Posted on 07/31/2024 9:24:44 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
A disturbance in the Atlantic continues to be watched for possible formation into a tropical storm, but there are multiple scenarios in play when it comes to the track of this system as it nears the Bahamas and the southeastern United States by this weekend.
Where is the disturbance now? The tropical wave that might eventually grow into a tropical depression or storm is located near the Leeward Islands, or near the "X" in the graphic below, according to the National Hurricane Center.
It's been battling an abundance of dry air for days but is now showing some signs of increased shower and thunderstorm development. That could be a sign the system is in the beginning stages of some slow organization.
When and where could it develop? The National Hurricane Center says development, if it occurs, won't happen until sometime by this weekend, generally in the shaded area on the map below. Most computer models suggest that development could occur by Friday or this weekend.
(Excerpt) Read more at weather.com ...
I am in St Augustine, and rain falls 7 days in row, followed by no rain for 7 days. I wish it rained every other day instead.
The weather channel was so desperate for weather news last week they were forced to report on a typhoon hitting china......very tellling
Coveting thy neighbors Cadillac…. cool cars.
Here in Denver, it’s rained about, I’d guess, 1/2 inch in the past four months. Mid to upper 90s, 10% humidity typical.
Right on time for hurricane season.
Debby does Daytona...
Just like last year...and the year before...and the year before etc etc
The site states “0% chance” of tropical storm formation. Doesn’t seem too ominous yet.
Yep. Every afternoon or early evening.
The atmosphere is an unstable system in constant motion with all the variables changing all the time.
If they guaranteed it and it didn't happen, they'd be eviscerated for that, too.
They are in a lose/lose situation in the eyes of everyone who has next to no understanding of what drives the weather.
Joe Bastardi knows his stuff.
We’ve been pretty dry here in NH, too.
A nearby pond is way down. We need rain, and yet other areas not to far away are under a flood watch.
Geography plays a role in that. In bot places we lived, here and in NY, we often see the storms being deflected by the mountains.
My friend in Atlanta got 8 inches of rain recently.
Well, some day the weather patterns will change and we’ll get it.
Good points
The game is to give more weight to peripheral chances of storm impact in order to avoid complaints that there was inadequate warning if such areas get hit. Meanwhile, the public tends to discount the damage that can be done if the most likely storm course and strength prove true.
Same as those of us who troubleshoot CNC machines and other industrial manufacturing equipment that is very complex, taht could have multiple problems, often with feedback loops similar to weather.
"I think I fixed it", "seeeems like", "dry run it for a while before cutting anything", "could be", "tailgate guarantee" (Which means it is guaranteed until you see the tailgate of my truck driving away), "stand back", "keep the fire extinguisher handy", etc.
Must be in southern NH.
Pretty soggy in northern NH with some roads still closed due to flood damage.
We've had over 12 inches of rain in the last week.
NH route 3 on Corrigan Hill in Lancaster was closed for a day or 2, then one lane traffic still.
Route 135 still closed and for the foreseeable future.
8 inches in St. Johnsbury, VT night before last.
VT Route 2 was closed for 2 weeks due to a bridge out, opened for a day and closed again due to a mud slide and water over the road.
VT 5 closed in Barnet (road gone) and between St. J and Passumpsic was closed last night, now one lane.
Many secondary roads severely damaged or gone entirely, a lot of folks stranded.
Buffalo road in Lancaster, about 1/2 mile of it became a canyon, repaired to one lane for a few days, then gone again.
A few houses washed away in St. J and area, Plainfield, VT, etc., many under were under a few feet of water, now mud filled, many twice in 2 weeks.
There's a LOT more, these are just examples.
True- for those new to the SE/FL/GA/SC/NC. Those who have been through more than 10 in their lives in these areas, do pay attention- the cut point will begin when a cyclone forms and begins to “steer” by the ridges. Especially E.Coast of FL, Bahamas— these people have been through it, many times.
I have lived in Florida for most of my life and have been through many hurricanes. Today’s technology for hurricane track prediction is quite good, especially 2-3 days out.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.