Posted on 07/30/2024 6:56:58 AM PDT by Phoenix8
NEW: Forecaster who has predicted almost every election since 1984, says Kamala Harris will likely win the election in November.
Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted Trump would win in 2016 & Biden in 2020, says his forecasts point to a Harris win.
Lichtman uses '13 keys' to make his predictions:
The "keys" are: – party mandate – contest – incumbency – third party – short-term economy – long-term economy – policy change, – social unrest – scandal – foreign/military failure – foreign/military success – incumbent charisma – challenger charisma
As of now, Harris has 6 keys and Trump only has 3.
Lichtman still has four keys to hand out but Harris is already at 6 meaning, in his own words, "a lot would have to go wrong for Democrats to lose."
Lichtman is waiting until the DNC to make his final prediction.
(Excerpt) Read more at x.com ...
She is the bright shiny new thing for the dems.
Wait until more people get to know her.
She is a nothing…just another puppet.
What will the convention be like…just hating Trump and us is my guess.
Saving their democracy which no so many really wants once they know what it is.
We need to concentrate on not letting them steal it.
I totally agree with you - Trump should be emphasizing policies and not insults which just make her seem sympathetic.
At this point JD seems to be a big mistake.
Lichtman has an inside source telling him this. That is why he picked her.
And the death of America.
Why would “black women” vote for her. She isn’t “black”.
this guy is TOTALLY FOS as Trump WON in 2020 but his ilk stole it. Pathetic losers, all.
Thanks for the advice straight from the Bush Crime Family. Now tell us what great Reagan conservative you are like all of the Bush liars.
Because she is not Caucasian either.
He’s a RAT operative, but he has been wrong before
“Never underestimate the stupidity of the American public.”
Completely true!
See post 71.
Can you answer it (without cheating)?
Prior to the attempt on Trump’s life the media would castigate Kamala and accurately so. When Biden said he would not run the DNC sent out the talking points to the Media. Now they describe Kamala as a combination of Winston Churchill, Jesus and the cover of Vogue.
This guy’s a clown......full of himself
Thanks for being honest as well.
I apologize for saying that your dream ticket is Jeb Bush/Nikki Haley.
Your dream ticket is actually a repeat of Romney/Ryan! I’m sure they’d get all that stuff done in a jiffy.
Key 3: Incumbent seeking re-election
Lichtman says an incumbent president seeking re-election has several advantages, such as the ability to set the national agenda, and often attracts far more media attention than a non-incumbent. The president can also benefit from the rally 'round the flag effect in times of crisis.
Lichtman also says that presidents running for re-election rarely face the strongest candidates from the challenging party, who typically refrain from running unless the president is seen as very vulnerable.
This is certainly not the case this year so I am puzzled why he is going against his own guidance and observation.
This guy predicted a Biden win though. Even though by this measure, Biden held NO KEYS at the time.
Maybe there’s one more key that this guy knows about, and it trumps all the others put together: election fraud.
I cannot listen to anything someone says while they are wearing such a ridiculous hairpiece.
First of all, this guy was saying two weeks ago that the best chance the Dems had to win was if Biden stayed at the head of the ticket.
Secondly, I read this yesterday and the guy said that much was still fluid and he wasn’t ready to say for certain.
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