly. It’s clear they are throwing the election to Trump, for that very reason. Trump has to be aware of this.
I read another post earlier that Georgia is holding some sort of practice drill to test their cyber security system — on Election Day. Yes, on Nov. 5.
So I don’t think the Dems are planning on just giving it away (esp with help from RINOs).
You underestimate numbers of women who want no abortion restrictions. Every initiative in every state restricting abortions lost badly.
Are any of these polls factoring in the massive cheat the Dems are running?
I hope that on Election night that Trump is so far ahead that any shenanigans in PA, GA, Michigan, etc won’t even matter.
It may be that Trump is looking likely to overcome the cheat so they are cutting losses.
There are a lot of men who want women to kill their kids as well.
Joe needs to get out on the WH lawn and remind people to write in his name on election day.
The expressions on the faces of the White House aides would be one for the ages.
Lol.
It’s an interesting election cycle. For the past 20 years or so, the assumption has been that due to the Electoral College the Democrats need to be comfortably ahead in the popular vote in order to win a Presidential election. But one of the key factors in the 2024 race is that Trump appears to be capturing much higher portions of the black and Latino vote than previous Republican candidates. What we may be seeing is Trump starting to close the gap in the deep-blue states. Obviously not enough to win them but perhaps enough to make the popular vote closer without having a corresponding impact on the swing states, especially the blue wall PA/WI/MI.
The ridiculous Hitler primal scream was their last act of desperation.
Now I expect to see the rise of deep state sabotage…this year’s version of Russia, Russia, Russia.
I am sure that is true as well. Some men do not want the burden of supporting children they created. Those are not real men.
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