Posted on 01/28/2024 9:44:37 AM PST by Chode
Even as global attention is pulled in a dozen different directions, the fighting in Ukraine continues amidst a winter cold that provides better conditions than the mud seasons. .
Russia's offensive has focused on Avidiivka, but fighting has been hard at multiple places along the front.
In this episode, we look at the recent fighting, from Avidiivka to the great Patriot missile road trip, examine the available loss data, look into the question of casualties and mobilisation (including some Sergei Shoigu math) and close out by touching on the wider sustainability issues probably deserve further discussion.
Bookmark, short on time today.
The big picture from what I’ve gathered so far here and elsewhere is that Russia is very slowly taking small bites of territory and Ukraine is worried about material shortages, as always. There are no death/wounded stats for either side that can be trusted. The slow pace of the ground movement indicates both sides are taking pretty heavy losses. That a loser over time for Ukraine.
If the arms supply dries up, the war ends quickly. If the arms supply keeps up, Ukraine continues to lose slowly.
Your thoughts?
About 6 weeks until the whole area turns back into shell churned mud...
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If the arms supply dries up, the war ends quickly. If the arms supply keeps up, Ukraine continues to lose slowly.
prettymuch
a war of attrition for UKR, what happens first, do they run out of projos or do the tubes wear out???
defense is on their side
but RUS can’t sustain their losses attacking either...
or less
Putin has signaled repeatedly that he is open to a peace deal of some sort, and the accumulating damage to Russia is more severe than is generally realized. The critical imponderables for Ukraine are Western support and the prospects for a coup against Putin. For the US and Europe, the Ukraine War is integral to security challenges around the world, with continuing losses or a defeat a plus. My guess is that the war will continue.
The Russians have always fought their wars like this.
If Trump wins, there will be a ceasefire signed by January 2025.
When put to the test of combat though, it was revealed that corruption, incompetence, and lack of genuine reforms had subverted the effort and led to the humiliation of the Russian army in the 2023 invasion of Ukraine. Now Russia is reverting to her traditional, casualty heavy tactics. I do not believe that they will be successful, at least not at a cost that a Russia in demographic and industrial decline can afford.
Oliver Stone's documentary about Putin proved (to my eye at least) that he is an intelligent and determined autocrat corrupted by power and wealth and surrounded by yes men. Such a combination rarely ends well.
Putin might win. All he has to do is to hold on until January of 2025. If Trump wins, Putin will demands concessions from Zelensky in order to sign the ceasefire. No EU. No NATO. And Russia gets to keep the occupied territories.
In addition, China and Iran are problematic allies for Russia at best, and the impending seizure of Russian assets abroad will inflict considerable financial pain on Putin and his criminal and oligarch allies. And if Trump is elected in 2024, he will put the screws to Russia and Putin through a hard peace terms. If nothing else, that will end the Left's Trump-Russia line of attack and warn China and Iran that with Trump in charge, the US is not to be messed with.
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